通讯员 据3月2日CNBC报道，欧佩克+能源联盟将通过视频会议召开，以就如何管理市场供应达成共识。
在本周的供应决定出台之际，油价已反弹至疫情爆发前的水平，美国的生产受到严寒的打击，加上疫情的危机继续笼罩市场。
分析师普遍预计，欧佩克+将在当前水平上提高产量，但究竟有多少以及哪些国家将受到影响仍是个问题。一些全球最具影响力的产油国将于周四召开一场关键会议，讨论取消去年部分减产举措。
2020年欧佩克+同意限制石油产量，以提振油价，因为严格的公共卫生措施适逢前所未有的燃料需求冲击。
欧佩克事实上的领导人沙特阿拉伯公开鼓励石油生产国在生产政策上保持“极其谨慎”的态度，警告该组织不要自满，因为需要寻求应对仍然在全球范围内蔓延的疫情危机。
据报道，在上月的一次行业活动上，沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼对那些试图预测欧佩克+下一步行动的人说:“不要试图预测不可预测的事情。”
PVM石油协会(PVM Oil Associates)分析师Tamas Varga表示，他认为欧佩克和非欧佩克合作伙伴在重新平衡市场方面做了“惊人的工作”。然而，尽管全球石油需求正在复苏，但他警告称，复苏仍“非常、非常脆弱”。
值得关注的是俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。俄罗斯的盈亏平衡预算比沙特低得多，所以这两个国家在观点上存在差异，不过，沙特和俄罗斯都会“如愿以偿”。
2020年，欧佩克+最初同意创纪录地将石油日产量削减970万桶，随后将减产幅度降低至770万桶，最终从1月份开始将减产规模削减至720万桶。自2月初至3月，欧佩克主要成员国沙特阿拉伯已自愿额外减产100万桶。
俄罗斯副总理亚历山大 诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)暗示，莫斯科有意增加石油供应，称市场已达到平衡。
SEB首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在一份研究报告中表示：“俄罗斯希望尽快恢复正常生产，而沙特希望在一段时间内享受高油价，并让市场保持紧张状态，而不是放松状态。我们认为两家公司都能得到自己想要的东西。”
他补充称，俄罗斯可能获准进一步增产，而沙特阿拉伯将“部分或可能全部”恢复每日100万桶的额外减产。
沙特阿拉伯的声明表明他们是持谨慎态度的。在新冠肺炎疫苗真正对全球经济活动和石油需求产生作用之前，与其说市场会出现供过于求的情况，不如保持一点紧张情绪。因此，即将举行的欧佩克+会议不太可能对4月份供应造成影响，因为总体结果很可能会让市场出现供应略微短缺，而不是过剩。
值得一提的是，欧佩克+还没有准备好改变当前战略。周二上午，国际基准布伦特原油期货价格报每桶63.01美元，跌幅近1.1%，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格报每桶60.02美元，跌幅超过1%。要知道，石油价格上月攀升至13个月高点。
当前油价似乎延续了上周开始的跌势，原因是市场预期欧佩克+可能会增加全球供应。
Rystad Energy的分析师路易丝·迪克森(Louise Dickson)表示:“我们的预期是，按照他们在2020年12月宣布的政策协议，油价将会上涨。也就是说，日产量增幅不超过50万桶。我们希望这项政策仍然有效。”欧佩克理论上可以增加130万桶/天的产量，但我们认为这次不会过度调整。”
迪克森强调“从市场角度看，俄罗斯将积聚动能，但我们没有看到完全的转变。去年，欧佩克+一直牢牢地掌握在沙特阿拉伯的控制之下，指导政策，做出决定，发号施令等等。而且在对市场和供应进行了一年的调查之后，我认为，欧佩克+不会因为一时冲动而改变路线，将布伦特原油价格维持在65美元/桶，或者让石油市场日益趋紧。”
分析师预计，欧佩克+将讨论在周四允许至多每天130万桶的原油重返市场。
王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC
原文如下：
Saudi and Russia are at loggerheads again, but OPEC meeting ‘unlikely to ruin the oil party’
OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will hold a crucial meeting on Thursday to discuss reversing some of the output cuts it made last year.
OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an energy alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, will convene via videoconference in a bid to reach consensus over how to manage supply to the market.
The group last year agreed to restrict the amount of oil it produces in an effort to prop up oil prices as strict public health measures coincided with an unprecedented fuel demand shock.
This week’s supply decision comes at a time when oil prices have rebounded to pre-virus levels, production in the U.S. has taken a hit from freezing storms and the coronavirus pandemic continues to cloud the outlook.
OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has publicly encouraged allied partners to remain “extremely cautious” on production policy, warning the group against complacency as it seeks to navigate the ongoing Covid-19 crisis.
Non-OPEC leader Russia, meanwhile, has indicated it wants to push ahead with a supply increase.
Analysts broadly expect OPEC+ to hike output from current levels, but questions remain over how much exactly and which countries will be affected.
At an industry event last month, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman reportedly said to those trying to foresee the energy alliance’s next move: “Don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
Both Saudi and Russia ‘will get what they want’
Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via telephone that he believed OPEC and non-OPEC partners had done an “amazing job” in rebalancing the market.
However, while the global oil demand is recovering, he warned that the recovery is still “very, very fragile.”
“What really matters here is Russia and Saudi Arabia. The breakeven price for Russia’s budget is much lower than that of Saudi Arabia, so you will see a kind of gap in the views between these two countries,” Varga said.
OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has since taken on voluntary cuts of 1 million from the beginning of February through March.
Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister, appeared to signal Moscow’s intent for a supply increase last month, claiming the market has already balanced.
“Russia wants to move back towards normal production as quickly as possible while Saudi Arabia wants to enjoy high prices a little while longer and rather keep the market on the tight side than the loose side. We think both will get what they want,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB, said in a research note.
Russia will likely be allowed to increase output further, he added, while Saudi Arabia will return “some or potentially all” of its 1 million barrels per day unilateral cut.
Analysts expect OPEC+ to discuss allowing as much as 1.3 million barrels per day back into the market on Thursday.
“Statements from Saudi Arabia indicates that they are on the cautious side. Rather to keep it a little tight a little too long than to run into an oversupply before Covid-19 vaccines have truly made their magic on global economic activity and oil demand,” Schieldrop said.
“The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is thus unlikely to ruin the oil party with respect to April supply as the total outcome is likely going to leave the market slightly short rather than in surplus.”
OPEC+ not yet ready to switch course
International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $63.01 a barrel on Tuesday morning, almost 1.1% lower, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures stood at $60.02, down more than 1%.
Oil prices, having climbed to a 13-month peak last month, appeared to extend losses that began last week on expectations that OPEC+ may be set to increase global supply.
“Our expectation is that they are going to rise in line with their previous policy deal which was announced in December of 2020. And that is to not increase production more than 500,000 barrels per day. We expect that policy to still be valid,” Louise Dickson, analyst at Rystad Energy, told CNBC via telephone.
She added that OPEC could, in theory, increase production by 1.3 million barrels per day, but “we don’t think they are going to overshoot this time around.”
“Russia will build up momentum in their market view, but we don’t see a complete switchover. For the last year, OPEC+ has been really firmly under the reins of Saudi Arabia, guiding the policy, making the calls, calling the shots, etc. And I don’t think that, after a year of such market and supply diligence, the group is ready to switch course just on a whim of $65 Brent or an increasingly tighter oil market,” she said.
