通讯员 据全球能源新闻网2月28日报道，根据IEA石油市场报告(OMR)显示， 2021年全球石油日需求量将增长540万桶，达到9640万桶，恢复到去年因疫情而损失量的60%左右。尽管预计21年第一季度石油需求将从去年第四季度的低点下降100万桶/日，但更有利的经济前景支撑了下半年需求的增强。新数据的整合将2019年的基准产量降低了33万桶/天。
由于欧佩克+的减产幅度有所缓解，非欧佩克+的产量增加，1月份全球石油供应增加了59万桶/天，至9360万桶/天。2月随着沙特阿拉伯实施大规模自愿减产，全球石油产量将出现下降。OPEC+联盟以外国家的前景正在改善，预计2021年将增加83万桶/天，而2020年则减少130万桶/天。
全球隐含存量减少从去年第三季度的每日156万桶加速到第四季度的每日224万桶。去年12月，OECD工业类库存续第五个月下跌。当月库存减少4460万桶(即144万桶/天)，库存为30.63亿桶，比五年平均水平高出1.383亿桶。产品领跌。OECD原油库存比2020年5月的峰值低6280万桶。1月份的数据显示经济继续下滑。
2月初洲际交易所布兰特原油期货升至逾60美元/桶，12个月现货溢价突破4美元/桶，使价格回到疫情前的水平。票据市场推动价格走高，反映了21年下半年有利的整体经济前景和欧佩克+供应削减。现货市场落后于期货市场，因为价差反映了结算货物的一些延迟。
因为遏制新冠疫情蔓延的措施(其传染性更强的变种)严重影响了全球石油需求的近期复苏，石油市场的再平衡在2021年初仍然脆弱。但下半年更为积极的经济前景，以及欧佩克+承诺加快削减过剩石油库存，为油价提供了新的支撑。2月初，市场趋紧的前景将基准原油价格推至一年高点，布伦特原油价格为60美元/桶，西德克萨斯中质原油价格为57美元/桶。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SET TO REACH 96.4 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021
According to the IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) world oil demand is set to grow by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 to reach 96.4 mb/d, recovering around 60% of the volume lost to the pandemic in 2020. While oil demand is expected to fall by 1 mb/d in 1Q21 from already low 4Q20 levels, a more favourable economic outlook underpins stronger demand in the second half of the year. The incorporation of new data lowered the 2019 baseline by 330 kb/d.
Global oil supply rose 590 kb/d in January, to 93.6 mb/d, as OPEC+ cuts eased and non-OPEC+ pumped more. In February, global output is set to fall as Saudi Arabia implements a sizeable voluntary cut. The outlook is improving for countries outside the OPEC+ alliance, with an 830 kb/d gain expected in 2021 versus a 2020 loss of 1.3 mb/d.
Global implied stock draws accelerated from 1.56 mb/d in 3Q20 to 2.24 mb/d in 4Q20. In December, OECD industry stocks fell for the fifth consecutive month. A monthly decline of 44.6 mb (1.44 mb/d) left inventories at 3 063 mb, 138.3 mb above their five-year average. Products led the fall. OECD crude stocks were 62.8 mb below the May 2020 peak. January data show continued declines.
ICE Brent crude futures rose above $60/bbl in early February and the 12-month backwardation breached $4/bbl, returning prices to pre-pandemic levels. Paper markets drove prices higher, reflecting a favourable overall economic outlook for 2H21 and OPEC+ supply cuts. Physical markets have lagged futures as differentials reflect some delays in clearing cargoes.
The rebalancing of the oil market remains fragile in the early part of 2021 as measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, with its more contagious variants, weigh heavily on the near-term recovery in global oil demand. But fresh support has been provided by a more positive economic outlook for the second half of the year, along with a pledge from OPEC+ to hasten the drawdown of surplus oil inventories. The prospect of tighter markets ahead lifted benchmark crude oil prices to one-year highs in early February, with Brent trading at $60/bbl and WTI at $57/bbl.
