据2月27日Rigzone报道，油价创下去年11月以来最大跌幅，美元走强以及围绕通胀的担忧令创下了今年以来最好表现的原油市场承压。
周五，纽约期货市场下跌3.2%，美元走强降低了以美元计价的大宗商品的吸引力。然而，由于全球库存趋紧、需求回升，美国原油基准2月仍实现了近18%的涨幅。根据美国政府的数据，这是2020年美国国内原油产量四年来首次下降。
Tyche Capital Advisors全球宏观计划主管Tariq Zahir表示:“从我们最近看到的走势来看，价格下行的风险要大一些。要想继续走高，需求必须大幅回升。”
原油价格创下今年以来同期最大涨幅，部分原因是欧佩克+产量限制有助于消耗全球库存。此外，摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的数据显示，最近前所未有的寒流导致美国数百万桶原油停产，这意味着石油市场的供应比此前预计的每天短缺约10万桶还要多。随着北海油田进行大规模维护，供应短缺可能在未来几个月恶化。
欧佩克及其盟友将决定石油产量水平，尽管俄罗斯已经表示，它倾向于进一步减少减产，但该国2月的石油产量低于其欧佩克+目标，这意味着它未能充分利用1月份欧佩克+会议后提供的更慷慨的配额。
总部位于康涅狄格州斯坦福德的Tradition Energy主管加里?坎宁安(Gary Cunningham)表示:“我们都知道，欧佩克恢复生产的意向正在笼罩着市场。全球石油供应的持续下降将取决于欧佩克恢复多少产量，以及伊朗的石油产量。”
在价格方面，西德克萨斯中质原油4月份交割价格下跌2.03美元，结算价为每桶61.50美元；美国基准原油价格本周上涨3.8%，将于周五到期的4月份布伦特原油结算价下跌75美分，收于每桶66.13美元；本周该合约上涨5.1%；交易更为活跃的5月份合约下跌1.69美元，收于每桶64.42美元；周四公债收益率飙升，表明通胀加速可能导致货币政策支持力度回落。在疫情期间，货币政策支持助推风险资产上涨。尽管此后全球债券市场已经企稳，但如果货币政策不那么宽松，可能会对大宗商品市场产生连锁反应。
瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)期货部门主管鲍勃?耶格尔(Bob Yawger)表示，“原油处于超级超买区域将出现回调。此外，投资者“仍然担心利率会走高。”
在其他石油市场消息方面，洲际交易所表示，它打算继续对2022年6月后到期、已持有未平仓合约的布伦特原油相关合约使用FOB参考价。
王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Oil Futures Slide As Dollar Gets Stronger
Oil fell the most since November with a stronger dollar and concerns surrounding inflation weighing on crude’s best start to the year on record.
Futures in New York declined 3.2% on Friday, with a rising dollar reducing the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. Yet, the U.S. crude benchmark still managed to post a nearly 18% gain this month as inventories worldwide tighten and pockets of demand return. Domestic crude production dropped in 2020 for the first time in four years, according to the U.S. government.
“Prices have a little bit more risk to the downside from the recent run that we’ve seen,” said Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC. “To continue going higher from here, demand has to come back pretty substantially.”
Crude prices have notched the largest year-to-date gain than in any year prior for the same time period, in part due to OPEC+ production curbs helping to deplete global stockpiles. Plus, the unprecedented cold blast that recently halted millions of barrels of U.S. output means oil markets are about 100,000 barrels a day tighter than previously thought, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Supply scarcity may worsen in the coming months as North Sea fields undergo major maintenance.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will meet next week to decide on output levels. While Russia has signaled it favors a further easing of production cuts, the country’s oil output dipped below its OPEC+ target this month, meaning it failed to take full advantage of the more generous quota it was afforded after January’s OPEC+ meeting.
“We all know the OPEC return to production is looming over the market pretty strongly,” said Gary Cunningham, director at Stamford, Connecticut-based Tradition Energy. Continued declines in global supplies will “depend on how much production OPEC brings back and whether or not the sanctions on Iran are lifted.”
Prices
West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell $2.03 to settle at $61.50 a barrel
The U.S. crude benchmark rose 3.8% this week
Brent for April settlement, which expires on Friday, declined 75 cents to end the session at $66.13 a barrel.
The contract gained 5.1% this week.
The more actively traded May contract declined $1.69 to settle at $64.42 a barrel.
Soaring bond yields on Thursday were the latest sign that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy support that has helped fuel gains in risky assets during the pandemic. While global bonds have since stabilized, a less accommodative approach to monetary policy could have ripple effects across commodity markets.
“Crude oil was in super overbought territory,” and due for a pullback, said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. Plus, investors are “still anxious about rates ripping higher.”
Other oil-market news:
ICE said it intends to continue to use a FOB reference for contracts related to Dated Brent that expire after June 2022 that already have open interest, according to a circular.
