据天然气工业2月26日消息称，咨询公司Wood Mackenzie称，随着航运业实施更严格的碳排放规定，以及替代燃料使用的攀升，未来30年全球对以石油为基础的船用燃料的需求将下降。
联合国国际海事组织(IMO)将于6月正式通过能效法规，目标是到2030年将新船和现有船的碳足迹在2008年的水平上减少40%。
到2050年，国际海事组织的目标是在2008年的水平上减少50%的船舶温室气体排放。
Wood Mackenzie首席分析师Iain Mowat对路透表示，采用即将出台的能效规则将实现国际海事组织的2030年目标，并在2030年导致全球船用燃料需求较目前下降约37万桶/天。
Mowat表示，即便如此，预计到2030年，全球海洋燃料消耗量仍将增长至590万桶/天，目前估计全球海洋燃料消耗量略低于500万桶/天。
Wood Mackenzie周五在一份报告中表示，在海上燃料中使用液化天然气可能限制航运业碳排放的增长，预计到2030年将进一步取代近70万桶/天的燃油。
Mowat说："我们预计，到2050年，船用燃料市场的总规模将降至不到560万桶/天，其中石油燃料市场的总规模不到360万桶/天。"
但Mowat表示，由于液化天然气的碳含量相对于低碳替代品仍较高，在2040年后，由于零碳燃料(如绿色氢生产的甲醇和氨)变得更加普遍，对这种超冷燃料作为船运燃料的需求增长也将放缓。
他表示："要想实现国际海事组织将温室气体排放总量减半的目标，到2050年必须向低碳和零碳燃料转变。” 这将导致到2050年燃油需求进一步下降90万桶/天。
曹海斌 摘译自 天然气工业
原文如下：
Emission cuts in shipping to cause drop in demand for fossil fuels
Global demand for oil-based marine fuels is set to fall in the next three decades as stricter carbon emissions rules for the shipping industry kick in and alternative fuel use climbs, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
The U.N.'s International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to formally adopt energy efficiency regulations in June that aim to reduce the carbon footprint of new and existing ships by 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels.
By 2050 the IMO aims to reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 50% from 2008 levels.
Adoption of the upcoming efficiency rules would achieve the IMO's 2030 target and cause a decline in global bunker fuel demand of around 370,000 bpd by 2030 compared to the current outlook, Iain Mowat, a principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.
Even with these reductions, global consumption of marine fuels, currently estimated at just under 5 million bpd, is expected to grow to 5.9 million bpd by 2030, said Mowat.
The use of LNG in marine fuels could limit the growth in carbon emissions from the shipping sector and is expected to further displace nearly 700,000 bpd of oil bunkers by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said in a report on Friday.
"In our current outlook we have the overall size of the marine bunker market dropping to less than 5.6 MMbpd by 2050, of which oil bunkers accounts for less than 3.6 million bpd," said Mowat.
But with LNG's carbon content still high relative to low-carbon alternatives, demand growth for the super-chilled fuel as a shipping fuel will also slow after 2040 as zero-carbon fuels, such as methanol and ammonia produced from green hydrogen, become more prevalent, said Mowat.
"A major shift towards low- and zero-carbon fuels by 2050 is absolutely required to reach IMO's target to halve overall greenhouse gas emissions," he said, resulting in a further 900,000 bpd decline in oil bunker demand by 2050.
