据2月25日Investing.com报道，当前，交易员们必须明白，美国的数据将受到上周严寒天气对德克萨斯州石油生产的影响。
接下来，交易员们应该要为迎接欧佩克+的消息做好准备，该组织正试图在不惊动市场的情况下进行政策调整，以适应不断上涨的油价。交易员必须考虑到，目前较高的油价会激励生产商增加产量。
一是美国的数据报告和德州冰冻天气的影响。
尽管德克萨斯州的严寒天气危机已经结束，但交易员应该意识到，美国能源信息署(EIA)关于美国石油和汽油产量的报告看起来仍将不同寻常。由于德克萨斯州是美国最大的汽油消费地，但由于受到寒冷天气的影响，居民出行活动减少，美国汽油消费数据也将出现反常的低水平情况。
油价本周继续上涨，截至周三午盘，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)价格分别创下每桶66美元和63美元的新高。部分原因是德州严寒气候对美国石油生产的持续影响，但美国原油和汽油库存也有显著下降。
在2020年7月达到峰值后，库存减少了约1.95亿桶，基本上抹去了2020年春夏期间积累的库存。
二是欧佩克+会议的召开。
今年春夏季节，市场似乎越来越可能出现供应不足的情况。欧佩克+将于下周3月4日召开会议，将决定是否从4月1日起提高石油生产配额。
目前，欧佩克+减产约700万桶/天的原油。据路透社报道，欧佩克+产油国将在下周的会议上考虑将石油日产量增加50万桶。然而，不能确保达成共识。俄罗斯很可能会推动更高的产量增长，而沙特阿拉伯可能会告知大家要保持谨慎。
除了增加欧佩克+的整体产量，沙特阿拉伯还计划将产量提高到2月和3月决定“额外”削减100万桶石油日产量之前的水平。这个决定或将在4月份实行。
有传言称，沙特阿拉伯可能会在4月份之前增产，但沙特最近向市场保证，他们仍承诺在4月份之前控制石油进入市场。
尽管3月4日欧佩克+会议本应只设定4月的产量目标，但交易员们应该保持一种可能性，即欧佩克+将拿出一套方案，从4月到6月逐步增加产量。
欧佩克+也可能考虑将伊朗纳入其生产配额。据TankerTrackers.com报道，伊朗1月份出口了149万桶/天的原油。
三是页岩油的生产前景。
自2014年油价开始下跌以来，关于页岩油生产商需要多少价格才能实现“收支平衡”和盈利的讨论一直很多。早在2016年，大多数页岩油项目都需要油价在每桶50美元至60美元之间才能具有商业可行性。到2020年，据说油一半的页岩油井以每桶40美元的价格就获得了盈利。
现在WTI价格已经超过60美元/桶，页岩油公司会增加产量吗?根据EIA的数据，美国石油产量一直稳定在1100万桶/天左右，这比去年1300万桶/天的高点有所下降。尽管许多石油公司向市场保证，油价上涨不会吸引它们在今年增加产量，但有迹象表明，生产商将增加产量，特别是在不需要新钻井的地方。
先锋自然资源公司首席执行官表示，他相信石油需求将会保持强劲，且美国页岩油不再对欧佩克+构成威胁。该公司计划在长期内每年增加5%的产量，参考其首席执行官的言论，在当前市场条件下，短期内产量会有更高的增长也就不足为奇了。
如果页岩油生产商提高产量，那么至少有100万桶/天的增长空间，石油供应将明显增加，这将给价格带来下行压力。值得一提的是，油价在每桶60美元以上时，所有的贸易商都需要密切关注产量情况。
王佳晶 摘译自Investing.com
原文如下：
3 Key Points Oil Traders Must Recognize about Current Energy Market Dynamics
This week and next, traders must understand that U.S. numbers will be skewed by the winter freeze that hampered oil production in Texas last week.
Next week, traders should be prepared for news from OPEC+, which is trying to adjust to rising prices without scaring the market.
Beyond next week, traders must consider that the currently-higher oil prices serve as an incentive to producers to aim for additional output.
1. U.S. Data and Lingering Texas Freeze Issues
Even though the weather crisis in Texas is over, traders should be aware that the EIA reports on oil and gasoline production in the U.S. will still look unusual this week and next week. Gasoline consumption data in the U.S. will also appear abnormally low for the previous week since Texas is the largest source of gasoline consumption in the U.S. Texas residents were not travelling much last week due to the frigid weather conditions.
Oil prices continued to rise this week with both Brent and WTI hitting new highs of $66 and $63 per barrel, respectively, as of midday Wednesday. Some of the increase is due to the lingering impact of the Texas freeze on U.S. oil production, but there has also been a significant drawdown of crude oil and gasoline inventories in the U.S.
After hitting a peak in July 2020, inventories have decreased by about 195 million barrels, essentially erasing the buildup that occurred in the spring and summer of 2020.
2. March 4, OPEC+ Meeting
It increasingly looks as though the market could be undersupplied heading into the spring and summer months. OPEC+, which will be meeting next week on Mar. 4, will undoubtedly take this into consideration when deciding whether to raise oil production quotas starting Apr. 1.
Right now, OPEC+ is withholding about 7 million bpd from the market. According Reuters, OPEC+ producers will consider increasing oil production by a total of 500,000 bpd at their meeting next week. However, consensus is not assured. It is likely that Russia will push for a higher production increase, and Saudi Arabia will probably urge caution.
In addition to increasing overall OPEC+ production, Saudi Arabia plans to boost production to the level it was supposed to produce before it decided to cut an “extra” 1 million bpd of oil in February and March. This will likely happen in April.
There were some rumors that Saudi Arabia might increase production sooner than April, but the Saudis recently reassured the market that they remain committed to keeping the oil off the market until April.
Even though OPEC+’s Mar. 4 meeting is supposed to set production targets for April only, traders should keep open the possibility that OPEC+ will come up with a scheme to implement gradual increases in production from April through June as a compromise.
OPEC+ may also consider the possibility of including Iran in its production quotas soon. Though the Biden administration has not relaxed the sanctions on Iranian oil, there are indications that it might do so shortly. According to TankerTrackers.com, Iran exported 1.49 million bpd of crude oil in January, but, the country has the capacity to increase that amount if sanctions are relaxed.
3. Shale Production Prospects
Since oil prices started dropping in 2014 there has been a great deal of discussion about what price shale producers need in order to “break even” and to make a profit. Back in 2016, most shale oil projects were said to need oil prices in the $50 to mid-$60 per barrel range to be commercially viable. In 2020, half of all shale oil wells were said to be profitable at $40 per barrel.
Now that WTI is above $60 per barrel, will the companies producing in shale oil regions increase production? According to the EIA, oil production in the U.S. has been holding steady at around 11 million bpd. This is down from the 13 million bpd high attained last year. Even though many oil companies assured the market that rising oil prices would not tempt them to raise production this year, there are hints that producers will increase production, especially where new drilling isn’t required.
The CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD), commented this week that he is confident that demand for oil will be strong enough that:“U.S. shale is no longer going to be a threat to OPEC and OPEC+.”
Pioneer plans to increase its production by 5% a year in the long term, but given the CEO’s comment, it would not be surprising to see higher production growth in the short term given market conditions.
If shale producers raise production—and there is likely room for at least a 1 million bpd increase—supply will obviously increase. This would put downward pressure on prices. At $60+ per barrel prices, all traders need to keep an eye on production numbers.
