据世界石油2月23日报道，Socar Trading SA加入了市场看涨呼声的行列，并表示，今年油价将触及每桶80美元，因为需求回升，而生产商无法立即实现充足的供应。
Socar首席交易官哈亚尔·阿玛赫玛扎达(Hayal Ahmadzada)表示，2020年为应对疫情而建立的过剩石油库存，将在今年夏天之前完全被消耗。与此同时，用于管道、油井和配件的钢材价格飙升，以及生产商的高资本成本，将阻碍本已步履维艰的钢铁行业在需求恢复之际做出有意义的供应反应。
Ahmadzada在阿塞拜疆巴库接受采访时表示:“如果今年夏季或年底前油价升至每桶80美元，那么在未来18至24个月升至每桶100美元以上，我不会感到惊讶。”
总部位于日内瓦的Socar trading是阿塞拜疆国有石油公司的全球贸易部门，是全球最大的能源贸易公司之一，每天处理约100万桶原油和石油产品，使其对全球能源供需有着敏锐的洞察力。
Socar与规模更大的竞争对手托克(Trafigura)一道，宣布石油和大多数产品进入牛市。在沙特阿拉伯承诺深化产量限制后，原油价格今年已上涨逾20%，进一步推动了疫苗突破性进展引发的反弹。
Socar已经卖掉了危机期间储存的全部石油，多达1500万桶。
阿塞拜疆国民和资深交易员表示，钢铁价格飙升意味着石油服务承包商将难以建造管道、油井和其他基础设施，以按时、按预算恢复生产。即使随着各国解除封锁和其他限制措施，需求回升，供应仍无法及时做出反应。
他表示:“由于钢铁价格非常高，我们可能会看到这个行业的洗牌。”
Ahmadzada补充道，欧佩克及其包括俄罗斯在内的盟国将逐渐减少石油减产，并很快恢复全面开采原油，但这样的供应还远远不够。
他表示，即使沙特阿拉伯和德克萨斯州也在生产，人们担心12个月后将出现供应短缺。这将把价格推得非常高、非常快。
王佳晶 摘译自 世界石油
原文如下：
Socar Trading projects oil prices to hit $80 in 2021
Oil prices will hit $80 a barrel this year as demand comes roaring back and producers won’t be able to immediately respond with sufficient supply, Socar Trading SA said, joining a chorus of bullish calls on the market.
Hayal Ahmadzada, Socar’s chief trading officer, said the glut of excess oil stocks that built up in 2020 in response to the pandemic will be fully drawn down by the summer. At the same time, soaring prices for steel used in pipes, wells and fittings as well as the high cost of capital for producers will crimp a meaningful supply response by an already hobbled industry even as demand returns.
“I will not be surprised if we see $80 a barrel in summer or before year-end and above $100 a barrel in the next 18 to 24 months,” Ahmadzada said in an interview from Baku, Azerbaijan.
The global trading arm of the government-controlled State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic, Geneva-based Socar Trading is one of the world’s biggest energy trading houses, handling around 1 million barrels a day of crude and petroleum products, giving it keen insight into global energy supply and demand.
Socar joins larger rival Trafigura in calling a bull run for oil and most products. Crude has gained more than 20% this year after Saudi Arabia’s pledge to deepen production curbs turbocharged a rally triggered by Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs.
Ahmadzada said Socar had already sold all of the oil it stored during the crisis, as much as 15 million barrels.
The Azeri national and veteran trader said soaring steel prices means oil services contractors will struggle to build pipes, wells and other infrastructure needed to bring back production on time and on budget. That will slow the supply response even as demand returns as countries emerge from lockdowns and other restrictions.
“We may see a shake-out in that industry, due to very high steel prices,” he said.
Ahmadzada added he expects the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, which includes Russia, to taper production cuts and return to pumping crude at full tilt soon. Even so, it won’t be enough, he said.
Even with Saudi Arabia and Texas producing, “the fear is that in 12 months there will be a shortage,” he said. “It will drive the price very high very fast.”
