据2月23日Rappler.com报道，尽管一些美国能源公司增加了钻探量，但由于企业削减开支以减少债务和提高股东回报，预计产量仍将面临压力。欧佩克和美国石油公司认为，由于美国主要石油生产商“冻结”产能，尽管油价不断上涨，页岩油供应今年的反弹幅度有限，不过，这一决定将有助于欧佩克+产油国。
欧佩克本月下调了2021年对美国致密油(又称页岩油)的产量预期，预计产量将减少14万桶/天，至716万桶/天。
美国政府预计，3月份页岩油产量将下降约7.8万桶/天至750万桶/天，并预计年度产量也将出现下降。
值得注意的是，欧佩克的这一预测是在德克萨斯州遭遇严寒天气之前做出的。德州的严寒天气导致油井关闭，限制了地区炼油厂的需求，而德州的石油产量占美国总产量的40%。
欧佩克消息人士称，页岩油不会大幅反弹的情况，可能会让欧佩克+更容易管理市场。
但有消息人士表示，这个影响因素只是暂时的，不会是永久的。
页岩油生产商还担心，欧佩克会很快向市场供应更多的石油，以满足需求的增加。
页岩油气生产商切萨皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy Corporation)首席执行官道格?劳勒(Doug Lawler)在接受采访时表示:“在这个新时代，页岩油气生产商们需要一种不同的思维方式。在为我们的利益相关者和股东创造现金方面，我们需要更多的纪律和责任。”
对于欧佩克来说，这将是一个可喜的进展。2014-2016年油价下滑和部分由页岩油产量上升导致的全球供应过剩，对欧佩克来说是一个令人不安的经历。这导致了欧佩克+的成立，并于2017年开始减产。
包括欧佩克、俄罗斯及其盟友在内的欧佩克+正在缓慢解除去年因疫情导致价格和需求暴跌而实施的创纪录的减产措施。该组织成员将于3月4日开会审议需求。目前来看，历史不会重演。
有欧佩克代表表示:“在过去10年或更长时间里，美国页岩油气是非欧佩克国家的关键供应来源。如果会出现这种增长限制，我认为供应仍不会出现任何担忧，因为其他地方的生产商能够满足任何需求增长。”
不过，欧佩克并不急于打开石油供应的闸门。沙特阿拉伯能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子表示，石油生产国必须保持“极度谨慎”。欧佩克秘书长巴尔金多也表达了同样的观点：“在我们恢复石油市场平衡的努力中，美国页岩油生产商是一个重要的利益相关者。在这方面，我们都有共同的责任。”
值得一提的是，页岩油产量通常会对价格信号做出迅速反应，美国原油本月已触及2020年1月以来的最高水平，突破每桶60美元。
尽管最近几周页岩油公司增加了更多的钻井平台，但需求复苏不温不火，投资者要求减少债务的压力，这使它们没有急于完成新井的钻探。
经纪商PVM oil Associates斯蒂芬?布伦诺克(Stephen Brennock)表示:“在这个价格点上，任何石油生产都是有利可图的，即便是成本相对较高的美国页岩地区。然而，尽管出现了这些积极的供应增长信号，美国致密油产量远未恢复到新冠肺炎爆发前的水平。”
页岩油气生产商先锋自然资源公司(Pioneer Natural Resources Company)首席执行官斯科特?谢菲尔德(Scott Sheffield)最近表示，预计小型企业将增加产量，但美国的总产量即使在每桶60美元的情况下也将保持不变，涨幅为1%。
上周的严寒天气将对石油和天然气生产造成严重破坏，因为石油公司要应对设备冻结和电力供应不足的问题。美国最大的独立石油生产商康菲石油公司(ConocoPhillips)表示，其在德克萨斯州的大部分石油产能仍处于停产状态。
但摩根大通分析师在一份报告中表示，油价上涨可能会加速页岩板块的复苏。该银行表示:“只要运营商拥有足够的已钻但未压裂的油井库存，就应该能够轻松提高产量，同时控制资本支出。”这里的资本支出是指钻井支出。
美国能源信息署（EIA）对2022年的预测是：美国的供应将进一步增长，尽管目前可能还不足以给欧佩克+带来多大的影响。
PVM布伦诺克表示:“美国的石油产量不会很快回到疫情爆发前的水平。但这并不是说，美国页岩油产量有朝一日不会卷土重来，成为欧佩克的巨大挑战。”
王佳晶 摘译自 Rappler.com
原文如下：
OPEC, US oil firms expect subdued shale rebound even as crude prices rise
While some US energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and United States oil companies see a limited rebound in shale oil supply this year as top US producers freeze output despite rising prices, a decision that would help OPEC and its allies.
OPEC this month cut its 2021 forecast for US tight crude, another term for shale, and expects production to decline by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.16 million bpd.
The US government expects shale output in March to fall about 78,000 bpd to 7.5 million bpd and also sees an annual drop.
The OPEC forecast preceded the freezing weather in Texas, home to 40% of US output, that has shut wells and curbed demand by regional oil refineries.
The lack of a shale rebound could make it easier for OPEC and its allies to manage the market, according to OPEC sources.
"This should be the case," said one of the OPEC sources, who declined to be identified. "But I don't think this factor will be permanent."
While some US energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns. Shale producers are also wary that increased drilling would quickly be met by OPEC returning more oil to the market.
'More discipline'
"In this new era, [shale] requires a different mindset," Doug Lawler, chief executive of shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corporation, said in an interview this month. "It requires more discipline and responsibility with respect to generating cash for our stakeholders and shareholders."
That sentiment would be a welcome development for OPEC, for which a 2014-2016 price slide and global glut caused partly by rising shale output was an uncomfortable experience. This led to the creation of OPEC+, which began cutting output in 2017.
OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia, and their allies, is in the process of slowly unwinding record output curbs made last year as prices and demand collapsed due to the pandemic. Alliance members will meet on March 4 to review demand. For now, it is not seeing history repeat itself.
"US shale is the key non-OPEC supply in the past 10 years or more," said another OPEC delegate. "If such limitation of growth is now expected, I don't foresee any concerns as producers elsewhere can meet any demand growth."
Still, OPEC is no rush to open the taps. Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on February 17 oil producers must remain "extremely cautious."
OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo echoed that sentiment.
"US shale is an important stakeholder in our global efforts to restore balance to the oil market," he told Reuters. "We all have a shared responsibility in this regard."
$60 oil helps
Shale output usually responds rapidly to price signals and US crude has this month hit its highest level since January 2020, topping $60 a barrel.
While shale companies have added more rigs in recent weeks, a tepid demand recovery and investor pressure to reduce debt has kept them from rushing to complete new wells.
"At this price point, any oil production is profitable, especially the relatively high-cost US shale patch," said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM Oil Associates.
"Yet despite these positive growth signals, US tight oil production is far from recovering its pre-COVID mojo."
The chief executive of shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources Company, Scott Sheffield, recently said he expects small companies to increase output but in the aggregate US output will remain flat to 1% higher even at $60 per barrel.
Production freeze
Last week's severe cold will wreak havoc on oil and gas production as companies deal with frozen equipment and a lack of power to run operations. The largest US independent producer, ConocoPhillips, said on Thursday, February 18, the majority of its Texas production remained offline.
But JPMorgan analysts said in a February 18 report that rising oil prices might prompt a quicker shale revival.
"As long as operators have sufficient drilled but unfracked well inventory to complete, they should be able to easily grow production while keeping capex in check," the bank said, using a term for drilling spending.
Forecasts for 2022 such as from the US Energy Information Administration are for more US supply growth, although perhaps not enough to cause problems for OPEC+ for now.
"US oil output will not go back to pre-COVID levels any time soon," said PVM's Brennock. "But that is not to say that US shale will not one day return as a thorn in OPEC's side."
