据俄罗斯油气网2月18日华盛顿报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）估计，由于拜登的新能源政策，美国阿拉斯加州剩余可采石油资源的72%可能会留在地下，但对产量的影响要到2030年之后才能感受到。
阿拉斯加州石油开采的日子已经被能源行业认为时日无多，但拜登新政府推动的能源转型可能会加速这一进程。
Rystad估计，阿拉斯加州剩余的可采石油储量为233亿桶石油和凝析油。
如果暂时禁止北极国家野生动物保护区(ANWR)的石油活动，以及禁止在全国范围内的联邦土地和水域进行新的租赁销售，那么大约168亿桶的石油资源可能永远不会出现在阳光下。
根据Rystad的估计，永久禁止新租约将从ANWR目前未授出或未开放探区中移除13.5亿桶可被开发的石油资源。
终止阿拉斯加州新的海上租约可能会导致该州损失多达100亿桶石油资源。
由于阿拉斯加州国家石油储备区至今尚未授出陆上探区，该州还可能失去大约45亿桶石油资源。
Rystad指出，石油和天然气行业2019年为阿拉斯加州提供了80%的收入，以这种规模减少石油产量显然会对该州未来财政产生巨大影响。
李峻 编译自 俄罗斯油气网
原文如下：
Rystad Energy: Most of Alaska’s remaining oil at risk
Rystad estimates that about 72 % of the state’s remaining recoverable oil resources could stay in the ground, although the effect on production will be felt only after 2030.Alaska’s oil days were already considered numbered by the energy industry, but the new administration’s push for energy transition could hasten the process.
Rystad estimates Alaska’s remaining recoverable oil reserves to be 23.3 billion barrels of oil and condensates.
about 16.8 billion barrels of this may never see the light of day if the temporary bans on oil activity in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and on new lease sales on state-wide federal lands and waters are here to stay.
It’s safe to say that the previous administration’s rushed ANWR lease sale did not garner much interest, but a halt to oil & gas activities would mean that any potential discoveries are taken off the map.
based on Rystad’s estimates, a permanent ban on new leases would remove 1.35 billion barrels of oil resources that could be developed from the currently unawarded or open acreage in ANWR.
An end to new offshore leases in Alaska could result in the state losing out on up to 10 billion barrels of oil.
The state could also miss out on roughly 4.5 billion barrels of oil resources through unawarded onshore acreage in the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska.
Rystad pointed out that the oil & gas industry provided about 80% of Alaska’s state revenues in 2019 and removing oil volumes on this scale would clearly have an immense impact on the state’s finances.
