据油价网2月19日消息称，雷斯塔能源本周在一份分析报告称，全球新冠疫情对需求的冲击和能源转型战略将使大型石油公司的原油和天然气产量在2028年或将更早达到峰值，其产量将低于此前预期。
埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、英国石油、壳牌和道达尔这五家综合超级巨头的原油和天然气总产量将在2028年达到每天1800万桶石油当量的峰值，而疫情之前的预测预计，它们的总产量将持续上升，至2030年将超过2000万桶/天。
雷斯塔能源的数据显示，与2019年相比，去年大型石油公司的油气总产量下降了近5%，即90万桶/天。分析人士称，2020年，由于油价和石油需求的崩溃，五大石油巨头也总共遭受了创纪录的760亿美元的损失。
过去一年，减排目标和战略改变了超级石油巨头的长期生产前景。
雷斯塔能源目前预计，2025年这些巨头的净产量约为1750万桶/天，2028年峰值约为1800万桶/天。就在新冠之前，雷斯塔能源曾预计2025年的产量为1900万桶/天，2028年将达到2000万桶/天。
一些承诺在2050年前成为净零排放企业的欧洲大型石油公司已经表示，它们的石油产量将在未来几年逐渐下降。
例如，英国石油公司表示，它将把在低碳能源方面的投资增加10倍，达到每年50亿美元，并在2030年前将石油和天然气产量减少40%。本月早些时候，壳牌表示，其石油产量将在2019年见顶，并将在未来30年持续下降。
雷斯塔能源的上游分析师RahulChodhary表示：“未来10年，五大石油巨头成功的关键将是加强其在更具弹性的地区的业务，重组和调整规模以适应市场需求，并偿还其高负债水平。”
朱佳妮 摘译自 钻井地带
原文如下：
Big Oil To See Production Peak In 2028
The pandemic shock to demand and the energy transition strategies are set to bring peak crude and natural gas production for Big Oil in 2028, at a lower volume and earlier than previously expected, Rystad Energy said in an analysis this week.
The five integrated supermajors – ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Total – will see their combined crude oil and natural gas production peak at 18 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2028, compared to projections from before COVID-19 that had expected the combined production to continue rising until 2030 at over 20 million bpd.
Last year, Big Oil’s combined oil and gas production declined by close to 5 percent, or by 900,000 boepd, compared to 2019, according to Rystad Energy. In 2020, the five supermajors also incurred a record combined $76 billion loss due to the crash in oil prices and oil demand, the analysts said.
Over the past year, emission reduction targets and strategies have altered the long-term outlook for the supermajors’ production.
Rystad Energy now sees the majors’ net production at around 17.5 million boepd in 2025 and peaking at around 18 million boepd in 2028. Just before the pandemic, Rystad Energy had expected 2025 production to be at 19 million boepd and 20 million boepd in 2028.
Some of the European supermajors that have committed to becoming net-zero emission businesses by 2050 have already said that their oil production would gradually drop over the years.
BP, for example, said it would boost its investment in low-carbon energy ten times to US$5 billion a year and reduce oil and gas production by 40 percent by 2030. Earlier this month, Shell said its oil production peaked in 2019 and is set for a continual decline over the next three decades.
“The key to success for the five majors over the next decade will be to strengthen their business in more resilient regions, restructure and resize to match the market needs, and pay back their high debt levels,” said Rahul Choudhary, upstream analyst at Rystad Energy.
