据今日油价2月21日报道，在被交易员们忽视了数月之后，石油再次成为一种热门大宗商品，布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶65美元以上，西德克萨斯中质油价格一年来首次突破每桶60美元。
油价上涨给欧佩克+继续减产的决心蒙上了一层阴影，在美国因北极寒潮席卷全国而损失约40%的石油产量之前，石油就一直在稳步复苏。德州的冰冻灾害无疑助推了油价，但随着交易员们获利回吐，涨势正在减缓，当前，布伦特原油价格跌至每桶63美元以下，西德克萨斯中质原油价格跌至每桶60美元以下。然而，巨大的上行潜力仍然存在，这可能加剧欧佩克+成员国之间的内部紧张关系。
首先，美国对石油的需求正在复苏。彭博社报道，复苏始于去年12月开始的疫苗接种运动，自那以后，炼油厂一直在增加燃料产量。过去几周，汽油库存有所增加，产量也有所增加。
但当前的情况是，在这个全球最大石油消费国的需求复苏之际，其产量却停滞不前。根据EIA的数据，美国2022年的产量也将维持在1200万桶/天以下。EIA在其最新的短期能源展望中表示，这种不平衡将使美国在今明两年成为净出口国。但对欧佩克+来说，更重要的是，这将进一步推高油价，诱使原本就不怎么遵守减产协议的成员国变得更加不受约束。
这个庞大的石油卡特尔内部已经出现了分歧。上一次欧佩克+做出产量决定时，就不得不做出妥协，考虑到俄罗斯等国的利益，这些国家坚持要削减一些最大幅度的产量。现在，沙特阿拉伯已经表示，将暂停其自愿单方面的每日额外100万桶的减产，沙特也将不惜一切代价提高油价。
这些信号表明欧佩克事实上的领导人和最大产油国正对油价变得更加乐观。然而，根据华尔街日报的报道，如果价格形势发生变化，减产决定可能还会被逆转。具有讽刺意味的是，一旦德州的严寒热潮消退，沙特阿拉伯每日新增100万桶石油供应的消息很可能对油价产生负面影响。不过，尽管沙特阿拉伯继续准备采取一切必要措施，俄罗斯却认为石油市场已经重新平衡。
诺瓦克表示：“过去几个月，市场波动不大，这意味着市场是平衡的，我们今天看到的价格与市场形势一致。虽然去年春季的石油需求比往年同期的正常水平低20- 25%，但到2020年底，下降幅度已缩小至8% - 9%。
说到伊拉克，尽管该国试图进一步削减原油产量，以弥补去年的产量过剩，但该国报告称，2月份头两周的石油出口有所增加。据彭博社报道，整个月，伊拉克可能会超过自己设定的360万桶/天的上限，甚至超过欧佩克+385万桶/天的上限。还有的成员国已经在提高产量，并计划重返国际石油舞台。
欧佩克+内部减产和产量增长之间的不和谐声音只会随着最新的石油乐观消息而加深，且沙特石油部长已发出警告，称不要自满。
萨勒曼王子表示:“我必须再次警告大家不要自满，市场形势不确定性非常高，我们必须非常谨慎，2020年危机留下的伤疤应该告诉我们要谨慎。”
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Can OPEC+ Maintain Order As Oil Prices Rise?
After months of neglect from traders, oil became a hot commodity again this month as Brent surged over $65 a barrel and WTI topped $60 for the first time in a year. The rally cast a shadow over OPEC+’s resolve to keep cutting as much production as they are cutting now. Oil had been recovering steadily even before the United States lost some 40 percent of its oil production because of the Arctic cold wave that swept across the country. The Texas deep freeze certainly helped it, but its effect is already dwindling as traders take profits: Brent was down to less than $63 at the time of writing, and WTI had slipped below $60 a barrel. Yet a substantial upside potential remains that could increase internal tensions between OPEC+ members.
For one thing, U.S. demand for oil is recovering. The recovery, Bloomberg reports, started with the vaccination drive that began in December, and since then, refiners have been ramping up fuel production. The last couple of weeks have seen gasoline stocks rise but so has production.
While demand in the world’s top consumer of oil recovers, production is stalling. According to the EIA, U.S. output will remain below 12 million bpd next year as well. This imbalance will turn the United States into a net exporter this year and next, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. But more importantly for OPEC+, this would push oil prices higher still, tempting barely compliant members to become even less compliant.
There is already discord within the extended oil cartel. The last time OPEC+ made a decision on production, it had to make a compromise decision to take into account the interests of those—like Russia—that insisted on some rollback of the deepest production cuts. And now, Saudi Arabia has said it would suspend its voluntary unilateral additional cuts that amounted to 1 million bpd and that Riyadh effected in its whatever-it-takes quest for higher prices.
That’s the clearest signal yet that OPEC’s de facto leader and biggest producer is becoming more optimistic about prices. Per the Wall Street Journal report that broke the news, however, the decision may yet be reversed if the price situation changes. Ironically, the very news that Saudi Arabia will add another million barrels daily to global supply is likely to have a negative effect on prices once the Texas deep freeze frenzy fizzles out.
But while Saudi Arabia continues to be ready to do whatever it takes, Russia sees the oil market as already rebalanced. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said as much last week as quoted by Russian media.
“We’ve seen low volatility in the past few months. This means the market is balanced and the prices we are seeing today are in line with the market situation,” Novak told TV channel Rossiya 1. Novak added that while last spring oil demand was 20-25 percent lower than its normal level at this time of year, by the end of 2020, the decline had shrunk to 8-9 percent. And Russia remains one of the barely compliant nations in the OPEC+ agreement. In fact, like Iraq, Russia has been producing over its quota.
Speaking of Iraq, the country reported an increase in oil exports for the first two weeks of February despite its attempt to reduce production of crude oil further to compensate for its overproduction last year. For the full month, according to Bloomberg, Iraq may exceed its self-imposed cap of 3.6 million bpd and even its OPEC+ cap of 3.85 million bpd.
And then there is Iran, which is already boosting production as it is exempt from the OPEC+ cuts and has big plans for its return on the international oil stage after U.S. sanctions are lifted. This has yet to happen, after Washington tied the removal of sanctions on Iran’s suspension of uranium enrichment activities.
In what could be seen as a gesture of goodwill, the U.S. earlier this month said it had rescinded a declaration by the Trump administration that all UN sanctions against Iran had snapped back. The declaration was void because it used provisions from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that the U.S. had left before making the declaration. In any case, a certain menmber has reasons for optimism that it will be sanction-free soon and ready to pump more.
The discord between production cut hawks and production growth doves within OPEC+ will only deepen with the latest bullish news on oil. It already led Saudi Arabia’s oil minister to warn against complacency.
“I must warn once again against complacency,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said earlier this week as quoted by Bloomberg. “The uncertainty is very high and we have to be extremely cautious. The scars from the events last year should teach us caution.”
Uncertainty indeed remains high, and then there is the threat of U.S. producers giving in to the temptation of WTI at over $60. For now, they have been resisting it, in all fairness, perhaps displaying the same caution bin Salman talked about this week. But at some point, the temptation may become irresistible, and what for OPEC is a nightmare scenario may happen again: U.S. producers ramping up output thanks to OPEC+ efforts to keep prices high enough to make it economical.
For now, there is no sign that OPEC+ will depart from its current policy of sticking with 7.2 million bpd in cuts until April. But, again, as Saudi Arabia’s top oilman said, “Those who are trying to predict the next move of OPEC+, to those I say, don’t try to predict the unpredictable.”
