据2月21日The Motley Fool报道，今年以来，石油价格一路飙升，涨幅超过25%，最近已突破每桶60美元。今年的飙升已将原油价格推升至疫情爆发前的水平之上。与此同时，油价的上涨可能不会结束，因为在需求开始复苏之际，欧佩克和其他产油国正严格控制供应。
在这样的背景下，如果油价持续上涨，合同钻井公司Helmerich & Payne、油气生产商德文能源和设备制造商卡特彼勒这三家公司的股票价格具有最大的上行潜力。
鲁本·格雷格·布鲁尔(Helmerich & Payne):油价下跌时，能源服务公司会受到冲击，因为他们的客户会减少支出。但当价格开始上涨时，趋势就会转向另一个方向。这就是为什么如果油价飙升，Helmerich & Payne应该会从中受益。
一方面，该公司拥有非常强劲的资产负债表，债务权益比仅为15%，资金流动性强，约为13亿美元。换句话说，有足够的资金来应付今天的困难时期，也有足够的现金来抓住下一次经济好转时的机会。这意味着，一旦需求再次回升，就可以重新转向增长。
另一方面，该公司拥有一支庞大的高端钻机队伍。简单地说，最好的钻井平台将首先恢复工作。具体来说，其234台高端钻机中目前只有80台是外包的，因此还有很大的上行潜力。同样值得注意的是，Helmerich & Payne的主要市场是美国的水力压裂领域，与其他钻探方法相比，水力压裂可以相对较快地提高产量。
因此，在需求回升之前，Helmerich & Payne有足够的实力生存下去，这些钻井平台最有可能首先重新投入使用，并在一个应该能够迅速增长的市场上运营。这听起来像是一个成功的组合。
德文能源公司Matt DiLallo:当油价上涨时，石油生产商为股东创造价值的记录很糟糕。他们通常会把高油价带来的现金流浪费在钻探新油井或回购股票上，结果下次石油市场崩盘时，这些资金就会化为灰烬。
然而，今年的石油市场复苏可能会有所不同。美国石油生产商已经承诺，随着油价上涨，他们不会增加钻探计划。最重要的是，石油公司开始在向股东返还现金的方式上有所创新。德文能源公司率先推出了行业领先的可变红利计划，该公司计划在支付可持续基本股息和维护资本计划后，每个季度支付50%的超额现金。
德文的第一个可变股利是每股0.19美元(总计1.28亿美元)，是其基本季度股利0.11美元(4200万美元)的两倍多。由于德文的自由现金流随着油价上涨而上升，这笔支付可能只是可变红利潜力的一小部分。例如，在每桶50美元的油价下，德文今年可以产生超过10亿美元的自由现金流。与此同时，以目前每桶超过60美元的油价计算，到2021年，该公司的自由现金流将接近17.5亿美元。由于其中多达一半的资金将通过可变股息计划返还给股东，德文今年可能会在油价上涨的情况下获得一笔成功的投资。
尼哈·查玛利亚:当同事们谨慎地挑选出那些应该是油价上涨的主要受益者的石油和天然气股票时，我推荐一家不属于油气行业但却持有大量股份的公司——卡特彼勒公司。
尽管卡特彼勒更出名的是其建筑和采矿设备，但鉴于该公司在该行业的风险敞口越来越大，油价对该公司的影响应该比以往任何时候都更大。2020年，能源和交通运输业(E&T)取代建筑业，成为卡特彼勒最大的业务部门，占其总收入的近42%。不过，受石油和天然气市场低迷的拖累，今年该行业的销售额下降了21%。近年来，石油和天然气一直是E&T最大的终端市场。
卡特彼勒认为自己在能源市场上有价值，这一点在其最近一次收购中得到了进一步证明——以约3.75亿美元的价格收购了Weir Group的石油和天然气部门。油价反弹应有助于卡特彼勒从收购中释放出更大的价值，尽管油价上涨鼓励能源企业重启资本支出计划，并刺激对卡特彼勒擅长的往复式发动机等设备的需求。
因此，油价飙升可能是E&T的一剂强心针，并对卡特彼勒未来销售和利润的复苏发挥重要作用。
王佳晶 摘译自 The Motley Fool
原文如下：
Oil Is Surging: These 3 Stocks Would Be Big Winners in an Oil Boom
Oil prices have been on fire this year, surging by more than 25% and recently topping $60 a barrel. This year's surge has pushed crude oil pricing back above its pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, oil's run might not be done since OPEC and other producers are keeping a tight lid on supplies at a time when demand is starting to recover.
Given this backdrop, we asked some of our energy contributors which oil stocks they believe are best positioned to benefit if oil prices continue booming. They see some of the sector's best upside potential in contract driller Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), oil and gas producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), and equipment maker Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Here's why.
The right tools
Reuben Gregg Brewer (Helmerich & Payne): Energy services get roughed up when oil falls because their customers pull back on spending. But when prices start heading higher the trend goes the other direction. Which is why Helmerich & Payne should benefit if oil prices take off (even more than they have already). The company has a couple of important things going for it.
First, it has a really strong balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 15%, and ample liquidity, roughly $1.3 billion. In other words, it has the financial strength to muddle through today's hard times and also the cash to take advantage of the next upturn. That means it can pivot back to growth as soon as demand picks up again.
Which brings up point No. 2: It has a large fleet of high-end drilling rigs. Simply put, the best rigs will get put back to work first. To put a number on that, only 80 of its 234 high-end rigs are currently contracted out, leaving a lot of upside potential. It is worth noting, too, that Helmerich & Payne's primary market is the U.S. fracking sector, which can ramp up production relatively quickly compared to other drilling methods.
So, Helmerich & Payne has the strength to survive until demand picks up, the rigs that will most likely get put back to work first, and operates in a market that should be able to ramp up quickly. That sounds like a winning combination.
A gusher of dividends at higher crude prices
Matt DiLallo (Devon Energy): Oil producers have a lousy track record of creating value for shareholders when oil prices are booming. They've usually wasted the cash flow generated at higher oil prices on drilling new wells or buying back their stock, only to have the next oil market bust incinerate that capital.
However, this year's oil market recovery might be different. U.S. producers have promised not to ramp up their drilling programs as oil prices rise. On top of that, oil companies are starting to get creative in how they return cash to their shareholders. Devon Energy is leading that charge by launching an industry-first variable dividend program. The oil producer aims to pay out up to 50% of its excess cash each quarter after funding its sustainable base dividend and maintenance capital program.
Devon's first variable dividend was a gusher at $0.19 per share ($128 million in total), more than double its base quarterly payout of $0.11 per share ($42 million). That payment is likely only a small taste of the variable dividend's potential since Devon's free cash flow rises with oil prices. For example, at $50 oil, Devon could produce more than $1 billion in free cash flow this year. Meanwhile, at the current oil price of more than $60 a barrel, Devon's free cash flow would approach $1.75 billion in 2021. With as much as half of those funds going back to shareholders via its variable dividend program, Devon could be a winning investment this year on booming oil prices.
Neha Chamaria (Caterpillar): While my colleagues have prudently picked out oil and gas stocks that should be major beneficiaries from any rise in the price of oil, I'll deviate and recommend a company that doesn't quite belong to the sector but has significant stake in it nonetheless: Caterpillar.
Although Caterpillar is better known for its construction and mining equipment, oil price should matter to the company more than ever now given its increasing exposure to the sector. To put a number to that, consider that energy and transportation (E&T) toppled construction industries to emerge as Caterpillar's largest segment in 2020, accounting for nearly 42% of its total revenue. Sales from the segment, though, declined 21% in the year, dragged largely by a depressed oil and gas market. Oil and gas has been the largest end market for E&T in recent years.
That Caterpillar sees value in the energy markets is further evidenced by its latest acquisition -- that of the oil and gas division from The Weir Group for roughly $375 million. Oil's rebound should help Caterpillar unlock greater value from the acquisition even as higher prices encourage energy companies to revive their capital spending plans and spur demand for equipment like the reciprocating engines Caterpillar specializes in.
Surging oil, therefore, could be a shot in the arm for E&T and play an important role in the revival of Caterpillar's sales and profits going forward.
