据世界石油2月18日消息称，纵观历史，美国进口的石油(包括原油、精炼石油产品和其他液体)一直超过出口。这种状况在2020年发生了变化。美国能源信息署（EIA）于2021年2月发布的《短期能源展望》（STEO）估计，2020年是美国石油出口首次超过进口的一年。然而，主要由于国内原油产量的下降和相应的原油进口的增加，EIA预计美国将在2021年和2022年重新成为石油净进口国。
EIA预计，不断增加的原油进口将推动2021年和2022年石油净进口的增长，并足以抵消成品油净贸易量的变化。EIA预测，原油净进口量将从2020年的平均水平270万桶/天增加到2021年的370万桶/天和2022年的440万桶/天。
与原油贸易相比，2020年精炼石油产品净出口变化不大。按年平均计算，美国石油产品净出口量——馏分燃料油、烃气液和汽油等——在2019年平均为320万桶/天，在2020年为340万桶/天。EIA预测，随着全球对石油产品的需求从2020年上半年的低点继续增长，2021年石油产品净出口量平均将达到350万桶/天，2022年将达到390万桶/天。
EIA预计，美国将在2021年至2022年进口更多原油，以填补炼油厂原油投入和国内原油产量之间日益扩大的差距。2020年，美国原油产量预计下降90万桶/天(8%)，至1130万桶/天，主要原因是由于低油价导致的油井减少和钻井活动的减少。
EIA预计，从2020年第四季度开始的原油价格上涨将有助于今年晚些时候美国原油产量的增加。EIA预测，到2021年底，美国原油月产量将达到1130万桶/天，到2022年底将达到1190万桶/天。这些数值较2020年11月的最新月度平均值1110万桶/天有所增加(根据EIA的月度石油供应数据)，但仍低于2019年11月的前峰值1290万桶/天。
曹海斌 摘译自 世界石油
原文如下：
U.S. will import 62% more crude by 2022 due to domestic production declines, says EIA
Throughout much of its history, the United States has imported more petroleum (which includes crude oil, refined petroleum products, and other liquids) than it has exported. That status changed in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) estimates that 2020 marked the first year that the United States exported more petroleum than it imported on an annual basis. However, largely because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022.
EIA expects that increasing crude oil imports will drive the growth in net petroleum imports in 2021 and 2022 and more than offset changes in refined product net trade. EIA forecasts that net imports of crude oil will increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022.
Compared with crude oil trade, net exports of refined petroleum products did not change as much during 2020. On an annual average basis, U.S. net petroleum product exports—distillate fuel oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and motor gasoline, among others—averaged 3.2 million b/d in 2019 and 3.4 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that net petroleum product exports will average 3.5 million b/d in 2021 and 3.9 million b/d in 2022 as global demand for petroleum products continues to increase from its recent low point in the first half of 2020.
EIA expects that the United States will import more crude oil to fill the widening gap between refinery inputs of crude oil and domestic crude oil production in 2021 and 2022. U.S. crude oil production declined by an estimated 0.9 million b/d (8%) to 11.3 million b/d in 2020 because of well curtailment and a drop in drilling activity related to low crude oil prices.
EIA expects the rising price of crude oil, which started in the fourth quarter of 2020, will contribute to more U.S. crude oil production later this year. EIA forecasts monthly domestic crude oil production will reach 11.3 million b/d by the end of 2021 and 11.9 million b/d by the end of 2022. These values are increases from the most recent monthly average of 11.1 million b/d in November 2020 (based on data in EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly) but still lower than the previous peak of 12.9 million b/d in November 2019.
