据2月18日Trade Arabia报道，2020年，新冠肺炎疫情导致石油需求减少900万至1000万桶/天，不过，预计今年石油需求将反弹500万至600万桶/天。有关报告指出，疫情还导致一些展望报告将长期年度经济增长下调了至多0.8个百分点。
国际能源署(IEA)、国际能源论坛(IEF)和欧佩克主办了第11届IEA-IEF-Opec能源展望研讨会，探讨新冠肺炎疫情对全球能源市场的影响以及全球能源安全和市场稳定的前景。
研讨会由国际能源论坛主办，回顾IEA和欧佩克的短期、中期和长期展望，并在最新发布的国际能源论坛- RFF展望比较报告中进行了分析。这份报告由国际能源论坛和未来资源(RFF)共同撰写，发布在国际能源论坛网站上，强调了在经历了历史上最大的需求冲击后，能源前景的重新定位。
国际能源论坛秘书长约瑟夫·麦克莫尼格尔(Joseph McMonigle) 表示：“疫情对能源需求的影响在能源市场历史上是空前的，研讨会探讨了政府政策和行业应对措施对于维护能源市场长期稳定的重要意义。”
这次专题讨论会是这三个组织于2010年3月在墨西哥坎昆举行的第12届国际能源论坛上制定的更广泛的联合工作方案的一部分。研讨会以现场直播的形势向公众开放。
IEA执行主任法蒂赫·比罗尔表示:“对话与合作在引导全球能源体系走向一个可持续发展的未来方面，变得越来越重要。丰富、价格合理、清洁达能源将被用来助力经济增长和人类发展。”
欧佩克秘书长穆罕默德·巴尔金多在研讨会开幕词中肯定了过去一年中，欧佩克和非欧佩克国家参与《合作宣言》（DoC）以帮助稳定石油市场所作的重要贡献，IEA和IEF支持市场再平衡所做的努力，以及20国集团密切对话的重要性。他还强调，有必要继续对石油行业进行投资，以确保供应稳定，并以保持一种包容性的态度来应对气候变化、能源转型和能源获取的挑战。他表示，这些投资对生产者和消费者来说都至关重要。
这位欧佩克秘书长在研讨会上表示:“在这个瞬息万变的世界，我们寻求为实现更稳定、更具有可预测性和更高透明度的能源市场作贡献。我们将不断提高我们的能力，以建设一个更美好的未来，一个可持续发展的，符合生产者和消费者利益的未来。”
世界天然气出口国论坛秘书长森特尤林表示:“现在取消油气行业的投资还为时过早，因为在可预见的未来，它们仍将是全球能源结构中的重要组成部分。”
IEF-RFF展望比较报告的其他主要发现包括:
*预计到2040年，即使各国实现《巴黎协定》气候目标，化石燃料将在一次能源结构中占据主导地位。
*净零排放战略或将无法实现。
*尽管需求可能会从发达国家转移到发展中国家，但长期来看，全球石油需求预计将保持稳定。
*市场对未来油气行业的重要性判断存在不同的看法，碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）等新技术可能发挥更大的作用。
*核电、水电、风能和太阳能将占电力行业增长的很大一部分，而煤炭发电份额预计将下降，天然气作为过渡燃料面临不确定的未来。
* 人们日益远大的气候目标将对占全球排放量四分之三的能源行业产生重大影响。
王佳晶 摘译自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Oil demand to bounce back this year, says report
The Covid pandemic led to oil demand contracting by 9-10 million barrels per day in 2020, but it is expected to rebound by 5-6 million barrels per day this year, a major symposium heard.
The pandemic has also led to a downward revision in long-term annual economic growth by as much as 0.8 percentage points in some outlooks, a high-level report noted.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Energy Forum (IEF) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) hosted the 11th IEA-IEF-Opec Symposium on Energy Outlooks to examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global energy markets and the outlook for global energy security and market stability.
Hosted by the IEF, the symposium reviewed the IEA’s and Opec’s short-, medium- and longterm outlooks, which are analysed in the newly released IEF-RFF Outlooks Comparison Report. Produced by the IEF and Resources For the Future (RFF), the report posted on the IEF website highlights a reset in energy outlooks after the biggest demand shock in history last year.
“The pandemic’s impact on energy demand is unparalleled in the history of energy markets,” says IEF Secretary General Joseph McMonigle. “The symposium explored what government policies and industry responses are necessary to safeguard the long-term stability of energy markets.”
The Symposium is part of a wider joint programme of work by the three organisations originating from the 12th International Energy Forum held in Cancún, Mexico in March 2010. The Symposium was live-streamed and open to the public.
Dr Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the IEA, said: “Dialogue and cooperation will be increasingly vital to steer the global energy system towards a future that is fit for tomorrow’s generations, where energy is abundant, affordable, clean and is used to underpin growth and development.”
In his opening remarks to the Symposium, Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Opec Secretary General, recognised the vital contributions of the Opec and non-Opec countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in helping to stabilise the oil market over the past year, and the importance of close dialogue with the G20, the IEA and IEF in supporting market rebalancing efforts. He also emphasised the need for continued investment in the oil industry to ensure stability of supply and to help maintain an inclusive approach to addressing climate change, the energy transition and energy access challenges. "These investments are essential for both producers and consumers," he said.
"In our fast-changing and unpredictable world, we seek to contribute to greater stability, more predictability and enhanced transparency," the Opec Secretary General told the Symposium. "We constantly seek to improve our capacity to do so, for we believe this will help us build a better future, one which serves the interests of generations of producers and consumers."
GECF Secretary General Sentyurin, said:“It is too early to write off hydrocarbons as they will remain the dominating source in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future.”
Other key findings in the IEF-RFF Outlooks Comparison Report include:
* Fossil fuels are expected to dominate the primary energy mix thru 2040, even in scenarios where countries meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.
* The gap between current pathway scenarios and alternative scenarios is large and growing annually, signalling that the zero-carbon emissions scenario may not be achieved.
* Demand for oil is expected to be stable over the long term globally, although demand will likely shift from developed to developing countries.
* Differing outlooks on the expected importance of hydrocarbons suggest that new technologies such as carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) could have a bigger role to play.
* Nuclear, hydro, wind and solar will account for a majority of growth in the electricity sector, while coal is expected to decline and natural gas faces an uncertain future as a transition fuel.
* Growing climate ambitions in the lead up to COP26 will have significant implications for the energy sector, which accounts for three-quarters of global emissions.
