据能源世界网2月15日伦敦报道，油价已经达到了一个关键的临界点，欧佩克+必须决定是否增加产量，否则市场份额将再次被美国页岩油生产商抢走。
即月布伦特原油期货价格已从去年11月宣布首次成功的疫苗时的不到40美元和当疫情在4月肆虐时的不到20美元攀升至每桶60美元以上。
在调整通货膨胀后，布伦特价格现在是自1990年初以来所有月的第58百分位数，这与非欧佩克生产国的产量缓慢但稳定的增长是一致的。
过去十年，每当布伦特原油均价超过每桶57美元时，美国石油生产商就会抓住全球石油消费的所有增长，以牺牲欧佩克及其盟国的利益为代价，增加其市场份额。
根据油田服务公司贝克休斯(baker hughes)的数据显示，针对早些时候油价上涨，美国生产商已经将石油钻机的数量从8月份的172台低点增加到近300台。
最近的价格上涨可能会确保在用钻机的数量至少在6月底之前有所增加，如果按目前的趋势继续下去，届时数量可能超过425台甚至450台。
考虑到钻机数量不断上升，预计到2021年年底，除墨西哥湾以外的美国48个州的石油产量将从目前的水平每天增加34万桶。
根据能源信息署(EIA)2月9日的“短期能源展望”，到2022年年底，日产量将再增加64万桶。
如果价格进一步上涨，那么2021年下半年和2022年，钻探和产量都可能更快地加速。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下:
Oil prices hit critical threshold for OPEC+
Oil prices have reached a critical threshold where OPEC+ must decide whether to increase production, or risk losing market share again to U.S. shale producers.
Front-month Brent futures prices have climbed to more than $60 per barrel, up from less than $40 when the first successful vaccines were announced in November, and less than $20 when the pandemic was raging in April.
After adjusting for inflation, Brent prices are now in the 58th percentile for all months since the start of 1990, which is consistent with slow but steady increases in output by non-OPEC producers.
In the last decade, whenever Brent prices averaged more than about $57 per barrel, U.S. producers captured all the growth in global oil consumption, increasing their market share at the expense of OPEC and its allies.
Responding to the earlier rise in prices, U.S. producers have already increased the number of rigs drilling for oil to nearly 300, up from a low of just 172 in August, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.
More recent price increases are likely to ensure the number of active rigs increases at least until the end of June, when the count is likely to exceed 425 or even 450, if the current trend continues.
Reflecting the rising rig count, U.S. production from the Lower 48 states excluding the Gulf of Mexico is already forecast to rise from current levels by 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) by the end of 2021.
Further production gains of 640,000 bpd are expected by the end of 2022, according to the Energy Information Administration ("Short-term energy outlook", EIA, Feb. 9).
If prices rise further, both drilling and production are likely to accelerate even faster in the second half of 2021 and 2022.
