据油气新闻2月8日消息称，能源世界正在发生变化，而且变化的速度比大多数专家一年前预测的还要快。即使在大流行期间，可再生能源技术的应用也在加速发展，碳捕集与封存（CCS）、电池存储和氢气这三个竞争者已开始进行竞争，以减少排放，并帮助越来越多正在制定净零目标的国家、行业和公司。
为了解决能源转型并确定最新趋势，雷斯塔能源自豪地出版了每月的《能源转型报告》，该报告展示并分析了关键转型变量、社会和技术的最新发展。
我们的评估表明，CCS作为一项技术，理论上有潜力解决全球62%(250亿吨)的二氧化碳排放，但是，考虑到传统CCS的捕获率高达90%左右，像直接空气捕捉(DAC)和生物能源CCS (BECCS)这样的净负技术将是需要的。然而，CCS不太可能达到这一水平。
目前的CCS项目组合每年捕获约40兆吨碳。如果我们将即将到来的项目管道计算在内，到2026年底，这个数字将增加到每年110兆吨。
这些数字与IEA的可持续发展设想相比较，2050年将捕获56亿吨天然气，比目前的管道储量增加50倍。要占领整个潜在市场，需要在IEA SDS方案的基础上再增加4倍。
雷斯塔能源公司高级副总裁兼全球能源系统主管Marius Foss说“我们最终将在很大程度上依赖于碳价格的发展，目前的碳价格远远低于支持大多数CCS应用所需的水平欧洲一些国家和美国的一些州可能是例外，它们利用排放交易系统(ETS)、碳排放税、碳排放信用或更直接的补贴计划。”
就温室气体排放总量而言，CCS理论上可以解决全球48%的温室气体排放，这是对我们上次发布的一般能源转型报告的向上修订，该报告增加了一些工业温室气体排放。
曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻
原文如下：
CCS could tap 62% of world’s CO2 emissions: Rystad Energy
The energy world is changing, and quicker than most experts predicted only a year ago. The adaptation of renewable energy technologies is accelerating, even during the pandemic, and three contenders – carbon capture and storage (CCS), battery storage and hydrogen – have begun a competitive race to reduce emissions and assist the increasing number of countries, industries and companies that are setting net zero targets.
To address the energy transition and identify the latest trends, Rystad Energy has proudly initiated a monthly Energy Transition Report, which showcases and analyzes the latest developments across key transition variables, societies and technologies.
Our assessment shows that CCS as a technology has the theoretical potential to address 62% (25 gigatonnes, GT) of global CO2 emissions, but net-negative technologies such as Direct Air Capture (DAC) and Bio Energy CCS (BECCS) will be needed given that traditional CCS has a capture rate of up to approximately 90%. However, it is unlikely that CCS will ever reach this level.
The current portfolio of operational CCS projects captures roughly 40 megatonnes (Mt) per year; if we include the upcoming project pipeline, this number increases to 110 Mt per year for projects that are to come online by the end of 2026.
These numbers compare to the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, with 5.6 Gt captured in 2050, representing a 50x increase from the current pipeline. To capture the total addressable market would require an additional 4x increase above the IEA SDS scenario.
“Where we end up will rely heavily on the development in carbon prices, which today are far below the levels needed to support most applications of CCS. The exceptions are perhaps in some European countries and some states in the US, which utilize a combination of emissions trading systems (ETS), carbon tax, carbon credits, or more direct subsidy schemes,” says Marius Foss, senior vice president and head of global energy systems at Rystad Energy.
When it comes to total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), CCS could theoretically address up to 48% of the world’s total, an upwards revision of our last general energy transition report that adds some more industrial GHG emissions.
