据海湾时报2月8日报道，截至上周末，美元指数报91.042，今年迄今已飙升逾1%。在中长期货币前景脆弱的情况下，在当前美国经济大规模货币和财政刺激政策的背景下，美元继续上行的趋势预计仍将得到一定程度的遏制，美联储“长期走低”的立场不变，全球经济有望强劲复苏。
美国上个月增加了4.9万个工作岗位，失业率降至6.3%，这表明劳动力市场正在企稳。截至上周末，欧元兑美元汇率报1.2046，今年迄今欧元下跌逾1%。欧元区的疫苗接种进程滞后，该地区的经济复苏仍遥遥无期，仍存在再次降息的可能，这些都导致欧元走弱。截至上周末，英镑兑美元汇率为1.3735，今年迄今上涨不到1%。上周，在货币政策委员会(MPC)的一致投票下，英格兰银行决定不将利率下调至负值。
截至上周末，日元兑美元汇率为105.39日元，今年迄今已下跌逾2%。截至上周末，瑞士法郎兑美元汇率为0.899。今年迄今该指数已下跌1.5%。印度卢比兑美元汇率为72.92，由于股市的强劲流入，今年迄今卢比已小幅走强。南非兰特兑美元汇率为14.844，今年迄今已下跌逾1%。巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率为5.3778，今年迄今已下跌3.5%。俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为74.6495，今年迄今下跌不到1%。
在出行限制期延长的情况下，油价上涨是否会持续？今年的平均油价预计为55美元/桶，如果需求真的回升，可能很快就会看到石油供应短缺，因为美国的产量不会很快恢复。由于政府在全球范围内分发疫苗，对石油需求增强的预期也在支撑价格，加上欧佩克+产油国较高的减产协议遵守率，只能说市场保持了相当好的供需平衡。
王佳晶 摘译自 海湾时报
原文如下：
Can the oil price rally sustain?
The dollar index was at 91.042 by end of last week and had surged by more than 1% YTD. The continuation of the uptrend in the dollar is expected to remain somewhat contained amidst the fragile outlook for the currency in the medium/longer-term, and always against the backdrop of the current massive monetary/fiscal stimulus in the US economy, the “lower for longer” stance from the Fed and prospects of a strong recovery in the global economy.
The US economy added 49,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, suggesting that the labour market is stabilising. The Euro was at $1.2046 by end of last week and euro weakened by more than 1% YTD. The eurozone seen as lagging behind on vaccinations, an economic recovery seen as still far away and another interest rate cut still a possibility has made the euro weaker. The pound was at $1.3735 by end of last week and surged by less than 1% YTD. Last week the Bank of England opted to not cut interest rates into negative territory, and has done so with a unanimous vote of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The yen was at 105.39 against the US dollar by end of last week and has weakened by more than 2% YTD. The Swiss franc was at 0.899 against the US dollar by end of last week. It had weakened by 1.5% YTD.
On emerging economy currencies the Indian rupee was at 72.92 against the dollar by end of last week and has marginally strengthened YTD on account of strong inflows in stock market.
The South African Rand was at 14.844 against the dollar by end of last week and has weakened by more than 1% YTD.
The Brazil real was at 5.3778 against the dollar by end of last week and has weakened by 3.5% YTD against the dollar.
The Russian rouble was at 74.6495 against the dollar by end of last week and had weakened by less than 1% YTD.
We need to see whether this oil rally sustains amid lockdown extensions. The average oil price this year is expected to be $55/barrel. If demand really picks up, we could see shortage of oil quickly, because US production isn’t going to come back fast. The expectation for stronger oil demand is also supporting prices, with government’s worldwide distributing Covid-19 vaccines. We see a lot of discipline from Opec+ and therefore the market is being held in balance quite well.?
