据2月7日The Motley Fool报道,能源行业的趋势通常是由影响该行业所有公司的广泛而普遍的趋势所定义的。在20世纪初，该行业最大的趋势是，石油作为运输燃料和煤炭作为电力燃料的大幅增长。
在过去的20年里，煤炭已经被天然气和更划算、更清洁的可再生能源发电燃料所取代。交通运输市场很可能是下一个发生重大变化的板块，因为几乎所有的汽车制造商都将推出电动汽车(EVs)。
特斯拉的成功表明电动汽车的需求是强劲的，但这个市场还很年轻，还没有对石油股票造成太大影响。值得注意的是，通用汽车承诺到2035年只生产电动汽车这样的重大举措，将有助于推动世界能源转型，投资者应该对此做好准备!
一是，电动汽车行业的蓬勃发展。
多年来，电动汽车行业一直在缓慢发展，而如今该行业的规模让石油市场赶到不安。根据美国能源部(U.S. Department of Energy)的数据，2011年共有17763辆插电式电动汽车售出，几乎不足以对汽车市场产生影响。但这一数字在2019年增至326644辆。这意味着美国的汽车销量在以每年44%的速度增长，市场份额也从每年约1700万辆的0.1%增长到1.9%左右。
如果美国继续保持44%的增长速度，电动汽车将只需10多年的时间就可以取代所有汽油驱动的汽车。虽然从燃油汽车转型不太可能那么快，但通用汽车的承诺表明，该公司看不到内燃机汽车的未来。随着Fisker、Rivian、Nikola等“新贵”在未来几年推出极具吸引力的产品，燃油汽车的未来看起来并不乐观。
二是，石油市场已陷入困境。
如果电动汽车在汽车行业占据了一定的市场份额，那么石油消费将会缓慢下降，这是有道理的，而这对石油市场来说并不是个好消息。
过去十年里，石油消费增长放缓。尽管2005年至2015年油价高企期间，燃油需求的下降幅度被强劲经济和低油价下卡车和SUV销量的激增所取代。但在过去的15年里，美国的需求在电动汽车行业发展带来重大影响之前，就已经出现了下降的迹象。
这些都表明美国未来十年对石油公司的需求不会强劲。上述数据是针对美国的，但在世界第二大石油消费国，转向电动汽车的速度可能更快。该国汽车工业协会估计，在2021年售出的2600万辆汽车中，有180万辆可能是电动汽车，占6.9%。如果世界上最大的两个石油消费国迅速转向电动汽车，这可能会给已经陷入困境的石油企业带来麻烦。
三是，石油类股不容乐观。
过去十年里，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、道达尔和荷兰皇家壳牌的净利润都在下降，股价也在下跌。如果电动汽车销量继续以现在的速度增长，很多迹象表明石油类股票将变得更糟。
虽然这里着重强调了大型石油公司，但随着电动汽车不断占领市场份额，我们将看到石油行业大大小小的企业都受到了冲击。石油生产商将继续面临价格压力，中游公司需要运输的石油将减少，销售企业将看到销量下降。
未来10年汽车行业的大趋势将是从燃油汽车向电动汽车的转变，而且这一转变的速度比大多数人想象的要快。10年后，石油行业可能会像今天的煤炭行业一样陷入困境。
石油市场可能是下一个下跌的市场，鉴于如此多的汽车公司都在关注电动汽车，投资者应该远离石油类股。
王佳晶 摘译自 The Motley Fool
原文如下：
Warning to Energy Investors: Coal Is Dead and Oil Is Next
The energy industry is often defined by big, sweeping trends that shape all of the companies in it. In the early 20th century, the biggest trends were the growth of oil as a transportation fuel, and coal as a fuel for electricity consumption.
In the past two decades, coal has been shoved aside for natural gas and renewable energy power plants that are more cost-effective and cleaner. Transportation markets are likely next, with electric vehicles (EVs) offered by nearly every manufacturer in the industry.
The success of Tesla has shown that demand for EVs is strong, but the market is still very young and hasn't disrupted oil stocks much yet. But big moves like General Motors' (NYSE:GM) commitment to build nothing but electric vehicles by 2035 will help push the world beyond oil. Investors should prepare themselves and their portfolios now!
The writing is on the wall
EVs have been slowly gaining ground for years, but it's their current scale that makes them so troubling for oil markets. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, there were 17,763 plug-in EVs sold in 2011, barely enough to have an effect on the auto market. But that number increased to 326,644 in 2019. That's an annual growth rate of 44% and a market share increase from 0.1% to about 1.9% of the approximately 17 million vehicles sold each year.
If that 44% growth continues in the U.S., EVs will replace all gasoline-powered vehicles in just over a decade. The transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles won't likely happen that quickly, but GM's commitment shows that it doesn't see a future in internal-combustion vehicles. And with upstarts like Fisker, Rivian, Nikola, and many others hitting the market in the next few years with extremely compelling offerings, the future of gasoline-powered vehicles doesn't look good.
Oil markets struggled even before EVs
If EVs take market share in the auto industry, it would make sense that oil consumption will slowly fall. And that's not good news given the trends taking shape in oil markets.
The chart below shows that we've seen a slowdown, if not decline in oil consumption growth. The chart below shows a decline in oil demand over the past decade, although the trend toward fuel efficiency vehicles from 2005 to 2015 when oil prices were high has been replaced by a surge in truck and SUV sales on the back of a strong economy and low oil prices. But we can see that over the course of 15 years, U.S. demand is already showing signs of declining even before much of an impact of electric vehicles.
None of this points to a strong demand environment for oil companies over the next decade in the U.S. The data above is for the U.S., but in the world's second largest oil consuming country, the shift to EVs may happen more quickly. This country's Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that 1.8 million of the estimated 26 million, or 6.9%, of vehicles sold in 2021 could be EVs. If the two biggest oil consuming countries in the world are shifting quickly to EVs, it could spell trouble for oil businesses that are already starting to struggle.
Oil stocks are in trouble
The next two charts show the kind of financial position some of the biggest companies in the world are in. Over the past decade, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total (NYSE:TOT), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) have all seen net income drop and stock prices flounder.
I think if EV sales continue to grow at the rate they are, there's a lot pointing to the financial condition of oil stocks getting much worse.
I've highlighted big oil companies here, but up and down the oil industry, we will see financial performance struggle as EVs take market share. Producers will continue to see price pressure, midstream companies will have less oil to transport, and marketers will see volumes go down.
Stay away from oil stocks
The megatrend over the next decade will be a transition away from gasoline vehicles to EVs, and it's happening faster than most people think. A decade from now, the oil industry could be in dire straights, just like coal is today.
Oil markets could be the next to fall, and with so many auto companies putting their focus on EVs, investors should stay far away from oil stocks.
