据今日油价2月4日报道，在经历了2020年石油需求暴跌后，本周我们迎来了一些市场复苏的里程碑式进展。西德克萨斯中质原油价格触及并突破了每桶55.00美元的水平，布伦特原油价格接近每桶60美元。这些是市场的一些重要心理障碍关卡，如果当前势头持续保持下去，就像预期的那样，将推高价格。
首先，库存下降的报告支撑了油价。
美国石油协会宣布，原油库存大幅减少约430万桶，预计后续将小幅增加。汽油和馏分油库存的下降支撑了这一价格走势，这表明炼油厂正在生产产品以满足当前和预期的需求。
最近几周，油价一直不受不利数据(原油和成品油库存增加)的影响，并继续小幅走高。需求得到确认后，市场松了一口气，推动西德克萨斯中质原油价格突破了每桶55.00美元的关键关口。
如果美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据是乐观的，我们预计原油、西德克萨斯中质原油和布伦特原油价格将继续走高，同时，原油价格的持续上涨将很快扭转石油股票市场的低迷局面。要知道，石油股票价格从近期高点下跌15-20%，这与近期石油相关基础数据的强劲走势明显脱节。
其次，原油供应量回到5年来平均水平。
上周的供应量约为9.9万桶，这是自2020年年中以来，供应量首次回到5年平均水平。这消除了原油价格持续上涨的另一个心理障碍，因为市场现在开始将担忧从库存过剩转移到安全供应上。
EIA指出，上周炼油厂产量有所增加，这是意料之外的。但尽管如此，仍然比一年前少了200万桶/天。这一增长对价格是有利的，因为它意味着零售层面的需求不断上升。
第三，美国石油产量开始下降。
过去一个月的时间里，由于钻探但未完成的原油产量上升了约1100万桶/天。尽管新钻井数量在增加，但仍然没有达到可以完全抵消油田递减(每年6-40%)的水平。美国国内原油产量从2020年3月创下的最高纪录1310万桶/天下降了230万桶/天。
本周，EIA报告称，原油日产量温和下降10万桶至1090万桶。报告指出，石油产量的下降发生在美国本土的48个州，这与页岩油产量的下降有关。该机构2月的报告预测，2月份页岩油田的产量将下降约8.9万桶/天。
第四，关于2021年油价的预期。
截止目前，油价持续上涨的关键指标已经到位。现在必须解决的问题之一是，在定价方面，可以期待什么，以及这一切会以多快的速度发生?
高盛最近要求布伦特原油价格在年中达到每桶65美元。由于近期布伦特原油和WTI原油的价差较窄(2-3.00美元)，这将使WTI原油价格处于每桶60美元的低点。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管杰弗里 柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“随着疫苗在全球推出，从2021年第二季度开始市场快速收紧的可能性正在上升，因为需求的反弹凸显了生产商重启生产的能力。”
有机构认为油价达到每桶65.00美元的水平还要更长的时间。从高盛之前报告的保守基调来看，这份报告也可能是保守的，这意味着年中会为相关力量的发挥提供一些缓冲。主要相关外部力量是新冠肺炎疫苗的推广和新感染和住院率的持续下降。
在钻井和水力压裂开采中，不应该预计WTI的价格会在高盛预计的那样，在年中之前持续稳定在每桶60美元以上，因为也有看跌力量在发挥作用，可能会抑制价格的上涨。
第五，石油市场的消极因素。
今年1月初，沙特向石油市场赠送了一份“礼物”，宣布将额外减少每日100万桶的原油供应。随着油价上涨，欧佩克内外都将施加压力，要求其开始恢复生产。这也意味着，这一让上涨的石油市场感到意料之外的妙招，将永远是一种过渡举措。
因此，随着油价的上涨，沙特和欧佩克+将从通过限制产量来支撑价格，转向保护其市场份额不受竞争对手的影响。预计，这一举措在不远的将来将减缓库存的下降，从而限制价格在将来的大幅飙升。
现在，我们将目光聚焦到中国，该国在2020年几乎是凭一己之力购买了大量石油，支撑了油价。这些廉价原油可能会提供大约3亿桶石油的缓冲，以便在油价过快上涨时使用。
总的来说，看涨的力量多于看跌的力量，原油价格应该会继续走高。支持这一论点的关键是记录中的储油量的下降，以及目前新增石油产量下降到每天1100万桶以下。如果油价继续上涨(预计这将得益于新冠病毒感染率下降带来的经济复苏)，油价将别无选择，只能随着时间的推移走高。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
How High Will Oil Prices Go This Year?
This week we hit some milestones in the year-long recovery from the oil demand crash of 2020. West Texas Intermediate, (WTI) hit and moved past the $55.00 level, and Brent moved closer to $60. These are some important psychological barriers for the market, and if sustained, as we expect they will be, will push prices higher.
What happened?
The API announced a significant draw of ~4.3 mm barrels in crude stocks yesterday when a modest build was expected. Moves lower in gasoline and distillate stocks bolstered this price move, as it suggested refineries were cranking out product to meet present and anticipated demand.
In recent weeks oil prices had been resistant to adverse data (inventory builds of crude and refined products) and had continued to inch higher. The market’s relief at this confirmation of demand pushed prices for WTI through that critical $55.00 threshold.
If the EIA confirms this move today, (these reports are sometimes contradictory), we expect another push higher for both crudes, WTI and Brent. Particularly if the confirmation is of significant proportions, like 8-10 mm barrels. Continued price advances in crude will soon reverse the sluggishness we have seen in the oil equities market. Oil equities prices are typically off 15-20% from recent highs in an apparent disconnect from the recent strength in the underlying data regarding oil.
Crude stocks are falling into the 5-year range
Last week’s ~9.9 mm bbl draw moved the supply graph back into the 5-year average for the first time since mid-2020. This removes another psychological barrier for the continued rise in crude prices, as the market will now begin to shift its concern from inventory overhang to worrying about secure supplies. I discussed this in detail in an OilPrice article last month.
The EIA also noted an increase in refinery throughput for the previous week, which is not something you expect this time of year. That said, we are still off about 2-mm BOPD from a year ago. This increase is bullish for prices as it implies rising demand at the retail level.
U.S. Production is starting to fall
Crude oil production thanks to Drilled but Uncompleted, (DUC’s) withdrawal has levitated around 11.0 mm BOEPD for the past month or so. This, in spite of the level of new drilling, (although on the increase), still not being at a level that will totally offset field decline rates, (6-40% per annum). Domestic crude production is down 2.3 mm BOEPD from its all-time high set in March of 2020, at 13.1 mm BOEPD.
This week the EIA reported a modest decline of 100K BOEPD to 10.9 mm BOEPD. Taking place in the lower 48, as noted by the EIA report, it’s not a stretch to connect this decline to falling shale production. We will have an additional guidepost when the EIA publishes its Drilling Productivity Report, (DPR), the next iteration of which is due February, 16th. Last month’s report forecast a decline from shale fields of ~89K BOEPD in February.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2021
The key indicators are in place for a continued increase in oil prices, as we have noted so far. One of the questions we now have to tackle is what can we expect in terms of pricing, and how fast might this happen?
Goldman Sachs, (NYSE:GS), has recently called for $65 Brent by mid-year. With the narrow spread ($2-3.00) between Brent and WTI in recent times, this would put WTI into the low $60’s. Goldman's global head of commodities research, Jeffrey Currie, said in a note that accompanied the report-
“With vaccines being rolled out across the world, the likelihood of a fast tightening market from 2Q 2021 is rising as the rebound in demand stresses the ability of producers to restart production."
The advent of this report moves Goldman’s forecast for the attainment of the $65.00 level by about months. With the conservative tone of previous Goldman reports, it’s likely that this also errs to the conservative side, meaning that mid-year provides them with some cushion for the relevant forces to play out. The chief relevant external force being the roll-out of the Covid vaccine and new infection and hospitalization rates continuing to decline.
in drilling and fracking taking place we shouldn’t expect sustained pricing over $60 for WTI before Goldman’s estimate of mid-year as there are bearish forces also in play that could put a damper on the rise.
Key countervailing forces that might dampen the market’s enthusiasm
The Saudis gave the oil market a gift early in January with the announcement that they were going to withhold another 1-mm BOPD from the market. As prices rise there is going to be pressure internally and externally from OPEC+ to start restoring production. This is baked-in though, meaning that this master-stroke that turned an already rising oil market on its ear, so-to-speak, was always going to be a transition move.
So with rising oil prices, the chances increase that the Saudis and OPEC+ will shift from supporting prices with restrained production to protecting their market share from competitors.
That move which we anticipate is not far in the future will act to slow inventory declines, which will keep prices from spiking too sharply in the near future.
Moving on we have China which almost single-handedly supported oil prices with its massive purchases last year. Estimates vary but China’s buying of cheap crude last year may give them a ~300 mm bbl cushion upon which to draw if prices rise too quickly.
There are more bullish forces at play than bearish in my estimation, and the push higher for crude should continue. The key points supporting that contention are the declines in storage that we have documented here, and the current roll-over in new production to below 11.0 mm BOEPD. If those continue, as we expect they will thanks to a recovery led by declines in new Covid infection rates, crude has no alternative to going higher as the year advances.
