据2月1日OGJ报道，在2020年年中触及历史低点后，全球天然气价格出现反弹，涨幅达4-10倍。高企的现货价格应会回落，但摩根士丹利重申:到2023年，LNG供应将出现短缺。价格波动性导致了市场混乱，创造了全球性的交叉投资机会。
与摩根士丹利2019年发布的展望一致，过去两年，日益增长的液化天然气贸易创造了一个全球互联的天然气市场，并出现了一波供应过剩的浪潮。
在2019年天然气价格下跌50%，并在2020年初进一步暴跌60%之后，去年5月，全球主要天然气基准价格在大约2美元/百万英热的水平上实现了几十年来的首次平稳。自那以后，汽油价格大幅上涨。欧洲天然气价格(TTF)上涨了4倍以上，而亚洲LNG现货价格(JKM)上涨了10倍以上，达到了超过25美元/百万英热的历史最高水平。
摩根士丹利表示，需求的增长速度是供应的两倍，这支持了持续多年的LNG市场热潮。但新冠肺炎疫情极大地改变了许多大宗商品市场，重新设定了许多能源价值链的前景。对于液化天然气，它的项目批准数量创纪录，而其持续供过于求的趋势也发生了转变。
2020年对2025年天然气的总供给预期下降了15%，而需求却非常有弹性，只下降了3%，仍然显示出强劲的结构性增长。虽然最近的油价飙升导致2021年夏季的价格过高，造成了一些短期的价格下行风险，但一个新的多年上行周期可能已经开始。到2022年，市场将恢复平衡，到2023年将出现供应短缺，将导致2020年至2023年期间，液化天然气价格两次上涨，这也意味着未来一年的期货价格将上涨20%以上。
王佳晶 摘译自OGJ
Morgan Stanley: A new cycle begins for global gas, LNG
After hitting historic lows mid-2020, global gas prices staged a rally, up 4-10 times. Elevated spot prices should moderate, but Morgan Stanley reiterates its call for a multiyear LNG recovery with a supply shortfall by 2023.
After hitting historic lows mid-2020, global gas prices staged a rally, up 4-10 times. Elevated spot prices should moderate, but Morgan Stanley reiterates its call for a multiyear LNG recovery with a supply shortfall by 2023. Volatility has led to dislocations, creating global cross-asset opportunities.
In-line with Morgan Stanley’s outlook set forth in 2019, growing trade of LNG has created a globally interconnected gas market and a wave of oversupply through much of the last 2 years.
After a 50% price decline in 2019 and a further 60% collapse through the beginning of 2020, key global gas benchmarks achieved parity for the first time in decades last May at around $2/MMbtu. Since then, gas prices have staged a significant rally. European prices (TTF) have increased more than four times while spot Asian LNG (JKM) have increased more than 10 times, reaching a record high of over $25/MMbtu.
According to Morgan Stanley, demand is growing two times faster than supply, supporting a multiyear recovery. COVID-19 drastically altered many commodity markets, resetting the outlook across many parts of the energy value chain. For LNG, it broke a trend of record project sanctioning and persistent oversupply.
“Over the past year, our expectations for total supply have fallen by 15% through 2025, while demand has been strikingly resilient - down only 3% and still exhibiting strong structural growth. While the recent price spike has left summer 2021 prices over-extended, creating some near-term price risk to the downside, a new multiyear up-cycle has likely begun. The market is set to return to balance by 2022 before shifting into a supply shortfall by 2023, driving a 2-time increase in LNG prices 2020-23 and implying above 20% upside to out-year futures prices.”
