据2月4日Trade Arabia消息：在疫苗乐观、美国刺激计划、美元疲软前景和欧佩克严格纪律的共同作用下，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油可能在年底分别突破70美元/桶和65美元/桶。
根据日本领先的全球金融服务集团三菱UFJ金融集团(MUFG)的最新《石油市场周刊》，自2020年第二季度的峰值库存以来，石油的稳定再平衡在整个冬季一直没有减弱，并且自2021年初以来，需求指标已经回升，这表明年底的疲软在很大程度上是季节性的，而不是完全由更严格的流动性限制所驱动。
加上亚洲天气比预期寒冷而出人意料地提振了市场，这是一个强烈的信号，表明市场将继续处于供不应求状态。
MUFG在报告中说：“随着疫苗在发达市场的推广步伐加快，这可能是最后一次没有抗疫苗变体的大范围封锁，一旦度过第一季度冬季的减速期，我们就看到了继续实现再平衡的明确道路。”
这通过现货溢价(现货溢价是一种看涨结构，较近期合约的交易价格高于较晚合约，从而表明供应紧张)强化了正套利，使投资者能够持有石油(以及更广泛的大宗商品)，以对冲金融市场的不确定性，并因此获得回报。这与2020年大部分时间的利差形成鲜明对比，当时利差急剧下降，使现金零利率成为对金融市场不确定性的更安全对冲。
从油价角度来看，基本面收紧的轨迹更加清晰，导致库存迅速回落至正常水平，这给布伦特原油和WTI先前的预测带来了明显的上行风险。
冯娟 摘译自 Trade Arabia
原文如下：
Oil likely to breach $70 by year-end: MUFG
Spurred by a confluence of vaccine optimism, US stimulus, prospects of a weaker US dollar and stern Opec+ discipline, Brent and WTI are likely to breach $70 per barrel (/b) and $65/b, respectively by year-end, a report said.
Oil’s steady rebalancing since peak inventories in Q2 2020 has continued unabated throughout winter, and since the start of 2021, demand indicators have picked up, signalling year-end softness was largely seasonal, rather than entirely driven by tighter mobility restrictions, according to the latest Oil Market Weekly from the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), a leading global financial services group in Japan.
This, in conjunction with the unexpected boost from colder than expected weather in Asia, is a strong signal that the market will remain in a deficit (demand above supply).
“With vaccine rollouts now gathering pace across developed markets during what is likely the last widespread lockdown without a vaccine-resistant variant, we see a clear path to continued rebalancing once we move past the Q1 winter speed bump,” MUFG said in the report.
This strengthens the positive carry via backwardation – a bullish structure where nearer-dated contracts trade at a premium to later-dated one and thus signalling supply tightness – which allows investors to own oil (and broader commodities) as a hedge against financial market uncertainty and be rewarded for doing so. This stands in stark contrast to most of 2020 when the carry was sharply negative, making zero interest on cash a much safer hedge to financial market uncertainty.
From an oil price perspective, the clearer trajectory in a tightening in fundamentals leading to a swifter draw of inventories back to normalised levels brings clear upside risks to previous Brent and WTI forecasts.
The sheer velocity of the leg up in oil prices since the turn of the year prompts further price hikes, as markets continue to carve out new contours of normality towards a post-virus equilibrium, the report said.
