据2月3日纽约时报报道，大型石油公司在2020年因疫情损失了数十亿美元，它们面临着如何适应气候变化和监管法规的普遍问题，大型石油公司可能无法再称之为“巨头”了。
埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)、英国石油公司(BP)和其他大型石油公司去年总共损失了数百亿美元，创下多年来最糟糕的业绩，对一些公司来说，也是数十年来最糟糕的业绩。
这在很大程度上要归咎于新冠肺炎疫情。随着各地区纷纷出台出行限制措施，人们呆在家里，汽油、柴油和航空燃料的需求减少。加上人们对气候变化的担忧日益加剧、监管更加严格，以及电动汽车和卡车的兴起，这样“痛苦”的年份可能会变得更加普遍，迫使人们对上个世纪大部分时间主导全球经济的汽车行业进行清算。通用汽车（generalmotors）上周进一步提高了对汽车业的投资，称其目标是在2035年前废除内燃机，只销售电动汽车。
石油行业正在缓慢地向清洁能源主导的未来过渡。英国石油、壳牌、道达尔和其他欧洲公司在减少石油消耗的同时，也在海上风能和太阳能领域投入了大量资源。但这些投资不太可能在数年内得到回报，甚至可能是10年或20年内都无法看到回报。
美国石油巨头从化石燃料转向其他行业的速度要慢得多，但它们正感受到来自投资者的越来越大的压力。埃克森美孚表示，将投资30亿美元于一项名为“低碳解决方案”(Low Carbon Solutions)的新业务，该业务最初将专注于碳捕获和封存项目。
埃克森美孚报告称，2020年该公司亏损224亿美元，而2019年盈利143亿美元。大部分亏损来自193亿美元的资产减记，其中包括该公司在能源价格较高时收购的天然气业务。
英国石油公司表示，2020年亏损57亿美元，这是十年来的首次亏损。2019年，该公司盈利100亿美元。现在，该公司将从约7万名员工中裁减至少1万个职位，并出售其认为不再需要的约250亿美元业务。
美国最大的独立生产商康菲石油公司(Conoco Phillips)2020年亏损27亿美元。雪佛龙表示，该公司亏损55亿美元，而2019年盈利了29亿美元。
尽管如此，石油高管们在谈到未来时仍试图表现出乐观的语气，他们辩称，随着疫苗推广的加速，以及经济活动从疫情最严重的时期复苏，公司的业务将在2021年反弹。
埃克森美孚首席执行官Darren W. Woods表示："我们认为未来会有更多机会，我对我们今天的表现感到满意。从第一季度来看，已经超出了预期。”
在去年的大部分时间里，投资者对埃克森美孚感到不满，华尔街盛传该公司将削减股息以保留现金。与去年1月初相比，该公司股价暴跌了大约一半，值得一提的是，在2020年11月，该公司股价跌至31美元，为近20年来的最低水平。
目前，埃克森美孚的股价已回升至46美元左右，主要是因为最近几周能源价格强劲反弹。今年石油价格上涨了近10%，东北部的暴风雪推高了用于家庭和企业供暖的天然气价格。埃克森美孚的股息现在看来是安全的，除了冲销之外，埃克森美孚在去年第四季度还获得了少量利润。
战略能源与经济研究公司(Strategic Energy and Economy Research)总裁迈克尔·c·林奇(Michael C. Lynch)表示：“这个行业经历了地狱般的时期，然后又恢复过来了。他们基本上挺过了他们所面临过的最糟糕的环境，从现在开始，几乎可以肯定的是，价格和需求都会上升。”
高盛(Goldman Sachs)预测，油价可能会再涨10美元，到7月份最高可达每桶65美元。这将是一次显著的复苏，而在2020年的大部分时间里，油价还不到这一水平的一半，尽管它仍将远低于大约10年前的价格，当时每桶石油的价格超过140美元，石油公司也创造了创纪录的利润。
近年来，石油行业不断遭受冲击，在2007年12月开始的衰退期间里，油价暴跌。2015年，欧佩克向市场大量供应原油，以削减美国的产量。2019年，疫情肆虐。该行业的困境迫使许多公司裁员并削减股息。几十家曾经辉煌的企业，比如切萨皮克能源公司，近年来宣布破产。
即使现在情况似乎有所改善，该行业的前景仍然不确定。由于新型冠状病毒变种的出现，目前尚不清楚美国、欧洲和其他主要经济体将以多快的速度控制病毒传播，另外还有更大的关于气候变化的问题。
英国石油首席执行官伯纳德·鲁尼(Bernard Looney)敦促公司在海上风力发电场和氢生产等领域大举投资，为世界减少石油和天然气的使用做好准备。但他承认，其中一些投资可能要到21世纪30年代才能带来回报，在一段时间内，该公司仍将依赖石油和天然气获取利润。
尽管如此，鲁尼表示，他限制在美国境内开采新的石油和天然气的决定表示支持。
此外，埃克森美孚采取了不同的策略，其首席执行官承认，石油行业将面临更多动荡。
Woods表示：“我们不知道未来价格将如何走向，我们的计划是重建资产负债表，这样我们就能在未来承受任何冲击。”
王佳晶 摘译自 纽约时报
原文如下：
After a Bruising Year, the Oil Industry Confronts a Diminished Future
Big oil companies lost billions in 2020 because of the pandemic and face broad questions about how they will adapt to climate change and regulations.
Big Oil isn’t so big anymore.
Exxon Mobil, BP and other large oil companies collectively lost tens of billions of dollars last year, posting their worst performance in years and, for some companies, in decades.
The pandemic was largely to blame. It sapped demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as countries and states locked down and people stayed home. But such painful years could become more commonplace as growing concerns about climate change, tighter regulations, and the rise of electric cars and trucks force a reckoning for an industry that has dominated the global economy over much of the last century. General Motors further raised the stakes for the industry last week when it said it aimed to do away with internal combustion engines and sell only electric cars by 2035.
The oil industry is slowly transitioning to a future dominated by cleaner energy. BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total and other European companies are investing considerable resources in offshore wind and solar energy while cutting back on oil. But those investments are unlikely to pay off for years, maybe even a decade or two.
The American oil majors have been far slower to pivot from fossil fuels, but they are feeling increasing pressure from investors to change their business models. Exxon said this week that it was investing $3 billion in a new business called Low Carbon Solutions, which will initially focus on carbon capture and sequestration projects.
On Tuesday, Exxon reported that it lost $22.4 billion in 2020, compared with a profit of $14.3 billion in 2019. Much of the loss came from a $19.3 billion write-down of assets, including natural gas operations that the company acquired when energy prices were much higher.
And BP said on Tuesday that it lost $5.7 billion last year — its first loss in a decade. The company made a $10 billion profit in 2019. Now the company is cutting at least 10,000 jobs from a work force of about 70,000 people and selling some $25 billion in businesses it decided it didn’t need anymore.
Conoco Phillips, the largest American independent producer, lost $2.7 billion for the year. Chevron said last week that it had lost $5.5 billion, down from a profit of $2.9 billion in 2019.
Still, oil executives tried to strike an optimistic tone when speaking about the future, arguing that their business would bounce back in 2021 as vaccine distribution accelerated and economic activity recovered from the depths of the pandemic.
“We see more opportunity down the road,” Darren W. Woods, Exxon’s chief executive, who normally skips the company’s quarterly conference call with Wall Street analysts, said on the call Tuesday. “I feel good about where we are today. As I look at the first quarter we are already ahead of where we thought we would be.”
Through much of the last year, investors soured on Exxon, and Wall Street was rife with rumors that the company would slash its dividend to preserve cash. The share price had plummeted by roughly half from early last January — sinking as low as $31 in November, its lowest level in nearly 20 years.
But Exxon’s share price has climbed back to about $46, principally because energy prices have recovered strongly in recent weeks. Oil prices are up by nearly 10 percent this year, and the blizzard in the Northeast is driving up natural gas prices because the fuel is used to heat homes and businesses. Exxon’s dividend now appears safe. And aside from the write-downs, Exxon made a small profit in the last three months of the year.
“The industry has been to hell and back,” said Michael C. Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economy Research. “They’ve mostly survived the worst circumstances they have ever faced, and it’s all but certain things will look up from here in terms of price and demand.”
Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil prices could rise another $10 a barrel, to as high as $65 by July. That would be a remarkable recovery from prices that languished at less than half that for much of 2020, though it would remain far below prices of a decade or so ago, when a barrel of oil surpassed $140 and oil companies were making record profits.
The industry has suffered repeated shocks in recent years, with prices plummeting during the recession that started in December 2007, again in 2015 when OPEC flooded the market with crude to undercut American production, and last year, when the pandemic took hold.
The industry’s pain forced many companies to lay off employees and cut dividends. Dozens of once high-flying businesses, like Chesapeake Energy, declared bankruptcy in recent years.
Even now, when conditions seem to be improving, the industry’s prospects remain uncertain. Because of the emergence of new coronavirus variants, it is not clear how quickly the United States, Europe and other major economies will get virus spread under control. And then there are the larger questions about climate change.
BP’s chief executive, Bernard Looney, has pushed his company to invest heavily in areas like offshore wind farms and hydrogen production to prepare for a world that uses less oil and gas. But he acknowledged on Tuesday that the payoff from some of these investments might not come until the 2030s and that the company would remain reliant on oil and gas for its profits for some time.
Still, Mr. Looney said in an interview on Tuesday that he welcomed President Biden’s commitment to fighting climate change. The new president has signed executive orders directing the government to raise fuel economy standards and limit new oil and gas drilling on federal lands.
Exxon has taken a different tack. But even its chief executive appeared to acknowledge that the industry was in for more turbulence.
“We don’t know where prices are going to go,” Mr. Woods told analysts. “Our plan is to rebuild the balance sheet so we can be in a position going forward to absorb any shocks that come in the future.”
