据ICIS网站2月3日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）周三表示，在最佳情况下，到2023年，美国工业行业的石油和其他液体消费量（主要用作塑料生产的原料）可能恢复至疫情前的水平。
在《2021年年度能源展望》中，EIA估计，到2029年，美国能源消费总量应恢复到2019年的水平。
EIA负责能源分析的助理行政官Angelina LaRose表示，美国工业行业消耗的能源比任何其他终端使用行业都多，预计2020年至2050年间，美国工业行业的能源消耗增长速度将是任何其他行业的近两倍。
EIA表示，从产量来看，油价将继续是钻井活动的主要驱动力，美国将继续是全球重要的原油和天然气供应国。
从2023年开始，到2050年，石油和天然气产量将保持在历史高位。预计2050年布伦特原油价格将达到95美元/桶。
EIA的预测取决于经济增长的速度，因此预测是在基准、最坏和最佳情况下进行。
EIA称，致密油主要推动了石油产量前景的增长，尤其是二叠纪盆地的Wolfcamp区块和Williston盆地的Bakken区块。
EIA预测，2020-2050年间，由于天然气发电所占份额相对持平，以及煤炭和核能发电所占份额下降一半，可再生能源发电所占份额将增加。
王磊 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
US industrial energy consumption to return to ’19 levels faster than other sectors – EIA
US consumption of petroleum and other liquids from the industrial sector, primarily for use as feedstocks in the production of plastics, could return to pre-pandemic levels by 2023 in a best-case scenario, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
In its 2021 Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA estimated total US energy consumption should return to 2019 levels by 2029.
Angelina LaRose, EIA assistant administrator for energy analysis, said the US industrial sector consumes more energy than any other end-use sector, and its energy use is projected to grow nearly twice as fast as any other sector between 2020 and 2050.
Looking at production, oil price will continue to be the primary driver of drilling activity, the EIA said, with the US continuing to be an important global provider of crude oil and natural gas.
Starting in 2023, oil and natural gas production in the reference case remains at historically high levels through 2050. The base case anticipates the Brent crude price at $95/bbl in 2050.
The EIA's forecasts depend on the speed of economic growth, so projections are presented in base-, worst- and best-case scenarios.
Tight oil is primarily driving the growth in the oil production outlook, the EIA said, specifically from the Wolfcamp play in the Permian Basin and the Bakken play in the Williston Basin.
The EIA forecasts increased share of electricity production from renewables from 2020-2050 as the share of natural gas-fired generation remains relatively flat, and as the contribution from the coal and nuclear fleets drop by half.
