据今日油价1月26日消息称，Rystad Energy对海恩斯和布恩的数据分析显示，根据美国破产法第11章申请破产保护的北美勘探开发公司和油田服务公司的债务总额去年跃升至1020亿美元，首次超过1000亿美元大关。尽管申请破产保护的公司数量低于2016年经济低迷时期，但108家申请破产保护的公司的平均债务几乎是去年的两倍，达到创纪录的9.4亿美元。
去年可以说是北美油气行业历史上最具破坏性的一年。即便如此，Rystad Energy的分析结论是通过淘汰陷入困境的公司，并允许其健康的竞争对手继续留在竞争场上，快速减少了市场参与者的数量。
2020年最后三个月WTI价格的复苏有助于减缓申请破产的数量。Rystad Energy预计，如果目前的WTI油价水平在2021年持续在53美元，申请数量将再次恢复正常，降至大流行前的水平，今年达到26起，2022年达到22起，低于2020年的46起，与2017-2018年的水平相近。
Rystad Energy页岩研究主管Artem Abramov表示：“从本质上说，几乎所有公共的勘探和生产厂商现在都可以顺利度过2021年，没有重大的破产风险。然而，无论如何，我们应该记住，有一定数量的公司申请破产是正常的，应该被视为油气业务不可分割的一部分。”
去年，破产的勘探生产公司的债务总额比2016年减少约6亿美元，为562亿美元，而2016年为568亿美元。然而，去年每家公司的平均债务达到了创纪录的12亿美元，这表明2017年至2020年期间，申报债务的平均规模大幅增加。
去年勘探生产公司破产的一个重要原因是2019年开始的一种趋势的结果，当时我们看到美国标准勘探生产业务模式发生巨大变化，可用资金减少。这促使一些公司在早期申请破产保护，在支撑资产负债表和获得运营资金之间进行艰难的权衡。
在油田服务方面，在2020年提交的62份破产案中，债务总额为450亿美元，远远超过了2017年创下的350亿美元的纪录。这一数字的很大一部分来自于主要的海上钻井公司，包括Diamond、Noble、Valaris和Seadrill Partners。以陆上为重点的服务提供商和供应商也做出了重大贡献——在案件数量上略高于债务总额。
积极的一面是，去年最后三个月，北美石油和天然气公司申请破产保护活动已经平静了不少。自 2020 年9月以来，OFS 和 E&P 的月度破产债务总额一直低于62亿美元。
市场基本面改善救了一大批企业。由于WTI的交易价格高于53美元/桶，且活动指标呈上升趋势，他们可能会对自己有能力避免在2021年寻求破产保护感到更加放心。
Abramov总结道：“随着WTI 价格处在53美元，该行业正在恢复正常运营模式。同样重要的是要记住，那些资产负债表最薄弱的公司已经申请了破产。如果有什么不同的话，市场基本面的改善将加速从2020年开始的重组过程，一些勘探开发公司可能会在2021年更快地恢复业务。”
预计在2021-2022年申请破产保护的勘探开发公司的平均债务规模将大大低于2020年的平均水平。因此，申请破产保护的公司背后的债务总额预计将从 2020 年的 560 亿美元下降至 2021-2022 年的每年100亿美元—130 亿美元—这清楚地表明，该行业正受益于市场的上升周期。
曹海斌 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
U.S. Oil Bankruptcies To Fall As Prices Stabilize
The combined debt of North American E&P and oilfield service companies that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last year jumped to $102 billion, surpassing the $100 billion mark for the first time, a Rystad Energy analysis of Haynes and Boone data shows. While the number of filings was lower than in the 2016 downturn, the average debt of the 108 companies that filed for Chapter 11 was almost twice as high at a record $940 million.
Last year was arguably the most devastating year in history for the North American oil and gas industry. Even so, Rystad Energy’s analysis concludes that 2020’s round of Chapter 11 filings fast-tracked an overdue reduction in the number of market participants by removing troubled companies and allowing their healthier competitors to remain in the playing field.
A recovery in WTI prices in the last three months of 2020 helped slow down the number of Chapter 11 filings. If the current oil price level of almost $53 WTI persists in 2021, Rystad Energy expects the filings count to normalize again and sink to pre-pandemic standards, reaching around 26 E&P cases this year and 22 in 2022, down from 46 filings in 2020 and similar to 2017–2018 levels.
“In essence, nearly all public E&P producers are now positioned to navigate 2021 without significant bankruptcy risks. Nevertheless, regardless of the upcycle, we should keep in mind that a certain number of Chapter 11 E&P cases is normal and should be viewed as an integral part of the oil and gas business,“ says Artem Abramov, Head of Shale Research at Rystad Energy.
Last year’s total Chapter 11 debt for E&P companies fell around $600 million short of the number recorded in 2016, at $56.2 billion vs $56.8 billion. However, the average debt per company reached a record high of $1.2 billion last year, indicating that the average size of the filings increased substantially between 2017 and 2020.
A significant part of last year’s E&P Chapter 11 activity was the result of a trend that started in 2019, when we saw a massive change in the standard US E&P business model with reduced availability of capital. This contributed to early Chapter 11 filings by companies dealing with a challenging trade-off between shoring up their balance sheet and securing funds for operations.
On the oilfield services side, total Chapter 11 debt in the 62 filings made in 2020 ended up at $45 billion, surpassing by a wide margin the previous record of $35 billion set in 2017. A large contribution to this number came from major offshore drillers, including Diamond, Noble, Valaris and Seadrill Partners. Onshore-focused service providers and suppliers also contributed significantly – somewhat more in the number of cases than in total debt.
On a positive note, Chapter 11 activity for North American oil and gas players had already calmed down quite a bit in the final three months of last year. The total monthly Chapter 11 debt has remained below $6.2 billion since September 2020, for both OFS and E&Ps combined.
A large number of companies were saved by the improvement in market fundamentals. They can feel even more comfortable about their ability to avoid seeking Chapter 11 protection in 2021, as WTI trades above $53 per barrel and activity metrics are trending upwards.
“With WTI at $53, the industry is getting back to a normal operations mode. It is also important to keep in mind that the companies with the weakest balance sheets have already filed for bankruptcy. If anything, improved market fundamentals will accelerate the restructuring process that started in 2020 and some E&Ps might return to business faster in 2021,“ Abramov concludes.
The average debt size of the E&P companies projected to file for bankruptcy protection in 2021–2022 will be dramatically lower than the average seen in 2020. Total debt behind Chapter 11 E&P filings is therefore expected to fall from $56 billion in 2020 to $10 billion–$13 billion per year in 2021–2022 – clear evidence that the industry is benefiting from an upcycle in the market.
