据1月29日BBC报道，柬埔寨首相洪森(Hun Sen)表示，从2021年起，石油生产将是柬埔寨经济的福音，该部门的收入将用于改善教育和健康系统。
柬埔寨很可能拥有大量的石油工业的国家，它们的石油产业为政府收入做出了关键贡献。
根据世界银行(World Bank)的数据，过去20年柬埔寨经济一直在持续增长，平均每年增长7.7%。但在经历了20年的强劲增长后，由于新冠肺炎疫情，经济急剧下滑。在这个困难时期，这个国家经济可能需要提振。
2020年柬埔寨的经济萎缩了约2%，占经济增长70%和就业39%的建筑业、旅游业和商品出口受到的冲击尤其严重。
一些分析人士认为，柬埔寨的石油产业可能规模仍太小，无法带动经济复苏。
2017年，该国与新加坡上市公司KrisEnergy达成协议，开发高棉盆地3083平方公里的区块。KrisEnergy估计，第一阶段的开发将产生约7500桶/天的石油。不过，该公司目前还不清楚是否有可能到柬埔寨油田进行进一步的开发。
KrisEnergy发言人Tanya Pang表示:“我们需要研究至少6个月的生产数据，然后才能根据油藏产能决定如何进行下一步。”
即使石油行业确实大幅扩张，柬埔寨仍是一个石油小国。根据美国能源信息署(US Energy Information Administration)的数据，最大的产油国，包括美国、沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的日产量均超过1000万桶。甚至邻国泰国的石油日产量也超过了50万桶原油。
总部位于金边的企业咨询公司Mekong Partners的斯蒂芬·希金斯（Stephen Higgins）表示：“当然，产量可能会较多。但即使KrisEnergy在柬埔寨的油田的产量翻倍，也不会对柬埔寨经济产生转型的作用。”
初步估计，该油田可能非常重要。雪佛龙将其股份出售给了KrisEnergy，该公司的一位管理人员表示，该油田的储量可能高达7亿桶。后来的估计显示，该油田的产量要低得多，约为3000万桶。KrisEnergy认为，可采石油储量不到1000万桶。
柬埔寨从该项目中获得的收入有望小幅增长。除去特许权使用费和税收，政府将从该项目中可以赚取约5亿美元。与邻国的收入相比，这个数字很小。马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas)通常提供大约五分之一的政府收入。东帝汶用180亿美元石油基金的利息，提供了约88%的政府收入。
王佳晶 摘译自 BBC
原文如下：
Can striking oil turn Cambodia's economy around?
In a Facebook post, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen described the country’s first few drops of oil as “a blessing for Cambodia” and “an important first step”.
The project, which started pumping oil at the end of December, had been 15 years in the making and had suffered several false starts.
Hun Sen said oil production would be a boon for Cambodia’s economy from 2021 onwards and that revenues from the sector would be used to improve education and health.
Cambodia might well look with envy at some of its neighbours, with substantial oil industries that make a key contribution to government revenues.
But will its nascent oil sector be able to make a real difference to Cambodia’s economic future?
Hard times The country could use a boost. It suffered a sharp economic downturn due to the Covid-19 pandemic, after two decades of strong growth.
Although Cambodia is one of Southeast Asia’s poorest countries, it has seen consistent growth over the last two decades, averaging 7.7% a year according to the World Bank.
Clothing makers give stark virus warning
How the Donut King went from rags to riches - twice
Australia and East Timor sign border deal But Cambodia’s economy shrank by about 2% last year.
Construction, tourism and merchandise exports, which accounted for 70% of growth and 39% of employment, were particularly badly hit.
Small industry
Some analysts believe the oil sector will likely remain too small to lead an economic recovery in Cambodia.
The country struck a deal with Singapore-listed KrisEnergy in 2017 to develop 3,083 square kilometres of the Khmer basin. KrisEnergy estimates that the first phase of development will generate around 7,500 barrels a day.
The company doesn’t know yet if the project is likely to extend to further development of oil fields in Cambodia.
“We will need to study production data for at least six months before deciding how to proceed with further development phases depending on reservoir productivity,” said Tanya Pang, KrisEnergy’s spokeswoman.
Even if the sector does expand significantly, Cambodia remains an oil minnow. The biggest producers - the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia - all produce more than ten million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
Even neighbouring Thailand pumps more than half a million barrels.
“Absolutely, there may be more. But even if you were to double it, it’s still not going to be transformational to the Cambodian economy,” said Stephen Higgins, from the Phnom Penh-based corporate advisory firm Mekong Partners.
Early estimates suggested that the oil field could be very significant. An official at Chevron, which sold its stake to KrisEnergy, suggested that the site could have up to 700 million barrels.
Later estimates suggested the field was far more modest, with around 30 million barrels. KrisEnergy has put the amount of recoverable oil at less than 10 million barrels.
Resources curse
Cambodia is likely to see a modest bump to its revenues from the project. Between royalties and taxes, the government will make around $500m from the project.
That number is small compared to the revenues its neighbours collect. Malaysia’s state oil company Petronas typically supplies about a fifth of government revenues. Tiny East Timor uses the interest from an $18bn petroleum fund to provide around 88% of government revenues.
