据全球能源新闻网1月30日报道，据雷斯塔能源的一项分析显示，美国在疫情最严重时累积的钻探但未完井(DUC)数量已降至疫情前的水平。在2020年6月达到6548口的多年高点后，到2020年12月底，该国主要油区的这类油井数量减少到约5700口。
实时DUC的库存量（不包括很久以前钻探的废弃井）在同一时期也减少了约800口，从去年6月的4,353口下降到12月的3,528口。当前水平石油实时DUC数量与2020年初市场低迷开始之前的水平相当。
雷斯塔能源公司页岩研究负责人阿特姆·阿布拉莫夫（ Artem Abramov）表示，鉴于近期油价的回升，该行业将在今年上半年进一步加速压裂活动，超越当前水平。从目前“实时”的DUC库存与水力压裂运行速度的比率可以看出，这种加速可能会实现。水力压裂运行速度仍在6-8个月的范围内，而2018-2019年的正常水平约为3个月。
截至2021年1月21日，我们确定了2020年12月在北美开展了626次压裂作业，我们预计当月基于事实的报道将基本完成。 我们预计，到2021年1月，将有830口水力压裂井，这是2020年3月新冠疫情引发的低迷开始以来的最高月总数。
追溯到DUC，几乎所有的主要油区在2020年都遵循了全国的趋势，首先在去年第二季度出现了不寻常的库存积累，然后在下半年逐渐减少。截至2020年12月，二叠纪盆地占水平“实时”石油DUC累积量的55％左右，约为1,900口，并且与该盆地的实时DUC相比，它在下半年的总产量中占相当的份额。 2020年6月达到2400口井的峰值。
鉴于当前的资本纪律环境和专注于自由现金流，Rystad预计该行业将在今年上半年很大程度上坚持其原有的压裂程序，但可能会分配一些额外的资本支出，以更大幅度地增加钻机数量 。这将导致压裂活动从下半年开始上升，并且假设WTI保持在50美元/桶以上，到年底，维护计划的某些偏差将会出现。
郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网
原文如下：
US UNCOMPLETED SHALE WELLS AT PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS AND AWAIT FOR FRACKING
The number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUC) that accumulated at the height of the pandemic has already subsided to pre-Covid-19 levels in the US, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. After swelling to a multi-year high of 6,548 wells in June 2020, the number of such wells in the country’s major oil regions slimmed down to around 5,700 wells by the end of December 2020.
The inventory of live DUCs, which excludes tentatively abandoned wells drilled a long time ago, also declined by around 800 wells in the same period, from 4,353 in June to 3,528 in December. The current level of horizontal oil live DUC count is comparable to the level seen in early 2020, just before the market downturn started.
“Given the recent recovery in oil prices, the industry is enjoying the flexibility of further accelerating fracking activity beyond current levels in the first half of the year. Such an acceleration could be delivered, as can be implied from the ratio of the current ‘live’ DUC inventory to the run rate of fracking, which is still in the six-to-eight-month range, compared to the normal level of about three months seen in 2018-2019,” says Artem Abramov, Head of Shale Research at Rystad Energy.
As of 21 January 2021, we identified 626 started frac operations in North America for December 2020 and we expect the month’s fact-based coverage to be almost complete. For January 2021, we project that there will be 830 wells fracked, the highest monthly total after March 2020, when the Covid-19 induced downturn began.
Back to DUCs, nearly all major oil regions followed the national trend in 2020, first exhibiting an unusual inventory build-up in the second quarter and then moving toward a gradual depletion in the second half of the year. The Permian Basin accounted for around 55% of the total horizontal ‘live’ oil DUC inventory as of December 2020, at around 1,900, and it accounted for a comparable share of the drawdown through the second half of the year, as the basin’s live DUCs peaked at 2,400 wells in June 2020.“
Given the current environment of capital discipline and focus on free cash flow generation, Rystad expects the industry to largely stick with its original fracking programs in the first half of the year, but probably allocate some additional capex to a more significant increase in the rig count. This will result in an upside in frac activity from the second half of the year, and certain deviations from the maintenance program will be visible toward the end of the year, assuming that WTI holds above the $50 per barrel mark.
