据3月3日Business Wire报道，全球石油和天然气市场预计将从2020年的46774.5亿美元增长到2021年的58701.3亿美元，复合年增长率为25.5%。
增长主要是由于石油公司重新安排了业务，并渐渐从新冠肺炎疫情的影响中恢复过来。此前，疫情导致了限制性的遏制措施实施，包括社交距离、远程工作和商业活动等方面，从而给运营带来了挑战。预计到2025年，市场规模将达到74250.2亿美元，复合年增长率为6%。
石油和天然气由从事石油和天然气及其衍生产品的勘探、开采、钻探和精炼的实体(组织、个体贸易商或合伙企业)销售。这个市场不包括石化产品。石油和天然气市场分为石油和天然气上游活动和石油下游产品。
亚太地区是全球最大的油气市场，2020年占全球油气市场的33%。北美是第二大地区，占全球油气市场的19%。南美洲是全球石油和天然气市场上最小的地区。
石油和天然气行业的大公司正在研究大数据分析和人工智能(AI)，以提高决策能力，从而提高利润。该行业的公司通过放置在钻井平台上的大量传感器收集与炼油厂、管道和其他基础设施相关的大量原始数据。通过使用大数据分析，可以探索出一些模式，能够对不必要的变化或潜在的缺陷做出快速反应，从而节省成本。人工智能可以帮助更好地进行钻井和运营决策。
埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)和壳牌(Shell)等公司一直在加大对人工智能技术的投资，以拥有集中的数据管理方法，并支持跨多个应用程序的数据集成。
油价波动可能会对市场产生负面影响，因为油价的大幅下跌和上涨会对政府和消费者支出产生负面影响。油价下跌对沙特阿拉伯、尼日利亚和阿联酋等主要依赖原油出口收入的国家的政府支出产生了负面影响；石油价格的大幅度上涨导致了通货膨胀加剧，印度等主要石油进口国将会面临经常账户赤字和财政赤字。
由于石油出口收入大幅下降，沙特政府预计将削减支出，从2019年的1.05万亿里亚尔(2800亿美元)削减到2020年的1.02万亿里亚尔(2700亿美元)，到2022年削减到9550亿里亚尔(2550亿美元)，从而影响市场。油价的高波动性预计将对市场的未来产生负面影响。
从历史上看，大多数发达国家的低利率对油气行业产生了积极的影响。例如，2019年，欧洲央行(ecb)将银行存款利率降至-0.5%，以鼓励放贷。
这为投资创造了廉价资金流，无论是在发达国家还是发展中国家。鼓励发达市场的借贷，抑制储蓄，帮助推动支出。石油和天然气公司能够借到更多的钱来进行工艺改进和扩建项目，从而推动了这一时期的市场。
王佳晶 摘译自 Business Wire
原文如下：
Global Oil and Gas Market Report 2021: COVID-19 Impact and Recovery - Forecast to 2025 & 2030
The global oil and gas market is expected to grow from $4677.45 billion in 2020 to $5870.13 billion in 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.5%.
The growth is mainly due to the companies rearranging their operations and recovering from the COVID-19 impact, which had earlier led to restrictive containment measures involving social distancing, remote working, and the closure of commercial activities that resulted in operational challenges. The market is expected to reach $7425.02 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 6%.
The oil and gas market consists of sales of oil and gas by entities (organizations, sole traders or partnerships) that undertake the exploration for, extraction, drilling, and refining, of oil and gas and some of its derivatives. This market does not include petrochemicals. The oil and gas market is segmented into oil & gas upstream activities and oil downstream products.
Asia Pacific was the largest region in the global oil and gas market, accounting for 33% of the market in 2020. North America was the second largest region accounting for 19% of the global oil and gas market. South America was the smallest region in the global oil and gas market.
Major companies in the oil and gas industry are looking into big data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance decisions making abilities and thus drive profits. The companies in this industry gather huge amounts of raw data relating to the working of refineries, pipelines and other infrastructure through a large number of sensors placed across the oil rig. Using big data analytics the companies can detect patterns which can allow them to quickly react to unwanted changes or potential defects, thus saving costs. AI allows the companies to take better drilling and operational decisions.
Companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell have been increasingly investing in AI technology to have a centralized method of data management and support data integration across multiple applications. Other companies such as Sinopec, a Chinese chemical and petroleum corporation, has announced its decision to construct 10 intelligent centers to help in reducing operation costs by 20%.
Oil price volatility is likely to have a negative impact on the market as significant decline and increase in oil prices negatively impacts the government and consumer spending. The decline in oil prices is having a negative impact on government spending in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) which are largely dependent on revenues generated through crude oil exports; whereas significant increase in oil prices had resulted in rising inflation, current account deficit and fiscal deficit in countries such as India and China, which predominantly import oil.
For instance, the Saudi government is expected to cut down its spending from 1.05 trillion riyals ($280 billion) in 2019 to 1.02 trillion riyals ($270 billion) in 2020, to 955 billion riyals ($255 billion) by 2022, due to significant decline in revenues generated from oil exports, thereby affecting the market. This high volatility in oil prices is expected to negatively impact the market going forward.
Low interest rates in most developed countries positively impacted the oil and gas industry during the historic period. For instance, in 2019, the European Central Bank decreased interest rates to -0.5% on deposits from banks to encourage lending.
This created a flow of cheap money for investment, both in developed and developing economies. It also encouraged borrowing and discouraged saving in advanced markets, helping to drive spending. Oil and gas companies were able to borrow more money for process improvements and expansion projects, thus driving the market during this period.
