据3月4日Rigzone消息：惠誉国家风险与产业研究公司分析师宣布，他们本月“大幅上调”了对油价的预测。
有报告称，分析师预测布伦特原油在2021年和2022年的平均价格分别为每桶64美元和63美元。高于此前预测的58美元和56美元。
展望未来，分析师们预计，2023年布伦特原油平均价格将达到每桶67美元，2024年达到70美元，2025年达到72美元。而彭博共识预测，布伦特原油今年的平均价格将为每桶56美元，2022年为58.2美元，2023年为60美元，2024年为62.3美元，2025年为62美元。
惠誉解决方案分析师在报告中表示：“布伦特原油2月份上涨约20％，反映出基本面趋紧和市场情绪活跃。”
“在一定程度上，向上修正是为了反映今年迄今未曾预料到的强劲势头。也反映了我们对疫情后复苏日益乐观的预期。”
“假设疫苗接种工作按计划进行，经济活动和人口流动基本恢复正常，政府继续支持这一进程，GDP增长和石油需求在未来几个季度应该会加快复苏。”分析人士接着表示。
“这反过来将收紧石油市场，并推动全球库存加速下降。此外，我们预计通货再膨胀贸易将成为2021年市场的关键主题，从而使大宗商品受益。”
在供应方面，惠誉解决方案分析师将欧佩克+的行动视为定价的“关键因素”。鉴于目前的价格走势，他们预计欧佩克将在3月4日的下次会议上选择4月份每日增产50万桶，而沙特阿拉伯将结束其自愿减产。
分析师在报告中表示:“月度调整的过程赋予了该集团更大的灵活性，以适应供应的增加和需求的复苏。”
“这使他们有机会在市场条件允许的情况下，在下半年恢复更多销量。”加速解除交易可能会导致价格下跌。然而，分析师补充称:“假设这一转变已经有了很好的迹象，并且该集团保持了再次上调降息的选择，如果基本面恶化，这种行动可能会限制布伦特原油上涨，而不是引发市场反弹。”
“鉴于我们认为疫情后的复苏将在今年开始，而且根据目前的交易情况，该集团计划在2021年每天增产200万桶，到2022年4月每天还将增加570万桶。 ”
冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
Analysts Significantly Bump Oil Price Forecast
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research (Fitch Solutions) have announced that they have made a “significant upward revision” to their oil price forecast this month.
In an oil price outlook report sent to Rigzone this week, the analysts forecasted that Brent would average $64 per barrel and $63 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This was up from a previous forecast of $58 per barrel and $56 per barrel for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Looking further ahead, the analysts project that Brent will average $67 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, forecasts that Brent will average $56 per barrel this year, $58.2 per barrel in 2022, $60 per barrel in 2023, $62.3 per barrel in 2024, and $62 per barrel in 2025.
“Brent rallied around 20 percent in February, reflecting tighter fundamentals and ebullient market sentiment,” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report.
“In part, the upward revision was made to reflect unanticipated strength in the year to date. It also captures our increasingly bullish expectations the post-pandemic recovery,” the analysts added.
“Assuming that vaccinations progress as planned, that economic activity and population mobility are allowed to broadly normalize, and that governments continue to support that process, GDP growth and demand for oil should pick up pace over the coming quarters,” the analysts went on to state.
“This in turn would tighten the oil market and drive an accelerated drawdown in global inventories. In addition, we expect the reflation trade to take root as the key theme for markets in 2021, to the benefit of commodities,” the analysts continued.
On the supply side, the Fitch Solutions analysts flagged action by OPEC+ as “the key factor” in setting prices. “In light of current price movements”, the analysts said their expectation is that the group will opt for a 500,000 barrel per day increase in output for April at the next meeting on March 4, while Saudi Arabia will end its voluntary cut.
“The process of monthly adjustments has granted the group greater flexibility to match the increase in its supply with the recovery in demand,” the analysts stated in the report.
“This gives them scope to return additional volumes in the second half of the year, market conditions permitting. An accelerated unwinding of the deal could risk upsetting prices. However, assuming that the shift is well signposted and that the group maintains the option to re-increase its cut, should the fundamentals deteriorate, it is likely that such action would serve to cap the gains in Brent, rather than to trigger a relapse in the market,” the analysts added.
“Frontloading the return of these barrels would be advisable in our view, given that the bulk of the post-pandemic recovery will accrue this year and that, as the deal currently stands, the group plans to return only two million barrels per day in 2021 and a further 5.7 million barrels per day by April 2022,” the analysts continued.
