据3月3日Neftegaz.RU消息：牛津商业集团的一项分析显示，持续减产和经济活动增加的结合，已促使油价回到疫情前水平，这一因素对中东和非洲主要产油国的复苏至关重要。
2月初，布伦特原油价格升至每桶60美元以上，首次超过疫情前价格。此后油价继续上涨，2月24日突破每桶66美元。
油价自去年11月以来上涨了75%，自今年年初以来上涨了约26%，这标志着与去年相比发生了巨大变化。
在2020年初沙特-俄罗斯价格战之后，随着供应增加和需求暴跌，布伦特原油价格从当年2月的每桶60美元左右降至4月下旬的每桶20美元，为20年来的低点。
尽管全球石油需求仍处于低位，但推动这一趋势逆转的一个因素是各国决定大幅削减石油产量，随后导致全球供应紧张。
今年8月，由23个国家组成的欧佩克+决定将产量削减至770万桶/天，并在12月初宣布，自2021年1月起将增加50万桶/天的产量。
由于担心最近的决定可能导致市场石油供应过剩，沙特阿拉伯宣布，将在1月至3月底期间每日再削减100万桶石油供应。
另一个被认为支撑油价上涨的因素是经济前景的改善。
随着各种新冠肺炎疫苗在全球推广，人们希望2021年全球在旅游和消费方面将恢复到正常水平，这将进一步刺激需求。
在2月中旬发布的年度展望中，欧佩克预测，与2020年的水平相比，全年石油需求将增加580万桶/天，部分原因是全球经济环境改善和世界各国政府的重大刺激措施。
至于未来的油价，国际货币基金组织在1月下旬预测，今年平均油价将为每桶50美元，高于2020年每桶41.30美元的平均水平。
然而，今年前2个月的持续上涨导致了一些更加乐观的预测:
荷兰跨国银行荷兰国际集团(ING)预测，油价每年平均为65美元/桶。
投资银行高盛预测，布伦特原油价格今年第三季度将升至每桶75美元，比此前的预期高出10美元。
冯娟 摘译自 Neftegaz.RU
原文如下：
Middle East producers are desperate for higher oil prices
According to an analysis by the Oxford Business Group, a combination of continued production cuts and an increase in economic activity has prompted oil prices to return to pre-pandemic levels – a factor that will be crucial to the recovery of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East and Africa.
Brent crude prices rose above $60 a barrel in early February, the 1st time they had exceeded pre-Covid-19 values.
They have since continued to rise, going above $66 a barrel on February 24.
This increase in oil prices, which soared by 75% from November and by around 26% since the beginning of the year, marks a dramatic change from last year.
In the wake of the Saudi-Russia price war in early 2020, Brent crude prices fell from around $60 a barrel in February that year to 2-decade lows of $20 a barrel in late April, as supply increased and demand plummeted.
While global demand for oil remains low, one factor credited with reversing the trend is the decision to make significant cuts to oil production, which subsequently tightened global supplies.
The 23-nation group, known as OPEC+, decided to scale back the cuts to 7.7m bpd in August, before announcing in early December that they would increase production by 500,000 bpd as of January 2021.
Concerned that the most recent decision could have led to excess oil in the market, Saudi Arabia announced that it would cut an additional 1m barrels daily between January and the end of March.
Another factor seen to be supporting the increase in oil prices is the improving economic outlook.
With the global rollout of various Covid-19 vaccines, it is hoped that the world will return to a degree of normality in 2021 in terms of travel and consumption, an outcome that would further spur demand.
In an annual outlook released in mid-February, OPEC forecast full-year oil demand to increase by 5.8m bpd compared to 2020 levels, driven partly by an improving global economic climate and significant stimulus measures from governments around the world.
As for the value of oil moving forward, in late January, the IMF forecast oil prices would average $50 a barrel this year, above the 2020 average of $41.30.
However, the continued rise of prices over the 1st 2 months of the year has led to some more bullish estimates:
with Dutch multinational banking firm ING predicting average annual prices of $65 per barrel
while investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast Brent prices will rise as high as $75 a barrel in the Q3 of the year, $10 higher than earlier estimates
