据3月3日Oil Now报道，欧佩克秘书长和专家们表示，由于去年的不确定性有所缓解，该组织认为石油市场前景总体上是积极的，但疫情引发的下行风险仍在持续。
欧佩克主席穆罕默德·巴尔金多(Mohammad Barkindo)说表示：“与一年前相比，我们已经取得了长足的进步，。GDP和石油需求数据因疫情引发的冲击而出现赤字的日子似乎已经一去不复返了。”
周四，欧佩克+部长们将举行一次全体会议。市场普遍预期，随着欧佩克领导人沙特阿拉伯结束其自愿额外减产100万桶/天的决定，他们将缓解有史以来最严重的减产，增产幅度约为150万桶/天。
然而，路透社看到JTC的一份文件显示，市场应该保持谨慎的乐观情绪，因为现货市场和宏观情绪存在潜在不确定性，包括疫情突变的风险。最近油价的上涨可能更多是由金融参与者引起的，而不是石油现货市场基本面的改善。
巴尔金多表示，欧佩克预计2021年石油需求将增长580万桶/天，至约9600万桶/天。相比之下，2019年的日产量约为1亿桶，而2020年由于疫情的影响，需求大幅下降。令人鼓舞的全球经济发展和亚洲的弹性需求是上行因素，而疫情的下行风险意味是市场仍保持谨慎乐观情绪的理由。
他补充说:“许多国家在新冠肺炎疫苗接种方面继续取得进展，但目前的速度表明，许多发展中国家存在被落后风险。”
王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下：
OPEC sees positive oil market outlook
OPEC sees a generally positive oil market outlook with last year’s uncertainty easing, but downside risks caused by the pandemic persist, the group’s secretary general and its experts said on Tuesday.
“We have come a long way from a year ago,” OPEC chief Mohammad Barkindo said. “The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us.”
Barkindo was speaking before Tuesday’s meeting of the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which reviews the oil market for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies, a group know as OPEC+.
OPEC+ ministers hold a full meeting on Thursday.
The market widely expects them to ease their production cuts, which were the deepest ever, by around 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), with OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, ending its voluntary production cut of 1 million bpd.
However, a JTC document, which was seen by Reuters, called “for cautious optimism,” citing “the underlying uncertainties in the physical markets and macro sentiment, including risks from COVID-19 mutations that are still on the rise”.
It also said it believed a recent oil price rally might have been caused more by financial players rather than improvements in physical oil market fundamentals.
Barkindo said OPEC expected oil demand in 2021 to grow by 5.8 million bpd to about 96 million bpd. That compares with about 100 million bpd in 2019, before demand plummeted in 2020 due to the pandemic.
“The encouraging global economic developments and resilient demand in Asia are upside factors,” he said, although he noted that the downside risks of the continuing pandemic meant there was cause to only be cautiously optimistic.
“Progress on COVID-19 vaccinations continues in many countries, but the current pace shows that many developing countries risk being left behind,” he added.
