据今日油价3月4日报道，疫情、2020年原油价格暴跌和持续的全球石油供应过剩几乎没有减缓南美大规模近海石油繁荣的蓬勃势头。圭亚那兴起了巨大的石油热潮，而苏里南也在处在发展的关键时刻，该地区最大的经济体巴西现在是世界第十大石油生产国。正是这些国家蓬勃发展的近海石油工业，将使南美成为世界领先的近海石油生产地区，甚至超过北美。尽管疫情和2020年油价暴跌，巴西的近海石油行业仍经历了强劲增长。年均油气产量同比增长5%。正是巴西的盐下油田和巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)将重点放在开发超深水油田上，才促成了这种健康增长。盐下石油产量飙升了近18%，达到260万桶/天，占巴西总产量的69%。巴西国家石油公司公布了迄今为止最好的经营业绩，包括创纪录的出口，该公司日均石油产量达228万桶。2021年1月，巴西国家石油公司通过其Angra dos Reis终端的出口量达到了1930万桶的新高。
巴西盐下油区极具吸引力的经济型资产将推动更大的投资和产量增长。在布伦特原油平均价格预计在60 - 70美元/桶的情况下，有许多资产都在以35美元/桶甚至更低的盈亏价格开采低硫中质原油，这使它们获得了很高的利润。
巴西国家石油公司已承诺在2021年至2025年期间投资550亿美元，其中84.5%(465亿美元)将用于勘探和生产活动，2021年用于勘探和生产的资金为81亿美元。该公司计划将其5年465亿美元的勘探开发预算的70%(即325亿美元)用于其盐下油田，其中130亿美元用于坎波斯盆地，117亿美元用于桑托斯盆地的Buzios油田。即使出售了相当一部分浅水和非核心资产，到2025年，巴西石油的平均日产量仍将达到230万桶，比2020年增加3%。由于有利的经济条件，外国能源巨头也在与巴西国家石油公司一起投资巴西的盐下油田。行业咨询公司Rystad Energy预计，在中长期内，巴西的原油产量将达到平均每天350万桶以上。
不仅是巴西的石油工业吸引了大量投资，并推动了该地区的油气产量。圭亚那也正在经历自己的石油繁荣，估计盈亏平衡的价格在每桶23美元到35美元之间，这使得这个该国受到了能源投资者的重点关注。自2015年初以来，全球石油巨头埃克森美孚在圭亚那近海发现了18处石油，估计其可采原油资源超过80亿桶。尽管埃克森在2020年11月和2021年1月分别在Kaieteur和Stabroek区块钻了两口干井，但该公司仍在继续推进其在圭亚那近海的勘探计划。这家石油巨头上个月在Canje区块开探了bullet - wood-1井，该井可能储存超过5亿桶石油当量。Canje与多产的Stabroek区块和苏里南近海58区块接壤，Apache和道达尔自2020年1月以来在这里获得了4个发现，而运营商Kosmos计划在2021年在42个区块开发一口探井。埃克森的Payara开发项目在2020年获得批准，Liza 2在Stabroek区块启动，到2026年，这家石油巨头的日产量将达到至少75万桶。
苏里南的国有石油公司和油气监管机构statatsolie预计，到2025年，该国将在近海生产原油。根据行业咨询公司GlobalData的数据，位于苏里南近海58区块的Maka Central-1油田是阿帕奇公司在圭亚那-苏里南盆地首次发现的油田，该油田的原油储量至少为3亿桶。有分析师和业内人士猜测，该油田可能比埃克森美孚位于Stabroek区块的Liza油藏更大，后者拥有8亿多桶原油。Apache预计将在2025年左右从58区块开采原油。
虽然巴西、圭亚那和苏里南是南美洲主要的近海钻井管辖区，但邻近的哥伦比亚也希望加入竞争。自2020年疫情封锁结束以来，这个安第斯国家一直在努力启动其油气行业。哥伦比亚为促进经济增长和关键的油气储量而采取的举措之一是在2020年实施近海石油工业的新框架。能源部声称已经为哥伦比亚的近海石油和天然气项目获得了16亿美元的投资。这不仅会增加这个安第斯山脉国家的石油和天然气储量，还会推动产量的提高，特别是波哥大将重点放在吸引对经济至关重要的石油工业的进一步投资上。与圭亚那、苏里南和巴西一样，哥伦比亚近海油田的经济前景也很诱人，据自然资源管理研究所估计，其平均保本价格为每桶31.77美元。再加上波哥大有利的石油产业政策和政治稳定，哥伦比亚应该能够成功吸引国际能源公司的海外投资。
咨询公司IHS Markit的数据显示，自2012年以来，拉丁美洲近海发现的石油数量稳步上升，常规石油储量的发现主要集中在近海地区。出于这些原因， GlobalData在2020年11月发布的一份新闻稿中称，到2024年，南美的近海石油产量将超过北美的近海石油产量。Rystad预计，南美将引领疫情后的近海石油复苏，这主要是因为该地区的经济优势，从现在到2025年，巴西和圭亚那将获得超过三分之一的所有近海石油投资。因此，南美洲的近海油气产量将在未来几年飙升，并有可能成为世界上领先的近海钻井地区。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Is This The World’s Next Big Offshore Oil Region?
The COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 crude oil price crash and ongoing global petroleum supply glut have done little to slow the growth of South America’s massive offshore oil boom. The colossal oil boom underway in the tiny South American nation of Guyana is gaining momentum, while Suriname is on the cusp of experiencing its own and the region’s largest economy Brazil is now the world’s tenth largest oil producer. It is their booming offshore oil industries which will be responsible for South America becoming the world’s leading offshore petroleum producing regions, even surpassing North America. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and 2020 oil price crash, Brazil’s offshore oil industry experienced strong growth. Annual average hydrocarbon output grew 5% year over year to barrels of oil equivalent daily. It was Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields and national oil company Petrobras’ focus on developing those ultra-deep-water fields which was responsible for that healthy growth. Pre-salt oil output soared by almost 18% to 2.6 million barrels daily to make up 69% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon output. Petrobras announced its best-yet operational results, including record exports and annual average oil production of 2.28 million barrels per day. For January 2021, Brazil’s national oil company’s exports reached a new peak of 19.3 million barrels through its Angra dos Reis terminal.
It is the attractive economics of Brazil’s pre-salt oil region which will drive greater investment and production growth. Many of those assets are pumping sweet medium grade crude oil at a breakeven price of $35 per barrel or even less, making them highly profitable in an operating environment where Brent is expected to average $60 to $70 per barrel.
Petrobras has committed to investing $55 billion between 2021 and 2025 of which 84.5% or $46.5 billion will be directed to exploration and production activities with $8.1 billion being spent on E&P in 2021. The national oil company plans to spend 70% of its five-year $46.5 billion E&P budget, which is $33.5 billion, on its pre-salt oilfields with $13 billion earmarked for the Campos Basin and $11.7 billion on the Buzios oilfield in the Santos Basin. Even after selling a significant portion of its shallow water and non-core assets Petrobras’ oil production will average 2.3 million barrels daily by 2025, which is 3% greater than 2020. Foreign energy majors are also investing in Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields alongside Petrobras because of the favorable economics. Industry consultancy Rystad Energy predicted Brazil’s crude oil output will reach an average of over 3.5 million barrels daily over the medium to long-term.
It is not only Brazil’s petroleum industry which is attracting considerable investment and driving higher regional hydrocarbon production. Offshore Guyana is experiencing its own major oil boom with particularly low estimated breakeven prices of anywhere between $23 to $35 per barrel boosting the attention the former British colony is receiving from energy investors. Global oil supermajor Exxon has made 18 oil discoveries in offshore Guyana since the start of 2015 and estimates that it has over eight billion barrels of recoverable crude oil resources. Despite drilling two dry wells during November 2020 and January 2021 in the Kaieteur and Stabroek blocks, Exxon is pressing ahead with its exploration plan in offshore Guyana. The oil supermajor, last month, spudded the Bulletwood-1 well in the Canje Block which could hold more than 500 million barrels of oil equivalent. Canje borders the prolific Stabroek Block as well as offshore Suriname blocks 58, where Apache and Total have made four discoveries since January 2020 and 42 where operator Kosmos has planned an exploration well for 2021. The 2020 approval of Exxon’s Payara development and the start-up of Liza 2 in the Stabroek block will see the oil major pumping at least 750,000 barrels daily by 2026.
Suriname’s state-controlled oil company and hydrocarbon regulator Staatsolie expects the former Dutch colony to be producing crude oil offshore by 2025. According to industry consultancy GlobalData the Maka Central-1 field in Suriname offshore Block 58, Apache’s first discovery in the Guyana-Suriname Basin, holds at least 300 million barrels of crude oil. There is speculation from analysts and industry insiders that the oilfield could be even larger than Exxon’s Liza reservoir in the Stabroek block which holds over 800 million barrels of crude oil. Apache expects to be pumping crude oil from Block 58 by around 2025.
While Brazil, Guyana and Suriname are the leading offshore drilling jurisdictions in South America, nearby Colombia is hoping to join the fray. The Andean country is struggling to kickstart its hydrocarbon sector since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic lockdown ended. Part of Colombia’s initiatives to bolster economic growth along with crucial hydrocarbon reserves was to implement a new framework for its offshore petroleum industry during 2020. The energy ministry claims to have secured $1.6 billion of investment in offshore oil and natural gas projects for Colombia. That will not only bolster the Andean country’s oil and natural gas reserves but drive greater production, particularly with Bogota focused on attracting further investment in the economically crucial petroleum industry. Like Guyana, Suriname and Brazil, offshore Colombia offers attractive economics with the Natural Resource Governance Institute estimating an average breakeven price of $31.77 per barrel. When coupled with Bogota’s favorable petroleum industry policies and political stability, Colombia should successfully coax offshore investment from international energy companies.
The volume of offshore oil discoveries in Latin America has risen steadily since 2012, according to consultancy IHS Markit, to see the volume of conventional oil reserve discoveries being made predominantly offshore. For these reasons, industry consultancy GlobalData, in a November 2020 media release, claimed South America’s offshore oil production will overtake North America’s offshore oil output by 2024. Rystad expects South America to lead the post-pandemic recovery of offshore, primarily because of the region’s advantageous economics with Brazil and Guyana earmarked to receive over a third of all offshore oil investment between now and 2025. For these reasons South America’s offshore hydrocarbon output will soar over the coming years, seeing it potentially become the world’s leading offshore drilling region.
