据3月3日FX Empire报道，埃克森美孚将于周三美国股市开盘前举行2021年投资者日活动，随后，欧佩克+将宣布其产量决定。
这些关键事件是全球石油行业前景的关键晴雨表。在这些关键事件发生之前，埃克森美孚的股价一直在上涨，到2021年为止上涨了36%。在1月中旬形成技术上的“黄金交叉”后，该股自去年11月以来的上行趋势依然坚挺。然而，由于其14天相对强弱指数(RSI)接近超买区域，该股一旦达到70的临界点，就很容易下挫。
埃克森美孚投资者日的主要考虑因素为，当埃克森美孚在2020年举行投资日时，世界还没有完全掌握疫情造成的破坏程度。现在，大约12个月过去了，随着油价惊人的反弹，投资者将急切地想知道埃克森美孚打算如何进军后疫情时代市场的更多细节。
一是，投资策略。
为了利用油价复苏的机会而增加资本支出，也可能危及埃克森美孚每年150亿美元的巨额股息承诺。该公司最近表示，其现金流足以满足布伦特原油50美元/桶的股息承诺。
然而，市场将注意到埃克森美孚2月2日发布的最新财报。该公司宣布，自1999年合并形成美国最大石油公司以来，2020年首次出现年度净亏损，也是大约40年来首次出现年度净亏损。在大型石油公司被遗忘了一年之后，投资者想知道埃克森美孚是否能在强化资产负债表和利用未来机遇所需支出之间取得微妙的平衡，同时还要努力安抚渴望派息的股东。
二是，碳排放。
埃克森美孚的欧洲竞争对手，如英国石油公司(BP)、荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)和道达尔(Total)，已经开始着手控制石油产量，并在2050年前大幅降低碳排放。相比之下，埃克森美孚显然不愿效仿竞争对手的环保议程，因此受到了强烈批评。
埃克森将在多大程度上实现净零目标，还有待观察。有鉴于此，埃克森美孚在本周任命了维权投资者杰夫?乌本(Jeff Ubben)进入董事会，以使该公司更注重环保，同时成立一个新的业务部门，专注于低碳排放技术。
不过，要安抚Engine 1等维权投资者，埃克森美孚可能还需要付出更多。要知道，Engine 1持有超过4亿美元的埃克森股票。
尽管埃克森美孚的投资者日有许多可能撼动其股价的事态发展，但大型石油股可能会在第二天迎来更大的波动。
三是，欧佩克+供应决定迫在眉睫。
周四，欧佩克+将决定其23个成员国4月的产量水平，下月全球市场可能恢复至多150万桶/天的产量。这150万桶包括沙特阿拉伯在2月和3月自愿额外削减的100万桶/天的产量。
市场已经预计，欧佩克将增加至少50万桶/天的原油供应，因此，在考虑欧佩克+供应限制措施放松的前景时，油价在最近几个交易日出现下跌。如果有消息证实，从下个月开始，全球市场将重新涌入150万桶/天的石油，甚至可能将布伦特原油价格再次拉回到每桶60美元以下的水平，并令今年迄今为止21%的涨幅减少。
需要澄清的是，这并不是说油价会在本周回落。全球需求复苏似乎足够强劲，足以在4月份吸收更多的石油供应。然而，本周将由欧佩克+决定的是供应方面的因素，这可能会决定布兰特原油价格是否会在会后立即突破60美元/桶。
欧佩克+的决定不仅会影响布伦特和西德克萨斯中质原油价格，未来几天还可能影响石油公司的股价。鉴于投资者在未来几天有很多东西需要消化，这两件事可能会决定与石油相关的资产在短期内的表现。
王佳晶 摘译自 FX Empire
原文如下：
Big Week for Big Oil
Exxon Mobil is set to hold its 2021 Investor Day before US markets open on Wednesday, a day before OPEC+ announces its output decision.
In the lead up to these key events, which serve as key barometers for the global oil industry’s outlook, Exxon Mobil’s share prices have been on a tear, surging 36% so far in 2021. Having formed a technical “golden cross” in mid-January, the stock’s uptrend since November remains firmly intact. However, with its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) flirting with overbought territory, this stock has been prone to dip once that 70 threshold is reached.
Key considerations for Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day
When Exxon held its investor day in 2020, the world had yet to fully realize the full extent of the damage wrought by Covid-19. Now, some 12 months later and with the astonishing recovery in oil prices since, investors will be eager for more details on how Exxon intends to forge ahead into the post-pandemic era:Investment strategy
Greater capital expenditure, with the aim of taking advantage of the oil price recovery, could also threaten Exxon’s massive pledge of $15 billion in annual dividends. The company stated recently that its cashflow would be enough to meet its dividend commitment at $50 Brent.
Yet, markets will be cognizant of Exxon’s latest earnings announcement on 2 February, declaring its first annual net loss since its 1999 merger that created the largest US oil company, also its first annual net loss in about 40 years. In the aftermath of a year to forget for Big Oil, investors want to know whether Exxon can get that tricky balance right between strengthening its balance sheet and the spending required to take advantage of future opportunities, all while trying to appease dividend-hungry shareholders.
Carbon emissions
Exxon’s European rivals, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, are already making the shift to curb oil and drastically lower their carbon emissions by 2050. In contrast, Exxon has been loudly criticized over their apparent reluctance to match their rivals’ adoption of the green agenda.
It remains to be seen how much Exxon will warm up (no pun intended) to a net-zero carbon goal. With that in mind, Exxon appointed activist investor Jeff Ubben to its board just this week to give Exxon a more environmentally-friendly tilt while also setting up a new business unit to focus on low-emission technologies.
Still, much more is likely required out of Exxon in order to appease activist investors such as Engine No.1, which holds over $400 million in Exxon shares.
While Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day holds plenty of potential developments to rock its share prices, more volatility could be in store for Big Oil stocks the day after.
OPEC+ supply decision looms
On Thursday, OPEC+ is set to decide on the output levels for its 23 members for April, and could restore as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back into global markets next month. That 1.5 million figure includes Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts of 1 million bpd that had been implemented throughout February and March.
Markets are already expecting the alliance to ease at least 500,000 bpd back into the world, hence the declines in oil benchmarks in recent sessions as they ponder the prospects of OPEC+ taps being loosened. Confirmation that a full 1.5 million bpd being flooded back into global markets starting next month could even drag Brent back to sub-$60 levels once more, and pare down its 21% in year-to-date gains.
To be clear, this isn’t to suggest we could see oil prices capitulate this week. The global demand recovery appears robust enough to absorb more incoming barrels of oil in April. However, it’s the supply side of the equation as will be determined by OPEC+ this week that could determine whether Brent above $60/bbl is warranted in the immediate aftermath.
The decision by OPEC+ wouldn’t just impact Brent and WTI crude prices, but is also likely to feed into the stock prices of oil companies over the coming days. With investors having plenty to digest over the next couple of days, this pair of events could dictate how oil-linked assets perform over the immediate term.
