据钻机地带3月3日报道，挪威能源咨询公司雷斯塔的最新分析表明，欧佩克+ 4月份可能会将产量提高130万桶/天，保持市场平衡。
据雷斯塔德石油市场负责人Bjornar Tonhaugen周二在一份发给Rigzone的声明中表示:“我们还预计，沙特阿拉伯将逐步恢复其额外的每天100万桶的减产，这并非协议的正式内容。”
他补充称:“到2021年晚些时候，沙特阿拉伯可能会在年底前略微削减产量。”
在声明中，Tonhaugen指出，目前的油价水平“非常健康”，已经引发了横跨大西洋的美洲石油生产活动的增加。
他表示:“欧佩克+当然不想错过，许多石油盟国认为，现在是他们享受克制得来的果实、提高石油产量的时候了。”
雷斯塔的代表预测，如果欧佩克+决定将产量提高50万桶/天，即使价格将反映这一发展趋势，其影响也将是“微不足道的”。
“然而，欧佩克+的更大规模增产可能引发油价进一步下跌。然而，由于油价已经超过了60美元，这并不是一个真正可怕的打击。只要油价超过50美元，不低于60美元的门槛，那么盈利能力仍然存在。”
在仔细观察沙特阿拉伯额外的每日减产100万桶后，Tonhaugen警告称，即使欧佩克+决定从4月起适度增产，如果沙特阿拉伯恢复额外的100万桶，影响将是“相当大的”。
他表示:“两个月前，沙特出人意料地宣布取消石油生产，使得油价上涨了几美元。若这一政策又忽然发生变化，那么上涨的油价也会受到影响。”
Tonhaugen继续表示:“如此大规模的意外政策变化带来了市场大规模反应的风险，因此在即将到来的欧佩克+会议中，沙特的决定可能比集团政策更加重要。”
欧佩克+计划于3月4日通过视频会议举行会议。欧佩克+在1月份的上次会议上承认，有必要逐步向市场恢复200万桶/日的产量，“速度将根据市场情况而定”。欧佩克＋还重申了上次会议的决定，即从2021年1月起，将日产量增加50万桶，将减产幅度从770万桶调整为720万桶。
裘寅 编译自 Rigzone
原文如下：
OPEC+ Could Add 1.3MM Bpd and Keep Market Balanced
Rystad Energy’s latest analysis indicates that OPEC+ could raise production by 1.3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in April and keep the market balanced.
“We also expect Saudi Arabia to gradually bring back its extra one million barrels per day in cuts, which are not officially part of the agreement,” Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone on Tuesday.
“Later in 2021, Saudi Arabia may slightly cut back on production volumes，” he added.
In the statement, Tonhaugen noted that current oil price levels are “more than healthy” and have already triggered increased oil production activity across the Atlantic in the Americas.
“OPEC+ reasonably will not want to miss out and not taste the cake it baked itself with hard work,” he said. “Many members of the alliance believe that it’s about time they enjoy the fruit of their restraint and raise oil output,” Tonhaugen added.
The Rystad representative predicted that, if OPEC+ decides to lift output by 500,000 bpd, even though prices will reflect the development, the effect will be “marginal”.
“A larger production boost by OPEC+ though could trigger a deeper decline in oil prices. However, since they are already topping $60, it won’t really be such a terrible blow. Profitability remains even below that threshold anyway, at above $50,” Tonhaugen stated.
Looking closer at Saudi Arabia’s extra million barrel per day cuts, Tonhaugen warned that, even if OPEC+ decides a modest output hike from April, if Saudi Arabia brings back those extra million barrels the impact will be “quite massive”.
“Oil prices rose by several dollars when the Saudis announced their surprise decision to remove that production two months ago and these extra dollars can be cut back if that soft pillow is suddenly lost,” he said.
“Unexpected policy changes of that magnitude entail the risk of large market reactions, so in the coming OPEC+ meeting the Saudi decision could weigh even more in importance than the group policy,” Tonhaugen continued.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet via videoconference on March 4. OPEC+’s last meeting in January acknowledged the need to gradually return two million bpd to the market, “with the pace being determined according to market conditions”. It also reconfirmed the decision made at the previous meeting to increase production by 500,000 bpd starting in January 2021 and adjusting the production reduction from 7.7 MMbpd to 7.2 MMbpd.?
