据路透社3月10日消息，美国能源信息署(EIA)周二在《短期能源展望》(STEO)中表示，2021年美国天然气产量将边际上升，而需求则连续第二年下降，因为冠状病毒封锁带来的经济后果继续困扰市场。
EIA预计，干气产量将从2020年的913.4亿立方英尺/天升至2021年的913.5亿立方英尺/天，2022年为928.3立方英尺/天。相比之下，2019年的历史最高值为930.6亿立方英尺/天。
它还预计天然气消费量将从2020年的832.5 亿立方英尺/天降至2021年的825.22亿立方英尺/天和2022年的816亿立方英尺/天。而2019年则为851.5亿立方英尺/天。
如果这一预测正确，2021年将是2006年以来消费量首次连续两年下降，2022年将是1983年以来首次连续三年下降。
EIA在3月份对2021年的预测高于其2月份预测的供应量905.0亿立方英尺/天和需求量817.1亿立方英尺/天。
该机构预测，2021年美国液化天然气出口量将达到82.9亿立方英尺/天，2022年将达到92.2亿立方英尺/天，高于2020年创纪录的65.3亿立方英尺/天。这低于其2月份预测的2021年84.6亿立方英尺。
尹路 编译自 路透社
原文如下：
U.S. natgas output to rise, while demand falls for second year in 2021
U.S. natural gas production will edge up in 2021, while demand declines for a second year in a row as economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continue to plague the market, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
The EIA projected dry gas production will rise to 91.35 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 and 92.83 bcfd in 2022 from 91.34 bcfd in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019.
It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.52 bcfd in 2021 and 81.60 bcfd in 2022 from 83.25 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019.
If the outlook is correct, 2021 would mark the first time consumption falls for two consecutive years since 2006, and 2022 would be the first time it falls for three years since 1983.
EIA’s projections for 2021 in March were higher than its February forecasts of 90.50 bcfd for supply and 81.71 bcfd for demand.
The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 8.29 bcfd in 2021 and 9.22 bcfd in 2022, up from a record 6.53 bcfd in 2020. That is lower than its February forecast of 8.46 bcfd in 2021.
The EIA projected U.S. coal production will rise to 581.2 million short tons in 2021 and 610.3 million short tons in 2022 from 539.1 million short tons in 2020, its lowest since 1965, as power plants burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices.
The EIA projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will rise to 4.843 billion tonnes in 2021 and 4.954 billion tonnes in 2022 as power generators burn more coal. That is up from 4.583 billion tonnes in 2020, which was the lowest since 1983.
