据今日油价3月9日报道，欧佩克+决定将目前的减产延期至3月底，这一决定令石油市场感到意外，因为这与该组织去年12月宣布的将油价推高至每桶60美元以上的计划不同。
上周原油价格上涨，收于每桶65-70美元区间。对全球经济复苏速度的担忧似乎是欧佩克+将产量增幅保持在最低水平的主要推动力之一。在欧佩克+会议召开的两周前，沙特能源部长已经表达了他对全球经济的持续担忧，他指出，在当前的油价下，石油生产国者们因保持谨慎。
另一个需要考虑的因素是，自去年5月以来，欧佩克已经有近500万桶/天的产量退出了市场。如果将任何一桶原油运回本国，都可能导致油价跌至每桶60美元以下，减少成员国的现金流，从而失去补偿疫情期间损失的机会。
关键支柱是将沙特4月额外减产的100万桶/天的决定延期，以及俄罗斯13万桶日产量增加的豁免，这可能支持了欧佩克达成共识。
此外，欧佩克+并不认为随着油价持续上涨，美国页岩油产量会增加，这让生产商有机会弥补收入损失，同时保持其市场份额。要想让页岩油卷土重来，需要几方面:
1.石油需求回到疫情前的水平。
2.当前价格在较长一段时间内保持在持续水平。这对于恢复对页岩行业投资的信心，同时将风险最小化来说是至关重要的。上周美国能源信息报署的报告显示，美国石油日产量为1000万桶，比一年前的水平低310万桶。在目前的生产情景下，由于市场过度紧缩的前景、全球疫苗接种率的增加以及某些国家恢复危机前正常状态的可能性越来越大，预计3月份价格将超过每桶70美元。美国的燃料需求目前正在改善，尤其是汽油和煤油的需求分别增加了94.2万桶/天和30.5万桶/天，分别为815万桶/天和129万桶/天。
美国石油进口也在上升，而出口几乎没有变化，这表明在全国产量下降的情况下，需求在上升。冰冻天气的影响在炼油方面仍可看到，据最新报道，炼油厂的原油日产量为990万桶，比去年的正常水平下降了570万桶。汽油库存减少了1360万桶，满足了大部分汽油需求的增长。未来几周，随着墨西哥湾炼油厂重新开始运营，应该会有所改善。
上周末，美国参议院批准了一项1.9万亿美元的一揽子救助计划，预计该计划将加剧投机驱动的价格通胀。似乎价格水平、远期曲线似乎并不足以推动欧佩克决定放松减产, 或许随着全球经济的进一步开放、航班增加以及疫苗接种的推进，那么欧佩克+将可能放松削减，以满足2021年第二季度某个时候可能出现的需求增长。
上周，欧佩克+会议取得了一些意想不到的结果，很难预测4月份及以后的下一步行动。现在有两个驱动力，欧佩克+的减产和同样重要的沙特的自愿减产。一般来说，随着油价持续上涨们预计供应商将愿意增加产量，但欧佩克供应商何时能被说服增产仍极不确定。
即使欧佩克+在4月份同意增产，沙特仍可能不会急于放松自愿减产。沙特能源部长的声明在上一次记者招待会上证实了这一点，并暗示这些减产可能会持续到2021年第二季度，而且这些石油产量将分阶段放出。这表明，油价将不仅受到欧佩克+减产的支撑，也将受到沙特在2021年第2季度自愿额外减产的支撑。本周，布伦特原油价格一度突破每桶70美元。随着石油市场再次趋紧，石油的地缘政治风险溢价似乎又出现了。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
Saudi Surprise Cut May Have Lasting Effect On Oil Prices
The OPEC+ decision to roll over current cuts till the end of March has come as a surprise to the oil markets as it is different from the group's plan announced last December which has sent oil prices above $60.
Crude prices rallied last week to end in the $65-$70 range. Concerns about the speed of recovery of the global economy seemed to be one of the major drivers for OPEC+ to keep production increases to a minimum. The Saudi Energy Minister already voiced his ongoing concerns about the global economy two weeks before the OPEC+ meeting, and he pointed out that producers need not be complacent under current prices.
Another factor to consider is the fact that almost 5 million bpd of OPEC production has been off the markets since May last year. Bringing any of these barrels back could have triggered prices to fall below $60, reducing cash flows for its members, and resulting in losing the opportunity to compensate for losses made during the pandemic.
One of the key pillars of support is the rollover of the Saudi million bpd surprise cut in April, and the exemption of Russia to raise production by 130,000 bpd which may have supported the group to reach a consensus.
Furthermore, OPEC+ is not expecting US shale to boost production as prices continue to rise, giving producers an opportunity to compensate for lost revenues while preserving their market share. For shale oil to come back we need (1) to have oil demand returning to pre-pandemic levels, and (2) a sustained level of current prices over an extended period of time. This will be essential to restoring confidence in investing into the shale industry while minimizing risks. Last week’s EIA report showed the US production at 10 million bpd, 3.1 million bpd below its level a year ago. Under the current production scenarios, prices are expected to trade above $70 in March supported by prospects of market over-tightening, the increasing rate of global vaccination, and the increasing likelihood of certain countries returning to pre-crisis normality. Fuel demand in the US is currently improving, especially gasoline and kerosene whose demand rose by 942,000 bpd and 305,000 bpd w/w, respectively, to stand at 8.15 million bpd and 1.29 million bpd, respectively.
US oil imports are also rising, while exports are almost unchanged, suggesting rising demand amid decreasing national production. The impact of the freeze is still observed on the refining side, as the crude input to refineries was last reported to be 9.9 million bpd, reflecting a drop of 5.7 million bpd below its normal level last year. Most of the rise in gasoline demand was met using gasoline stocks which declined by 13.6 million barrels w/w. These numbers should improve in the weeks ahead as refineries on the Gulf of Mexico restart their operations.
Last weekend, the US senate has approved a $1.9 trillion relief package which is expected to increase speculation-driven price inflation. It seems price levels and even forward curves do not seem sufficient to drive an OPEC decision on easing cuts, and perhaps as we see a greater opening of global economies, an uptick in flight movements, and advancing vaccination campaigns, then OPEC+ will likely be easing cuts to meet demand growth which may happen at some point in Q-2 2021.
Last week, the OPEC+ meeting saw some unexpected results, and it is very hard to predict the next move in April and beyond. Now we have two drivers, the OPEC+ cuts and equally important the Saudi voluntary cuts. Generally, we would expect suppliers to be willing to increase production as prices continue to grow, yet when OPEC suppliers will be convinced to do so remains highly uncertain.
Even if OPEC+ agrees on a production hike in April, Saudi Arabia will likely still not be in a hurry to ease Its voluntary cuts immediately. Statements from the Saudi Energy Minister did confirm that at the last press conference, suggesting that these cuts may continue throughout Q-2 2021, and that these barrels will be brought back in a phased manner. This suggests that prices will be supported by not only the OPEC+ cuts, but also by Saudi voluntary cuts during Q-2 2021. This week, Brent has briefly traded above $70, as a result of rising tensions in the Middle East, caused by Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura facilities over the weekend. It seems then that the geopolitical risk premium in oil is back as oil markets are growing tighter once again.
