据ICIS-MRC网站3月9日莫斯科报道， 据烃加工公司表示，北美石化巨头的页岩气优势为该地区的投资提供了动力，主要是在美国。
然而，油价暴跌缩小了这一优势，并可能影响盈利能力。全球领先的数据和分析公司GlobalData表示，北美石油化工巨头努力有效地调整投资节奏，与市场趋势保持一致，将提高其竞争力，并抓住进一步的长期增长机会。
GlobalData的油气分析师John Paul Somavarapu评论道，原油价格的突然下跌明显影响了北美生产商的投资计划，他们现在需要在保持长期收益的同时有效地加快投资步伐。GlobalData预计，企业将会降低运营成本和资本支出，并专注于较少的资本密集型投资，以便在市场复苏之际站稳脚跟。
这场疫情及其对原料成本的影响，已促使北美的石油化工巨头宣布推迟项目。由于合同人员行动受到限制和旅行限制，在建项目的进度也受到影响。北美的石化产能增加主要集中在美国，通过页岩中丰富的乙烷供应，利用低成本原料。美国在建的石化产能约为2720万吨/年。紧随其后的是加拿大，以320万吨/年远居第二。
Somavarapu继续道，全球石化行业正在经历范式转变，原料选择、需求模式、政府政策等将发挥关键作用。从长远来看，北美，尤其是美国，在这些方面具有更大的优势。
由于汽车和建筑等终端市场需求疲软，2020年北美对聚合物的需求受到了影响。然而，随着全球经济逐步走向复苏，工业和商业活动预计将恢复正常，对聚合物的需求将会加强，并可能在中长期内达到新冠疫情前的水平。
Somavarapu补充道，生产商应该保持灵活性，管理好近期的限制条件，以获得中长期利益。作为全球最大的石化产品生产国和供应商之一，美国将期待抓住适当的增长机会。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
North American petrochemical producers might see long-term cost advantage by reducing CAPEX
The shale gas advantage of North American petrochemical majors provides a boost for investments in the region, primarily in the U.S., said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
However, the oil price crash narrowed this advantage and is likely to affect profitability. North American petrochemical majors that strive to pace investments efficiently, in line with market trends, will boost their competitiveness and seize further opportunities for growth over the long-term, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
John Paul Somavarapu, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The sudden decline in crude oil prices have distinctly affected the planned investments by the North American producers and they now need to efficiently pace investments while preserving long-term gains. GlobalData expects companies to lower their operating expenses and capital expenditures and focus on less capital intense investments to position themselves well while the market recovers."
The pandemic and the resulting impact on feedstock costs have prompted petrochemical majors in North America to announce project delays. The progress of under-construction projects was also affected due to limitations in the movement of contract personnel and travel restrictions. Petrochemical capacity additions in North America are largely concentrated in the US, leveraging low-cost feedstock through the abundant supply of ethane from shale. The U.S has around 27.2 MM metric tpy of petrochemical capacity under construction. It is followed by Canada, which is a distant second with 3.2 MM metric tpy.
Somavarapu continues: “The global petrochemical industry is experiencing a paradigm shift, and feedstock options, demand patterns, government policies, and so on will play a pivotal role. North America, particularly the U.S, is at a greater advantage when considering these factors in the longer term."
The demand for polymers in North America in 2020 was affected due to weaker demand in end markets such as automotive and construction. However, as the global economy progresses towards a gradual recovery, and industrial and business activities are slated to return to normal, demand for polymers is set to strengthen and will likely reach pre-COVID levels in the medium- to long-term.
Somavarapu adds: “Producers should remain flexible and manage near-term constraints to reap benefits in the mid-long term. The US, being one of the largest producers and supplier of petrochemicals globally, will look forward to seizing the right opportunities for growth."
