据石油新闻2021年3月7日迪拜报道，阿布扎比商业银行称，由于欧佩克+联盟3月4日决定在4月份保持相对稳定的原油供应，布伦特原油价格预计在2021年将平均为65.5美元/桶，2022年为67美元/桶，“石油市场将趋紧”。
阿布扎比商业银行在3月7日的一份报告中表示，“这不仅是由于4月份的产量决定，也是由于预期欧佩克+联盟可能会放慢去年4月为应对新冠病毒危机而宣布的减产步伐。” 阿布扎比商业银行在1月27日的一份报告中曾预测，今年布伦特原油平均价格将为54.7美元/桶，2022年将为60美元/桶。
在欧佩克+会议上，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣萨勒曼王子表示，沙特阿拉伯不会急于取消其承诺的自愿减产100万桶/天的计划。“我们现在相信，欧佩克+联盟将对需求的回升做出更积极的反应，并将重点放在进一步的再平衡上。因此，我们现在看到石油市场趋紧，包括库存进一步下降。”
控制着全球约一半原油产能的欧佩克+联盟将基本维持其配额，俄罗斯被允许日增13万桶，哈萨克斯坦被允许日增2万桶。如果算上沙特阿拉伯每天停止供应的100万桶，这意味着欧佩克+联盟将把大约800万桶/天的原油产量(约占新冠肺炎疫情大流行前供应量的8%)再禁售一个月。
布伦特原油价格在欧佩克+3月4日会议后大幅上涨，至每桶69.40美元。
李峻 编译自 石油新闻
原文如下：
UAE bank raises oil price forecasts above $65/b with 'tighter' market seen
Brent crude prices are expected to average $65.50/b in 2021 and $67/b in 2022, with a "tighter oil market" seen following the March 4 OPEC+ decision to keep supply relatively steady for April, according to Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.
"This is not only on the back of the April production decision, but also on the expectation that OPEC+ could taper the production cuts announced in April 2020 in response to the COVID crisis much more slowly than originally indicated," ADCB said in a March 7 report. The bank in a Jan. 27 report had forecast Brent at $54.70/b for 2021 and $60/b for 2022.
At the OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman indicated no rush to reverse the voluntary 1 million b/d cut promised by the kingdom. "We now believe that OPEC+ will be more responsive to a pickup in demand, with a focus on further rebalancing. Thus, we now see a tighter oil market, including a greater drawdown in inventories," the bank said.
The OPEC+ alliance, which controls about half of the world's production capacity, will mostly maintain its quotas, with Russia allowed a 130,000 b/d increase and Kazakhstan a 20,000 b/d rise. Including the 1 million b/d staying offline from Saudi Arabia, this means the group will keep about 8 million b/d of crude production, or roughly 8% of pre-pandemic supply, off the market for another month.
Oil prices rose sharply after the OPEC+ meeting with Brent at $69.40/b.
