据3月9日今日油价报道，尽管欧佩克+减产的意外延期将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶70美元，但这个一年多来最高的油价水平可能会抑制全球石油需求复苏，要知道，欧佩克+认为全球石油需求复苏仍是脆弱的。
在欧佩克上周出人意料地采取行动之后，原油价格的上涨速度比许多预测者一周前的预测的还要快，价格也更高，因为市场预计，随着需求的恢复，供应将出现短缺。
每桶70美元的油价对石油看涨者、石油公司和大多数预算依赖石油的欧佩克生产国来说都是好事，但对产油国或石油进口国来说则不是好消息。
此外，Axios的Dion Rabouin指出，油价上涨将给正在从疫情衰退中复苏的经济体带来额外的通胀压力，并推高许多商品和服务的价格，包括美国的机票和进口商品。
欧佩克+在4月基本保持产量不变的直接结果是，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的小范围减产豁免，共计15万桶/天，导致全球各地的汽油价格都将上涨。
汽油价格的上行压力早在欧佩克+出乎市场意料地提高产量水平和沙特阿拉伯在4月继续额外减产100万桶之前就已经开始了。不过，该欧佩克+推迟了减产幅度，令美国平均油价逼近每加仑3美元。
GasBuddy在欧佩克+会议后表示，一方面美国燃料需求复苏，另一方面原油价格上涨，可能将美国平均油价推升至每加仑3美元以上。
上一次美国全国汽油均价触及每加仑3美元是在2014年10月。三年前，也就是2018年，美国平均油价接近每加仑2.97美元。
GasBuddy表示，延长减产期限会加剧供需不平衡，如果全球需求继续复苏，油价将面临更大的上涨压力。随着美国汽车司机以疫情开始以来最快的速度恢复加油，经济似乎有可能持续复苏。GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan表示:“我预测美国平均油价有70%的可能性将达到每加仑3美元，这是自2014年以来从未见过的水平，主要原因是欧佩克反对提高石油产量。”
数据显示，美国汽油需求周五较前一周增加4.9%，为疫情开始以来最高水准。De Haan在推特上表示，自2月20日以来，美国汽油需求从未出现过周环比下降。
伍德曼肯兹宏观石油副总裁安-路易斯·希特尔表示：“风险在于，这些高油价将抑制暂时的全球复苏。但沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹王子坚定地表示，欧佩克+必须了解需求上升的具体迹象，然后再开始生产。”
高企的油价也将对通胀构成强大的上行压力，通胀可能加速超过美联储的目标和全球其他货币政策决策者的目标。
在欧佩克+出人意料的举动下，欧佩克事实上的领导者、全球最大石油出口国沙特阿拉伯押注于过度收紧市场，以在短期内获得更高的石油收入，押注于美国页岩油这次将着眼于更高的利润而不是产量的预期，这与近年来任何一次油价飙升都不同。
超过14个月来最高的油价可能会损害全球石油需求的复苏，这一迹象表明，沙特希望在采取行动放松减产之前，全球石油需求能显著改善。
王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下：
$70 Oil May Cause Slowdown In Demand Recovery
While the unexpected rollover of the OPEC+ production cuts sent Brent Crude prices up to $70 a barrel, the highest oil prices in more than a year could dampen global oil demand recovery, which the OPEC+ group itself still sees as fragile.
After the surprise OPEC+ move last week, crude oil prices rallied faster and higher than many forecasters had predicted just a week ago as the market expects supply shortages amid recovering demand.
Oil at $70 a barrel is good for oil bulls, oil companies, and the oil-dependent budgets of most OPEC+ producers, but it is not good news for prices at the pump or oil-importing nations, including the key demand growth drivers China and India.
In addition, higher oil prices will put additional inflationary pressure on economies recovering from the pandemic slump, and raise the prices of many goods and services, including airplane tickets and imported goods in the United States, Dion Rabouin of Axios notes.
The immediate result of OPEC+ keeping production basically unchanged in April—with small exemptions for Russia and Kazakhstan totaling 150,000 bpd—will be higher gasoline prices everywhere, from the United States to India.
The upward pressure on gasoline prices had already begun even before the OPEC+ group surprised the market by rolling over production levels and Saudi Arabia keeping its extra 1-million-bpd cut into April.
The alliance's delayed easing of the cuts, however, puts $3 a gallon national U.S. average price within sight.
Recovering fuel demand in the United States on the one hand, and the rallying crude oil prices, on the other hand, could push the national average to above $3 a gallon by Memorial Day, GasBuddy said after the OPEC+ meeting last week.
The last time the U.S. national average hit $3 per gallon was in October 2014. Three years ago, in 2018, the national average came close to the $3 threshold, at $2.97 per gallon.
"Extending the production cuts maintains a growing imbalance between demand and supply, and puts more pressure on oil prices to rise, should global demand continue to recover. A continued recovery seems likely, led by American motorists filling their tanks at the fastest pace since the pandemic began. I predict the national average now has 70% odds of reaching $3 per gallon, a level not seen since 2014, primarily due to OPEC's opposition to raising oil production," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
According to Pay with GasBuddy data, U.S. gasoline demand increased on Friday by 4.9 percent week over week, to its highest level since the pandemic began. U.S. gasoline demand hasn't seen a daily week-on-week drop since February 20, De Haan tweeted on Saturday.
"The risk is these higher prices will dampen the tentative global recovery. But the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz, is adamant OPEC+ must watch for concrete signs of a demand rise before he moves on production," Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said, commenting on the OPEC+ rollover.
The high oil prices are also expected to put strong upward pressure on inflation, which could accelerate beyond the Fed's targets and the targets of other monetary policy decision-makers around the world.
With the surprise OPEC+ move, OPEC's de facto leader and top global oil exporter Saudi Arabia is betting on overtightening the market to reap higher oil revenues in the short term, gambling on expectations that U.S. shale will look at higher profits instead of production this time, unlike in any of the previous oil price spikes in recent years.
The highest oil prices in more than 14 months could hurt global oil demand recovery, the very indicator that the Saudis want significantly improved before moving to ease the production cuts.
