据油价网报道，摩根大通银行3月12日表示，如果油价维持在当前水平，目前的油价足以保证美国页岩活动在今年下半年增加。
摩根大通银行分析师在由路透社报道的每周报告中说，“在当前的价格，大多数美国本土运营商是有利可图的，这使得从大型上市公司到私人运营商的一大批运营商处于有利地位，可以在今年下半年增加业务，并在2022年为更高的业务量建立坚实的势头。”
3月12日早间，美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油现货价格超过每桶65美元，截止美国东部时间上午7点，为每桶65.76美元。
在美国原油产量在去年出现有史以来最大的年度下降以后，美国页岩部门并不急于在今年增加产量，尽管今年油价上涨了30%。美国生产商，尤其是大型上市石油公司预计将坚持资本纪律，奖励股东，而不是提高产量。然而，规模较小的私营石油公司正受益于油价上涨，因为它们赚取现金的主要方式是增加产量。这可能会再次破坏欧佩克+的石油管理政策。
多数分析师认为，大多数上市石油公司将遵守资本纪律。欧佩克+集团似乎还押注于这样的预期：美国页岩这回将寻求更高的利润，而不是产量——不同于近几年来的任何一次油价飙升——除了俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的小幅增加产量以外，欧佩克+集团决定从4月份起不提高产量。
鉴于最近的高油价，摩根大通银行预计美国今年的平均石油日产量将达到1136万桶，略高于去年的1132万桶。
美国能源信息署（EIA）仍认为今年美国石油日产量将比去年略有下降，为1110万桶。然而，在本周发布的最新短期能源展望（STEO）报告中，由于原油价格预期将上涨，EIA预计美国明年的石油日产量为1200万桶，比其2月STEO报告中的预测增加50万桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
JP Morgan: U.S. Shale Production Set To Climb
Current oil prices are high enough to warrant increased U.S. shale activity in the second half of the year if prices hold around these levels, according to JP Morgan.
“At current prices, most U.S. onshore operators are economic, leaving a vast group of operators, from large public companies to private players, in good position to ramp up activity in 2H21 and build solid momentum for higher volumes in 2022,” analysts at JP Morgan said in a weekly note as carried by Reuters.
Early on Friday, the spot U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading at over $65 per barrel, at $65.76 as of 7 a.m. ET.
Following the largest ever annual collapse in U.S. crude oil production in 2020, the U.S. shale patch is not rushing to ramp up production in 2021, even though oil prices have rallied by 30 percent this year. U.S. producers, especially large listed companies, are expected to stick to capital discipline and reward shareholders rather than ramp up production. However, smaller privately held oil firms are benefiting from higher oil prices as their primary way of generating cash is increased production. This could spoil the oil management policy of the OPEC+ group again.
Most analysts believe that most public companies will stick to discipline. OPEC+ also seems to have gambled on expectations that U.S. shale will look at higher profits instead of production this time - unlike in any of the previous oil price spikes in recent years - when it decided not to raise production from April, except for small increases for Russia and Kazakhstan.
In view of the recent high prices, JP Morgan now expects U.S. oil production to average 11.36 million bpd in 2021, slightly up from 11.32 million bpd last year.
The EIA still sees U.S. crude oil production this year slightly down from last year, at 11.1 million bpd. However, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published this week, EIA expects U.S. production in 2022 at 12.0 million bpd, up by 500,000 bpd compared to the February STEO forecast because of higher expected crude oil prices.
