据ICIS-MRC网站3月15日莫斯科报道，根据烃加工网显示，未来6个月，全球炼油厂将大幅增加原油加工量，以稳定汽油和柴油等燃料的库存，即便旅行和服务业企业仍将受到新冠疫情的实质性控制。
根据美国能源信息署(EIA)每周公布的可靠库存数据显示，第二季度，尤其是第三季度，加工量预期上升以及原油库存的相应减少，推动了期货价格上涨，并导致价差收紧。石油市场从去年的大规模生产过剩迅速演变为供应不足，这一点在美国表现得最为明显。
3月5日，美国战略石油储备以外的原油和产品库存为12.83亿桶，仅比过去五年的平均水平高出1%，即高出1,200万桶。原油库存较5年平均水平高出6%，即2,900万桶，主要由于上个月德州寒冷天气和停电导致炼油厂供应中断。但成品燃料和中间炼油产品的库存已降至1500万桶，比2016-2020年的平均水平低2%。汽油短缺变得尤为严重，库存为1500万桶，比五年平均水平低6%。
自去年7月以来，原油和成品油的总库存减少了1.68亿桶，在很大程度上扭转了去年3-6月期间因疫情和沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯之间的数量战争而增加的1.98亿桶。未来几个月，美国炼油厂将不得不加快原油加工和燃料生产，以防止库存进一步减少。
如果对旅行、服务和国际客运航空的新冠疫情控制放松，将对消费产生更大的推动作用。但有必要强调的是，即使保持控制，防止燃料库存下降到不受欢迎的低水平，原油加工也必须加快。
石油库存的枯竭在美国最为明显，因为美国有高频率的实时数据，但这种现象是世界性的。
根据EIA数据显示，自去年7月以来，经合组织（OECD）成员国的商业石油库存已减少约2.84亿桶，抵消了去年2-6月期间增加的3.35亿桶的大部分。今年3月，OECD库存可能会略低于过去5年的平均水平，这是自去年2月疫情蔓延以来的首次。
郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC
原文如下：
Global oil inventories to become tight by mid-2021
Global refineries will increase crude processing sharply over the next six months to stabilise stocks of fuels such as gasoline and diesel – even if substantial coronavirus controls remain on travel and service sector businesses, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.
The prospective rise in processing and consequent draw down in crude inventories in the second and especially third quarters is what has been boosting futures prices and causing calendar spreads to tighten. The oil market’s rapid evolution from a massive production surplus last year to deficit has been most evident in the United States, where reliable data on stocks is published weekly by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
U.S. inventories of crude and products outside the strategic petroleum reserve amounted to 1,283 million barrels on March 5, which was just 12 million barrels or 1% above the previous five-year average. Crude stocks were 29 million barrels or 6% above the five-year average, mostly as result of the disruption to refineries caused by cold weather and power failures in Texas last month.
But inventories of finished fuels and intermediate refinery products had already fallen to 15 million barrels or 2% below the average for 2016-2020. The gasoline shortfall has become particularly severe, with inventories 15 million barrels or 6% below the five-year average.
Total stocks of crude and products have fallen by 168 million barrels since July, largely reversing the 198 million build between March and June associated with the epidemic and volume war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. In the next few months, U.S. refineries will have to accelerate crude processing and fuel production to prevent stocks from depleting further.
If coronavirus controls on travel, services and international passenger aviation are relaxed, that would provide an even bigger boost to consumption. But it is important to stress that crude processing will have to accelerate even if controls are maintained to prevent fuel stocks from eroding to undesirably low levels.
The depletion of petroleum inventories is most obvious in the United States because of its high-frequency real-time data, but the phenomenon is worldwide.
Commercial petroleum inventories in the OECD countries have fallen by around 284 million barrels since July, reversing most of the 335 million barrel build between last February and June, according to the EIA. In March, OECD inventories are likely to fall slightly below the average for the previous five years, for the first time since the epidemic started to spread in February last year.
