据ICIS网站3月11日消息 欧佩克周四表示，预计2021年原油需求反弹可能使消费大幅低于2019年的水平，因为运输业的持续疲软会影响经济复苏的步伐。
欧佩克表示，在全球健康工业活动的支持下，石化产品的需求将保持健康。
根据欧佩克的数据，全球石油需求今年可能增长590万桶/日，此前一年的平均需求量增长960万桶/日。2021年的平均需求量预计为9630万桶/天。
欧佩克下调了对2021年前6个月的预期，原因是采取措施控制欧洲感染人数激增和美国失业率居高不下。
对疫苗计划推动下半年经济复苏的更强烈预期，导致欧佩克上调了对第三季度及以后需求的预测，但由于全球大部分地区的大部分客运机队停飞，运输可能仍将成为拖累因素。
欧佩克在月度石油报告中表示：“石油密集型行业，尤其是旅游和运输业，将继续受到不成比例的影响，相对于全球经济增长，2020年石油需求将受到更大的负面影响，2021年石油需求的正贡献将更低。”
王磊 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下：
2021 crude demand to undershoot 2019 on transport sector woes - OPEC
A projected rebound in crude oil demand in 2021 is likely to leave consumption substantially below 2019 levels, as continuing transport sector weakness bites into the pace of the recovery, OPEC said on Thursday.
Supported by healthy industrial activity across the world, demand for petrochemicals will remain healthy, said the producing cartel.
Global oil demand is likely to grow by 5.9m bbl/day this year after collapsing by an average of 9.6m bbl/day the previous year, according to OPEC; average demand for 2021 is expected at 96.3m bbl/day.
The oil cartel downgraded expectations for the first six months of 2021 on the back of measures to control surging infection numbers in Europe and high unemployment in the US.
Stronger expectations of a vaccine programme-driven recovery in the second half of the year has led OPEC to up its projections for demand through the third quarter and beyond but, with the bulk of passenger air fleets grounded across much of the world, transport is likely to remain a drag.
“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said in its monthly oil report.
