据3月23日FXSTREET报道，华侨银行上周表示，大量的看跌消息重创了能源行业，布伦特原油本周暴跌6.8%，低于其他大宗商品资产。华侨银行策略师预计，随着第一季度接近尾声和下周的欧佩克+会议，大家似乎不愿在65美元以上追加的这种谨慎的基调将保持不变。
面对大量看跌因素——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）似乎不那么悲观，欧洲疫苗接种计划受挫，中美关再次出现口水战——油价受到的打击比其金属价格更严重。
美国国债收益率升至1.70%以上和美元走强也使油价的牛市更加复杂，而美国原油和汽油库存的共同上涨又增加了一层阻力。
我们一直认为，尽管原油价格需要技术性回调，但65美元将是一个适当的价格，可以再次开始建立长期地位。
上周的暴跌可能会冲掉一些保证金上的过度投机，这对石油继续上涨趋势至关重要。我们认为，本周油价可能会小幅反弹，中期交易区间在65美元至70美元之间。
冯于荣 摘译自 FXSTREET
原文如下：
Brent Oil set to hover comfortably in the $65-$70 range – OCBC
Energy was hard hit by the deluge of bearish news last week, underperforming other commodity assets as Brent plunged 6.8% on the week. Buyers looked reluctant to place bids above $65 and strategists at OCBC Bank expect the cautious tone to hold as we approach the end of Q1 and next week’s OPEC+ meeting.
Key quotes
“Faced with a deluge of bearish factors – a seemingly less-dovish FOMC, setbacks in Europe's vaccination drive and a fresh spat in US-China relations – oil took a more severe beating than its base metals counterpart. The rise in US Treasury yields to above 1.70% and the firming US dollar also complicated oil's bull run, while the combined rise in US crude oil and gasoline stocks added another layer of headwind.”
“We have always opined that while crude oil is in need for a technical correction, $65 would be a decent level to begin building a long position again.”
“Last week's collapse would have flushed out some of the excessive spec longs on the margin, which is vital for oil to continue its upward trend.”
“We think oil could see a slight rebound this week and trade largely range-bound in the medium-term between $65 to $70.
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