据油价网3月24日消息称，在充满挑战的2020年之后，石油和天然气需求的复苏—在疫苗接种和欧佩克+供应削减的支持下—对钻井活动是有利的。雷斯塔能源预计，2021年全球钻井数将达到54000口左右，比2020年增加12%。到2022年，钻探量将进一步增加，同比增加19%，达到约64500口井，但勘探活动仍将低于2019年的73000口井。
到2021年，陆上钻井活动预计将增加12%，从2020年的46000口井增加到约51700口井，到2022年将再增加19%，达到约61700口井。尽管钻探活动有所增加，但似乎仍需要更多时间才能恢复到大流行前的水平，因为2019年陆上油井数量接近7.1万口。
在海上领域，我们预计2021年和2022年的钻井活动将同比增长约10%。这将使今年钻探的海上油井数量从2020年的不足2300口增加到近2500口，我们预计到2022年相应的数量将超过2700口。
实际上，这种健康的复苏将推动未来两年的海上钻井活动超过大流行前的水平，因为2019年全球钻探的海上油井数量略低于2500口。这意味着近海钻探的恢复将在2021年发生，2022年将是进一步增长的一年。
雷斯塔能源研究分析师Daniel Holmedal表示：“与前几年相比，北美页岩板块主导的产量增长，我们预计中东的陆上和海上大陆架以及南美的深水市场将成为未来增长的主要驱动力。为了恢复产量水平，运营商将不得不启动新的钻井计划，同时对现有油井进行维护和改进，这将为油井服务供应商在未来几年带来重大机遇。”
陆上部分仍然更加敏感，特别是在北美页岩领域，在那里，运营商之间持续的资本约束将大部分活动推至2022年及以后。以页岩为重点的作业者已经制定了相对平坦的2021年钻井和完井预算。该地区的油井服务支出预计将从2020年的500亿美元增长至2021年的540亿美元，增产部分的增长速度将高于其他油井服务部分。
朱佳妮 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
118,500 Oil & Gas Wells To Be Drilled Worldwide Through 2022
After a challenging 2020, the oil and gas demand recovery – supported by vaccination efforts and OPEC+ supply cuts – is proving good for drilling activity. Rystad Energy expects around 54,000 wells to be drilled worldwide in 2021, a 12% increase from 2020 levels. In 2022 drilling is set to increase even more, by another 19% year-on-year to about 64,500 wells, though activity will still fall short of the 73,000 wells drilled in 2019.
onshore drilling activity is expected to increase by 12% from the 46,000 wells drilled in 2020 to about 51,700 wells in 2021, before climbing by another 19% in 2022 to reach around 61,700 wells. Despite the increased activity, it still looks like drilling needs some more time to recover to pre-pandemic levels, as the onshore well count was nearly 71,000 in 2019.
In the offshore segment, we expect drilling activity to increase year-on-year by about 10% in both 2021 and 2022. This will bring the number of offshore wells drilled to nearly 2,500 this year, from less than 2,300 in 2020, and we forecast that the corresponding number for 2022 will surpass 2,700.
Such a healthy recovery is in fact poised to propel offshore drilling activity beyond pre-pandemic levels during the next two years, as the number of offshore wells drilled globally in 2019 was just shy of 2,500. This means the recovery of offshore drilling will already happen in 2021, with 2022 being a year of further growth.
“In contrast to previous years, when the North American shale sector-led production growth, we expect the onshore and offshore shelf in the Middle East and the deepwater market in South America to be the main drivers of growth going forward. To recover production levels, operators will have to launch new drilling plans in tandem with maintenance and enhancement programs for existing wells, opening significant opportunities for well service suppliers in the years ahead,” says Daniel Holmedal, energy research analyst at Rystad Energy.
The onshore segment remains more sensitive, particularly within the North American shale sector, where continued capital discipline among operators is pushing most activity out to 2022 and beyond. Shale-focused operators have already guided relatively flat drilling and completion budgets for 2021. Well services spending in the region is expected to grow from $50 billion in 2020 to $54 billion in 2021, with the stimulation segment seeing higher growth compared to other well services segments.
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