据全球油气新闻3月22日消息，尽管欧洲疫苗计划的问题和原油购买放缓导致上周四期货价格下跌超过7%，但来自世界各地的数据显示需求正在稳步复苏，尽管是断断续续的。
一年前，由于疫情的肆虐把数十亿人困在家中，闲置的喷气客机比翼地停在机场的滑行道上。如今，美国的机场呈现出自疫情开始以来最繁忙的景象，空乘人员正纷纷从休假中返回。
空乘行业是受疫情打击最严重的行业之一，这些向正常迈进的步骤只是世界开始再次移动的众多迹象之一。汽油、柴油和航空燃料的消耗量达到一年多来的最高水平。
市场的不安可能仍是合理的。意大利的新一轮封锁表明，如果疫情再次加速传播，任何进展都可能很快回到原点。然而，整个夏季(传统上是石油需求的高峰期)，情况可能会继续好转。
132个国家接种了超过4.1亿剂疫苗。美国总统刚刚签署了一项1.9万亿美元的经济救助计划，使之成为法律，促使分析人士大幅提高了他们对经济增长的预期。
宝盛集团经济学和新一代研究负责人诺伯特•鲁克尔（Norbert Ruecker）表示： “由于经济复苏，刺激措施，疫苗接种的进展以及放缓的疫情措施，西方世界的石油需求似乎将反弹。欧洲的疫苗接种问题很难改变经济前景。”
根据国际能源署(IEA)的数据，在去年3月和4月疫情最严重的封锁期间，全球石油需求曾大幅下降30%，如今已回到2019年疫情前最高水平(略高于1亿桶/天)的95%左右。再加上欧佩克和欧佩克+的大幅减产，今年以来油价已回升逾20%，即便是在周四暴跌之后。
Flightradar24的数据显示，商业航班回到了疫情前相当水平的三分之二，这是自一年前航空交通大幅下滑以来最活跃的一次。在美国，机场的客流量有所增加，截至周四，已经连续8天每天客流量超过100万人次，这是自疫情开始以来从未发生过的情况。
航运数据显示，从2月到3月，汽油和柴油从美国墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂到墨西哥港口的流量加速增长，这再次表明人们对旅行再次感到乐观，这是因为拉美国家的度假胜地准备在春假期间吸引大量游客。
FGE亚洲石油主管Sri Paravaikkarasu表示，2021年亚洲航空燃油需求应该会逐渐改善，主要是受国内航班的推动。
但市场的全面复苏还有很长的路要走。欧洲的航空流量已经高于预期，但仍在疫情爆发前水平的三分之一左右徘徊。
Paravaikkarasu表示:“即使疫苗迅速大规模接种，边境完全开放也需要几个月的时间。鉴于采取谨慎的方式恢复国际航班，到2023年，亚洲的航油需求应该仅会恢复到疫情前的水平。”
裘寅 编译自 全球油气新闻
原文如下：
Despite some turbulence, global oil demand is on the route to recovery
Even as problems with Europe’s vaccine program and a slowdown of crude buying sent futures down more than 7% on Thursday, data from around the world showed a steady, albeit patchy, recovery in demand.
A year ago, idled jetliners were parked wing-tip to wing-tip on airport taxiways as a raging virus kept billions of people at home. Today, U.S. airports are the busiest since the pandemic started and flight attendants are returning from furlough.
These steps back toward normality from one of the industries hit hardest by Covid-19 is just one of many signs that the world is starting to move again. Consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are at the highest in more than a year.
The market’s jitters may still be justified. A renewed lockdown in Italy showed that any gains can be quickly lost if the spread of the virus accelerates again. Yet things are likely to keep improving through the summer, traditionally the peak period for oil demand.
More than 410 million vaccine doses have been administered across 132 countries. U.S. President Joe Biden just signed a $1.9 trillion economic rescue package into law, prompting analysts to significantly upgrade their growth forecasts.
“Western world oil demand looks set to bounce on the back of the economic recovery, stimulus, vaccination progress, and easing pandemic measures,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next-generation research at Julius Baer. “Europe’s vaccination hiccups hardly change the economic outlook.”
Global oil demand, which plunged as much as 30% during the worst of the pandemic lockdowns last March and April, is now back at about 95% of the pre-Covid high of just over 100 million barrels a day hit in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency. Together with aggressive output cuts from the OPEC+ alliance of oil exporters, that’s helped a revival in prices of more than 20% this year -- even after Thursday’s slump.
Commercial flights are back at two-thirds of comparable pre-Covid levels, the most activity since air traffic slumped a year ago, according to data from Flightradar24. In the U.S., foot traffic in airports has picked up, with a run of over 1 million daily passengers for eight straight days ending on Thursday -- something that hasn’t happened since the pandemic started.
In another indication of renewed optimism about travel, the flow of gasoline and diesel from refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast to Mexican ports accelerated from February into March as the Latin American country’s resorts prepared for an influx of tourists over spring break, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg.
Asian jet fuel demand should see a gradual improvement over the course of 2021, largely driven by domestic flights, said Sri Paravaikkarasu, Asia head of oil at FGE.
But it’s a long road to full recovery for the market. Europe’s air traffic has been higher than forecast, but is still languishing at about a third of pre-pandemic levels。
“Even with the rapid mass distribution of the vaccine, it will require months for borders to fully open,” Paravaikkarasu said. “Given the cautious approach to reinstating international flights, Asia’s jet fuel demand should only recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.”
免责声明：本网转载自其它媒体的文章，目的在于弘扬石化精神，传递更多石化信息，并不代表本网赞同其观点和对其真实性负责，在此我们谨向原作者和原媒体致以敬意。如果您认为本站文章侵犯了您的版权，请与我们联系，我们将第一时间删除。
