据Renewables Now网3月18日报道，根据IHS Markit的一份白皮书显示，每年新增的可再生能源发电能力将从2020年的200吉瓦上升到2022年的250吉瓦左右，然后到2024年增加到300吉瓦以上。
该增长主要是由风能和太阳能成本的下降以及企业和国家宣布的净零承诺推动的。
据IHS称，2015-2021年间，太阳能光伏发电（PV）系统的平均成本下降了54%，目前太阳能已成为“几乎所有地方的首选资源”。其将占2021-2024年间新增可再生能源产能的大部分。
德国、意大利、西班牙、韩国和其他国家最近已经提高或打算提高太阳能目标。
去年陆上风电的装机容量达到创纪录水平，新增装机容量近120GW。该市场研究公司预计，2021年将是另一个强劲的年份，美国的开发商将赶在这些市场的补贴年底到期之前完成项目。
然而，欧洲某些地区的“后院原则”阻止以及太阳能的竞争力日益增强，阻碍了风力在欧洲的发展。该白皮书称，然而，最先进的涡轮机的成本效率，容量超过5兆瓦，负荷达到40%，使它们成为经济的选择。
海上风电的情况看起来比较乐观，2021年的装机容量预计将达到11吉瓦，比2020年翻了一番。中国装机容量激增，而日本、英国和波兰都提出了更高的海上风电目标。在美国，该行业再一次获得了强有力的支持。
IHS Markit指出，拍卖和企业买家是支持未来可再生能源增长的两个重要因素。该公司称，厄瓜多尔和缅甸等新兴市场在2020年首次举行了可再生能源拍卖，越南（将进行首次太阳能招标）、菲律宾和斯洛伐克等新兴市场可能在2021年加入拍卖行列。与此同时，企业购电协议（CPPA）也在不断上升。在美国，新的企业承购交易几乎与2020年所有其他可再生能源合约的交易持平。
在能源行业，特别是总部位于欧洲的英国石油(BP)、壳牌(Shell)和道达尔(Total)等油气巨头，也在加大对可再生能源的投资。根据IHS Markit的数据显示，油气公司2019年进行了18次太阳能和风能收购，2020年为17次，而2018年仅为9次。
郝芬 译自 Renewables Now
原文如下：
IHS Markit sees up to 50% increase in annual renewables installs by 2024
Annual renewable power generation capacity additions will rise from 200 GW in 2020 to around 250 GW in 2022 and then to more than 300 GW in 2024, according to a white paper by IHS Markit.
This growth is being driven mainly by the falling costs of wind and solar, and the net-zero commitments that companies and countries are announcing.
The average solar photovoltaic (PV) system costs have fallen by 54% between 2015 and 2021 and solar is now a “preferred resource almost everywhere”, IHS said. It will account for the majority of new renewables capacity added between 2021 and 2024.
Germany, Italy, Spain, South Korea, and other countries have recently raised or intend to raise their solar targets.
onshore wind achieved record installations in 2020 with almost 120 GW of new capacity and the market research company expects 2021 to be another strong year with developers in the US rushing to complete projects before subsidies in these markets expire at year-end.
The growth of wind in Europe, however, is being hampered by a "not in my backyard" pushback in certain parts of the continent and the growing competitiveness of solar. "Yet, the cost efficiency of state-of-the-art turbines, with capacities above 5 MW and loads reaching 40%, make them economic options," the white paper said.
Things look brighter for offshore wind, where installations in 2021 are expected to reach 11 GW, doubling the 2020 figure. There is a boom in capacity additions in China, while Japan, the UK and Poland have introduced higher offshore wind goals. In the US, the sector once again enjoys strong support.
IHS Markit pointed to auctions and corporate buyers as the two important factors supporting future growth in renewables.
"New markets like Ecuador and Myanmar held their first renewables auctions in 2020, and newcomers like Vietnam (which will have its first solar tender), the Philippines, and Slovakia will likely join them in 2021," the company said. At the same time, corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs) are definitely on the rise. In the US, new corporate offtake deals nearly matched those of all other renewables contracting in 2020.
Within the energy industry, oil and gas majors, especially those based in Europe such as BP, Shell and Total, are also boosting investments in renewables. According to IHS Markit, oil and gas companies made 18 solar and wind acquisitions in 2019 and 17 in 2020, up from just with nine in 2018.
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