据油价网3月18日消息：国际能源署(IEA)在一份新报告中表示，由于燃料效率的提高和电动汽车的日益普及，全球汽油可能已达到顶峰，并指出这些趋势抵消了新兴经济体流动性的增长。
这份展望未来五年的报告还指出，由于政府政策支持更加强劲，有利于可再生能源和行为的改变，石油需求峰值可能即将到来。
IEA负责人Fatih Birol说：“ 新冠肺炎危机导致了全球石油需求的历史性下降，但这种下降不一定会持续。实现有序的石油过渡对于实现气候目标至关重要，但这需要政府做出重大政策调整以及行为方式的加速转变。否则，从现在到2026年，全球石油需求每年都会增加。”
IEA预计，在缺乏更强有力的能源政策的情况下，到2026年全球石油需求将增长约1000万桶/天，其中一半将来自中东关闭的产能。这将再次增加欧佩克在国际市场上的影响力，代价是美国页岩钻探商需要更高的油价才能恢复生产增长。
然而，所需的一些额外石油供应将不得不来自新的产能。根据IEA数据，新产能约为500万桶/天。不过，该机构认为目前不必着急，因为在疫情大流行期间，石油闲置产能约为900万桶/天。
Birol表示，尽管石油需求在增加，但没有任何一家油气公司会不受到清洁能源转型的影响，因此，该行业的每个部门都将需要考虑如何应对，因为在推动全球净零排放势头不断增强的情况下，减排是化石燃料行业面临的最大问题。
冯娟 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Gasoline Demand May Never Fully Recover
Global gasoline may have peaked, thanks to fuel efficiency gains and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, the International Energy Agency said in a new report, noting that these trends offset growth in mobility in emerging economies.
The report, which looks at the next five years, also suggests peak oil demand may be near, thanks to stronger government policies—if they materialize—in favor of renewable energy, and behavioral changes.
“The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic decline in global oil demand – but not necessarily a lasting one,” IEA’s chief, Fatih Birol, said. “Achieving an orderly transition away from oil is essential to meet climate goals, but it will require major policy changes from governments as well as accelerated behavioural changes. Without that, global oil demand is set to increase every year between now and 2026.”
In the absence of stronger energy policies, the IEA projects global oil demand growth of some 10 million bpd by 2026, half of which would come from the Middle East from shut-in capacity. This would once again increase OPEC’s clout on international markets at the expense of U.S. shale drillers, who need higher oil prices before they return to production growth.
Some of the additional supply of oil that will be needed will have to come from new production capacity, however. According to the IEA, this new production capacity is around 5 million bpd. There is no rush, however, because right now, amid the pandemic, there is some 9 million bpd in spare oil production capacity, the agency noted.
Even with demand for oil on the rise, however, no part of the industry will remain untouched by the energy transition, Birol said.
“No oil and gas company will be unaffected by clean energy transitions, so every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond as momentum builds behind the world’s drive for net-zero emissions,” he said, noting things like carbon capture and methane emission reduction among the biggest issues facing the fossil fuel industry.
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