据油价网3月17日消息称，周三，国际能源机构(IEA)在其2021年石油年度报告中做出了预测，全球石油需求将需要到2023年才能恢复到疫情前的1亿桶/天的水平，但2019冠状病毒病将永远改变消费者的部分行为，到2026年全球汽油需求可能已经超过峰值。
到2026年，全球石油需求预计将达到1.041亿桶/天，比2019年水平增加440万桶/天。尽管如此，预计2025年的石油消费量将比该机构去年的估计低250万桶/天。
IEA在其年度报告中表示：“全球石油需求仍在受疫情影响的影响，不太可能赶上疫情之前的轨迹。”
总部位于巴黎的该机构指出，尽管石油需求将从危机的水平开始增长，但“在后疫情时代，石油市场可能不会恢复到‘正常'状态。”
全球汽油需求可能在2019年达到峰值，因为燃油效率的提高和向电动汽车的转变“超过了发展中国家强劲的机动性增长”。
IEA预测，航空燃油是石油需求中受冲击最严重的部分，到2024年，其需求不会恢复到2019年的水平，并补充说，由于疫情期间的在线会议减少了需求，商务旅行可能会永远改变。
IEA表示，炼油行业将继续与产能过剩作斗争，全球范围内新一轮炼油合理化浪潮正在进行。
该机构表示，在已经宣布的360万桶/天关闭炼油厂的基础上，至少需要再关闭600万桶/天，才能使全球炼油利用率恢复到80%以上的正常水平。
曹海斌 摘译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Oil Demand Will Not Return To Pre-Crisis Levels Until 2023
Global oil demand will take until 2023 to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd, but COVID-19 will change parts of consumer behavior forever with global gasoline demand likely past its peak already, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday in its annual Oil 2021 report with projections through 2026.
By 2026, global oil demand is expected at 104.1 million bpd, up by 4.4 million bpd compared to 2019 levels. Still, consumption in 2025 is projected 2.5 million bpd lower than the agency’s estimates from last year.
“Global oil demand, still reeling from the effects of the pandemic, is unlikely to catch up with its pre-Covid trajectory,” the IEA said in its annual report.
Although oil demand is set to grow from the crisis levels, “there may be no return to ‘normal’ for the oil market in the post-Covid era,” the Paris-based agency noted.
Gasoline demand worldwide likely saw its peak in 2019 because fuel efficiency gains and a shift to electric vehicles (EVs) “eclipse robust mobility growth in the developing world.”
Demand for jet fuel—the hardest hit segment of oil demand—will not return to 2019 levels by 2024, the IEA forecasts, adding that business travel could be forever changed, with muted demand due to the online meetings during the pandemic.
The refining sector will continue to struggle with excess capacity, and a new wave of refinery rationalization around the world is underway, said the IEA.
At least 6 million bpd of additional refinery shutdowns—on top of already announced 3.6 million bpd closures—will be necessary so that the global refining utilization rates return to normal levels of above 80 percent, the agency says.?
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