据油价网2021年3月15日报道，来自美国投资银行派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的克雷格•约翰逊日前表示，原油价格年内可能达到每桶100美元，并在今年年底前可能突破100美元大关。
约翰逊是在接受CNBC记者采访时发表上述讲话的。他表示，“我可以预见，油价从现在起的未来6至12个月时间里突破100美元。”他指出，原油价格仍有强劲的上行潜力。“在我们看来，油价可能有超过40%的上行空间回到2018年创下的旧的高点，” 约翰逊如是说。
约翰逊和其他金融专业人士一样，对原油价格做出了乐观的预测，这在很大程度上是受到美国国会上周批准的1.9万亿美元经济刺激计划的推动。人们普遍预计这个计划将刺激美国经济，提振石油需求。
全球需求复苏也是这些看涨油价预测的一个因素，尽管这种复苏并不均衡，在亚洲(尤其是中国)的复苏最为强劲，但在其他主要市场，恢复到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前水平的速度较慢。
然后是供应方面。欧佩克+决定维持其720万桶/天的减产计划，这使得布伦特原油价格在短期内突破了70美元/桶。普林斯顿能源顾问公司表示，如果欧佩克+继续限制产量，全球石油市场将出现约3.5% - 3.6%的需求缺口。而这一缺口确实有可能推动油价接近100美元。
然而，即使需求有所改善，也没有什么是确定的。据报道，中国的石油储存空间已经满了。在全球需求的另一个主要推动者印度，燃料油价格涨得如此之高，以致于抑制了需求。由于当前油价对印度来说太高，印度已经在为欧佩克的中东成员国寻找替代供应商。
但是，并非所有预测者对油价都如此乐观。路透社近期的一次调查结果显示，被调查者一致预计今年布伦特原油价格为59.07美元/桶。根据美国银行的调查数据，每个回答者的预测都不同，从未来5年的50-70美元/桶到今年的67美元/桶。高盛公司的预测是75美元/桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Another Investment Bank Is Betting On $100 Oil
Crude oil could hit $100 and top it, and this could happen before this year’s end, according to Craig Johnson from investment bank Piper Sandler.
Speaking to CNBC, Johnson said, “I could actually see a number that could be north of 100 in the next, say, six to ... 12 months from here,” noting the still strong upside potential of crude. “To us, it looks like you could have more than 40% upside to get back to the old highs in 2018”.
Johnson joins other financial professionals in their upbeat predictions for crude oil prices, largely driven by the $1.9-trillion economic stimulus package that Congress approved last week. That is widely expected to jumpstart the U.S. economy, boosting oil demand.
Global demand recovery is also a factor in these bullish oil price forecasts even if this recovery has been uneven, strongest in Asia and most notably China but slow to return to pre-pandemic levels in other key markets.
Then there is the supply side. OPEC+ has decided to keep its 7.2-million-bpd production cuts, which recently drove Brent over $70 a barrel, albeit briefly. If the cartel continues to limit production, the global oil market will swing into a deficit of some 3.5-3.6 percent of demand, according to Princeton Energy Advisors. And this deficit has the genuine potential to drive oil price closer to $100.
Yet nothing is certain, even with improving demand. China’s oil storage space is filled to capacity, according to reports. In India, another major driver of global demand, fuel prices have gone so high they are dampening demand. And the country is already looking for alternative suppliers to the Middle Eastern members of OPEC because current prices are too high for it.
Not all forecasters are so bullish, however. A recent Reuters poll revealed a consensus price projection of $59.07 a barrel for Brent crude. Individual forecasts vary from $50-70 over the next five years, according to Bank of America, to $67 a barrel this year, according to Barclays, and $75 by the third quarter, according to Goldman Sachs.
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