据油价网2021年3月16日报道，国际可再生能源署(IRENA)3月16日在一份报告中表示，
如果世界要实现《巴黎协定》规定的1.5摄氏度的目标，世界需要把能源投资转向低碳能源以及在2050年前把那些投资提高30%，总投资达到131万亿美元。
IRENA在其《世界能源转型展望》报告中指出，目前，政府计划到本世纪中叶前，在能源系统方面投入98万亿美元，但这一投资数字应该增加30%，以便使全球气温保持在《巴黎协定》规定的1.5摄氏度目标以内。
到2050年前，累计投资131万亿美元意味着清洁能源解决方案的年投资将达到4.4万亿美元。
根据IRENA，未来30年超过80%的投资或者每年大约4万亿美元投资需要投资于能源转型技术(不含化石燃料和核能)，如可再生能源、能源效率、最终用途电气化、电网、灵活创新(氢)和碳去除措施。
根据IRENA的分析，在2050年前，全球应将24万亿美元的投资从化石燃料重新转向能源转型技术。
在1.5摄氏度的方案中，到2050年前，全球化石燃料产量将下降75%以上，化石燃料总消费量将从2021年起持续下降。
IRENA表示，到2050年前，与2018年的水平相比，全球石油需求将大幅下降85%左右，要达到1.5摄氏度方案，燃煤发电必须逐步淘汰。
目前，即使许多预测者认为石油需求将在10年或20年内达到峰值，他们也都认为需求将在峰值后趋于稳定，而不是暴跌，而亚洲的煤炭需求在中国、印度和东南亚的引领下将继续上升。
要实现1.5摄氏度的目标，世界不仅需要大幅减少石油和煤炭需求，世界还需要大幅增加可再生能源产能，这需要增长10倍。IRENA表示，这意味着全球每年需要新增840吉瓦的可再生能源装机容量，而近年来每年新增大约200吉瓦。
IRENA总干事弗朗西斯科·卡梅拉在报告的情况说明中说，“最近的趋势表明，我们与应该达到的水平之间的差距不是在缩小，而是在扩大。我们正朝着错误的方向前进。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
The World Needs $131 Trillion In Clean Energy Investment By 2050
The world needs to shift energy investments to low-carbon energy sources and boost those investments by 30 percent to a total of US$131 trillion by 2050 if it is to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal of the Paris Agreement, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in a report on Tuesday.
Currently, government plans envisage U$98 trillion in energy systems by the middle of this century, but this should be boosted by 30 percent so that the world remains on the 1.5 degrees Celsius path of the Paris Agreement goals, IRENA said in its World Energy Transitions Outlook.
The US$131 trillion cumulative investment by 2050 would mean annual investments of U$4.4 trillion in clean energy solutions.
More than 80 percent of the investment over the next three decades, or some US$4 trillion a year, needs to be invested in energy transition technologies (excluding fossil fuels and nuclear) such as renewables, energy efficiency, end-use electrification, power grids, flexibility innovation (hydrogen), and carbon removal measures, according to IRENA.
According to the agency’s analysis, US$24 trillion of investment should be redirected fr In the 1.5°C Scenario, fossil fuel production should decline by more than 75 percent by 2050, with total fossil fuel consumption continuously declining from 2021 onwards.
Oil demand would decline significantly by around 85 percent by 2050 compared to the 2018 level, IRENA said, while coal as power generation has to be phased out for reaching a 1.5°C Scenario.
Currently, even if many forecasters say that peak oil demand will occur within a decade or two, all of them see demand plateauing, not plunging, after the peak, while coal demand in Asia continues to rise, led by China, India, and Southeast Asia.
The 1.5°C Scenario will not only need a drastic reduction of oil and coal demand. It will also need a significant increase in renewable energy capacity, which needs to grow tenfold. This would mean that annually, the world will need more than 840 GW of new renewable capacity additions, up from around 200 GW added each year in recent years, IRENA said.
“The recent trends show that the gap between where we are and where we should be is not decreasing but widening. We are heading in the wrong direction,” IRENA Director-General, Francesco La Camera, said in a note in the report.
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