据石油新闻2021年3月23日迪拜报道，世界最大的独立石油交易商维多公司亚洲主管迈克•穆勒3月23日表示，由于中国需求恢复以及美国提高其产量滞后，以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克+联盟和俄罗斯将推动全球石油库存在今年晚些时候回到2019年的水平。
穆勒3月23日在Conference Connection组织的2021年富查伊拉加注和燃料油论坛上表示，全球石油日需求仍比2019年水平低约500万至600万桶，中国的需求呈现上升趋势，欧洲将在未来几个月跟进。美国的石油日产量仍然在1100万桶的范围内，相比之下，去年年初的石油日产量约为1300万桶。
欧佩克+产量限制帮助推动了全球石油市场的强劲反弹，3月12日对布伦特原油的评估为每桶69.285美元，这是自2020年1月初以来的最高水平。根据对欧佩克+的调查，欧佩克+联盟2月份的日产量为3783万桶，为去年10月以来的最低水平。这是自去年7月全球经济从冠状病毒大流行最严重的时期复苏以来，欧佩克+开始缩减其前所未有的减产规模以后的首次月度环比下降。
穆勒表示，“鉴于今年迄今为止欧佩克 +联盟的凝聚力，欧佩克 +联盟有望保持市场上一定量的供应，以实现其将陆上和水上石油库存减少到2019年水平的既定目标。”“市场相信，欧佩克+联盟将在今年晚些时候达到这一目标，因此我们正在看到油价和曲线的形状。”
根据欧佩克3月份的月度报告，欧佩克自己预测今年全球石油日需求为9627万桶，比2019年的9998万桶低371万桶。
李峻 编译自 石油新闻
原文如下：
OPEC+ set to reach oil inventory goal later this year as US output lags: Vitol
The OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is set to push global oil inventories back to 2019 levels later this year with demand recovering in China and the US lagging on boosting its production, according to Mike Muller, Asia head of Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader.
Demand is still about 5-6 million b/d below 2019 levels, with China showing an upswing and Europe set to follow in the next few months, Muller said March 23 at the Fujairah Bunkering & Fuel Oil Forum 2021 organized by Conference Connection. US oil production is still in the low 11 million b/d range, compared with about 13 million b/d in early 2020, he said.
Collective OPEC+ production restraint has helped power a robust rally in the oil market, with assessing Dated Brent on March 12 at $69.285/b, its highest since early January 2020. The group's production in February was 37.83 million b/d, its lowest since October, according to the latest OPEC+ survey. It was the first month-on-month decline since the bloc began tapering its unprecedented production cuts in July, when the global economy took its first tentative steps in recovering from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.
"On the strength of the OPEC plus cohesion witnessed so far this year, OPEC plus is on track to keep a commensurate amount of supply off the market to meet their stated objective of seeing oil inventories onshore and on the water reduced to 2019 levels," Muller said. "The market believes OPEC plus will reach that objective at some point later this year, hence the price and the shape of the curve we're seeing."
OPEC itself is forecasting global oil demand of 96.27 million b/d for 2021, according to its March monthly report, which is 3.71 million b/d below the 99.98 million b/d in 2019.
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