据Oil Now 3月29日报道，Rystad Energy在一份报告中表示，对于石油和天然气公司来说，2021年是一个积极的开始，实际上这可能是该行业创收最好的一年。在过去的12个月里，油价大幅上涨，目前交易价格为60美元。同时，公司继续关注资本纪律，继去年投资下降30％后，今年的投资略有增加。油价的上涨和投资的限制导致石油和天然气生产商的自由现金流（FCF）大大增加。
Rystad Energy称去年运营现金减少了近2000亿美元，降幅约为35％。这意味着这些公司可用于开展新活动和向其所有者支付现金的现金较少。而去年的投资也下降了，下降了近1100亿美元，降幅约为30％。
今年运营现金预计会卷土重来，在Rystad Energy的基础案例中，布伦特原油价格为每桶54美元，上市公司的运营现金预计将达到5000亿美元左右，比去年增长了30％。
“然而用于投资的现金预计今年不会恢复，并且可能会继续与去年持平。” 总部位于挪威的咨询集团表示。
无论能源转型的情况如何，Rystad Energy预计全球石油需求将在2028年达到每天1.02亿桶的峰值，然后在2050年下降至约6200万桶。但重要的是目前供应量不足以满足这一需求。因此，边境盆地的勘探是关键，同时也伴随着风险。
Rystad Energy表示：“我们已基于多个参数分析了与边界勘探相关的风险和影响，包括石油系统、环境和政治因素，以及公司的兴趣与否。
圭亚那的低盈亏平衡价格、高质量原油和有利的投资环境使其成为深水勘探和生产的首选目的地， 这种情况在美国石油巨头埃克森美孚的带领下有增无减。
该公司最近承包了其第六艘钻井船——Noble Sam Croft，用于今年的生产和评估钻井财富。分析师称，这将是圭亚那海上钻井的最高纪录。
这家石油巨头已经发现了90多亿桶原油，它不仅在高产的Stabroek区块，还在其邻近的土地（例如Canje区块）寻求更多石油。目前Canje区块已经在进行2021年的三口井计划。
陈可可 摘译自 Oil Now
原文如下：
Cash flow bonanza for upstream industry in 2021, Guyana remains advantaged
The year 2021 has started out on a positive note for oil and gas companies – in fact, this might be the best year yet in terms of generating cash for the industry, Rystad Energy said in a report. Oil prices have strengthened considerably over the last 12 months and are currently trading in the $60s. Simultaneously companies are continuing to focus on capital discipline, have made only a modest increase in investments this year, following the 30% drop last year. The oil price growth and investment restraint have resulted in a considerable increase in free cash flows (FCF) for the oil and gas producers.
“Last year, cash from operations dropped almost $200 billion or around 35%. This implies that the companies had less cash available to finance new activity and pay out cash to their owners,” Rystad Energy said. “As a result, investments also dropped last year, falling by almost $110 billion or around 30%.”
This year, the cash from operations is expected to make a comeback, and in Rystad Energy’s base case with Brent price at $54 per barrel (bbl), the cash from operations for public companies is expected to reach around $500 billion, an increase of more than 30% compared to last year.
“However, the cash going into investments is not expected to recover this year and is likely to continue at the same level as last year,” the Norway-based consultancy group said.
Regardless of energy transition scenarios, Rystad Energy expects global oil demand will peak at 102 million barrels per day in 2028, before declining to about 62 million bpd by 2050. Significant, however, is that available supply falls short of meeting this demand. Therefore, exploration of frontier basins is key – and it comes with risks.
“We have analyzed the risks and impact associated with frontier exploration based on multiple parameters, including the petroleum system, environmental and political factors, as well as interest – or lack thereof – from companies,” Rystad Energy stated.
Guyana’s low breakeven prices, high quality crude and favourable investment climate have made it a preferred destination for deepwater exploration and production, and this is continuing unabated, led by U.S oil major ExxonMobil.
The company recently contracted its 6th drill ship – the Noble Sam Croft – for a production and appraisal drilling bonanza this year which analyst say will be a record for Guyana offshore.
The oil major has already found more than 9 billion barrels of crude and is gunning for more, not just at the prolific Stabroek Block, but at its adjacent acreages, such as the Canje Block where a three-well programme for 2021 is already underway.
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